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FINAL+2DET
DET

DET

40-27-8

42
PHI

PHI

37-26-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPHI -108

Recap · NHL

etroit Red Wings went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 4–2.

DET +1.5 cashed (PHI lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
Patrick Kane

Patrick Kane

RW · #88

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

PHI
Christian Dvorak

Christian Dvorak

C · #22

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Philadelphia Flyers · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
DET40-27-8PHI37-26-12
DET

DET

40-27-8

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
PHI

PHI

37-26-12

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

4

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 29PHIPHI5@DETDET3
Apr 2DETDET4@PHIPHI2today
Apr 9PHIPHI3@DETDET6

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET-11253%
PHIPHI-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DET beat PHI 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DET1124
PHI0112

Period scoring

DET won 2 · PHI won 0

1
0

1

1
1

2

2
1

3

DET
PHI

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DET 4·PHI 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DET 4·PHI 2

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Porter Martone Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  4. 3rd·19:54

    Owen Tippett shot blocked by Ben Chiarot

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  5. 3rd·19:27

    Takeaway by Cam York

    DET 4·PHI 2

  6. 3rd·19:21

    Moritz Seider Wrist Shot Wide Left

    DET 4·PHI 2

  7. 3rd·19:20

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  8. 3rd·19:20

    Icing

    DET 4·PHI 2

  9. 3rd·19:12

    Travis Konecny shot blocked by Moritz Seider

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  10. 3rd·18:20

    Giveaway by J.T. Compher

    DET 4·PHI 2

  11. 3rd·18:05

    Trevor Zegras shot blocked by J.T. Compher

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  12. 3rd·17:40

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Christian Dvorak

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  13. 3rd·17:40

    Icing

    DET 4·PHI 2

  14. 3rd·17:35

    Giveaway by Cam York

    DET 4·PHI 2

  15. 3rd·17:15

    Noah Cates hit Andrew Copp

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  16. 3rd·17:06

    Travis Sanheim hit Patrick Kane

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  17. 3rd·16:35

    Giveaway by Tyson Foerster

    DET 4·PHI 2

  18. 3rd·16:27

    Takeaway by Jamie Drysdale

    DET 4·PHI 2

  19. 3rd·15:37

    Rasmus Ristolainen Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  20. 3rd·14:49

    Emil Andrae Snap Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  21. 3rd·14:29

    Giveaway by Matvei Michkov

    DET 4·PHI 2

  22. 3rd·14:27

    Emmitt Finnie hit Denver Barkey

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  23. 3rd·14:00

    Carl Grundstrom hit David Perron

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  24. 3rd·13:57

    Giveaway by Cam York

    DET 4·PHI 2

  25. 3rd·13:52

    Carl Grundstrom Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  26. 3rd·13:35

    Luke Glendening faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  27. 3rd·13:35

    Puck in Benches

    DET 4·PHI 2

  28. 3rd·13:18

    Takeaway by David Perron

    DET 4·PHI 2

  29. 3rd·13:09

    Owen Tippett hit Simon Edvinsson

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

  30. 3rd·12:56

    Travis Sanheim shot blocked by Simon Edvinsson

    ·

    DET 4·PHI 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

19

Shots

34

50.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

4

25

Faceoffs W

25

16

Blocks

9

12

Giveaways

13

6

Takeaways

3

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·DET -112/PHI -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Tyson FoersterPHI · RW
    SHOT MPH92.796
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · PHI favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(PHI win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR