Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2DET

DET

40-27-8

PHI

37-26-12

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPHI -108

DET · top performer

Alex DeBrincat

RW · #93

2Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Porter Martone

RW · #94

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:13
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	1	0	3	0	2	0	19:06
A. CoppC · #18	0	2	1	0	0	2	0	16:59
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	2	0	1	4	0	2	0	18:20
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	17:34
P. KaneRW · #88	1	2	1	1	1	0	0	17:27
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	5:59
D. LarkinC · #71	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	19:40
D. PerronLW · #57	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	16:22
L. RaymondLW · #23	1	0	0	3	0	0	2	20:14
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:00
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	16:08
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-1	0	5	1	0	20:44
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	1	2	0	0	3	0	23:35
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	10:49
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	17:45
M. SeiderD · #53	0	1	3	1	3	3	0	28:47

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	34	2	32	.941	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:56
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	15:01
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	-1	1	3	1	2	10:05
C. DvorakC · #22	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	19:25
T. FoersterRW · #71	1	0	0	4	2	0	0	16:19
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	9:29
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	9:58
T. KonecnyRW · #11	1	0	1	5	3	0	0	19:11
P. MartoneRW · #94	0	1	1	9	0	0	2	18:15
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	13:48
O. TippettRW · #74	0	1	0	2	4	0	0	18:12
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	0	2	3	0	0	20:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	12:58
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	23:35
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	22:48
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	3	0	24:57
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	12:38
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	19	4	15	.789	57:23

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 29

PHI5@

DET3

Apr 2

DET4@

PHI2today

Apr 9

PHI3@

DET6

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET-11253%

PHI-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 63 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat PHI 4-2. A. DeBrincat led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	1	1	2	4
PHI	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

DET won 2 · PHI won 0

DET

PHI

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·19:58
Porter Martone Snap Shot Wide Right
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·19:54
Owen Tippett shot blocked by Ben Chiarot
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·19:27
Takeaway by Cam York
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·19:21
Moritz Seider Wrist Shot Wide Left
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·19:20
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·19:20
Icing
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·19:12
Travis Konecny shot blocked by Moritz Seider
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·18:20
Giveaway by J.T. Compher
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·18:05
Trevor Zegras shot blocked by J.T. Compher
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·17:40
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·17:40
Icing
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·17:35
Giveaway by Cam York
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·17:15
Noah Cates hit Andrew Copp
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·17:06
Travis Sanheim hit Patrick Kane
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·16:35
Giveaway by Tyson Foerster
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·16:27
Takeaway by Jamie Drysdale
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·15:37
Rasmus Ristolainen Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·14:49
Emil Andrae Snap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·14:29
Giveaway by Matvei Michkov
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·14:27
Emmitt Finnie hit Denver Barkey
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·14:00
Carl Grundstrom hit David Perron
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·13:57
Giveaway by Cam York
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·13:52
Carl Grundstrom Backhand Wide Left
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·13:35
Luke Glendening faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·13:35
Puck in Benches
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·13:18
Takeaway by David Perron
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·13:09
Owen Tippett hit Simon Edvinsson
·
DET 4·PHI 2
3rd·12:56
Travis Sanheim shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson
·
DET 4·PHI 2

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·DET -112/PHI -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 4–2.

DET +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Porter Martone · PHI18:180.8174.4%78.7%18:18 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 74.4% CF · 78.7% xGF
Luke Glendening · PHI9:420.5361.1%63.0%9:42 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 61.1% CF · 63.0% xGF
Travis Konecny · PHI19:300.5377.3%81.6%19:30 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 77.3% CF · 81.6% xGF
J.T. Compher · DET19:120.4528.1%36.1%19:12 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 28.1% CF · 36.1% xGF
Dylan Larkin · DET19:540.4445.5%44.1%19:54 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 45.5% CF · 44.1% xGF
Tyson Foerster · PHI16:360.3380.0%79.2%16:36 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 80.0% CF · 79.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

John Gibson · DET32–2.941+1.8532–2 · .941 SV% · +1.85 GSAx
Samuel Ersson · PHI15–4.789-2.0315–4 · .789 SV% · -2.03 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.7%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
56.7%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.7%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.7%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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