Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at VGK?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3VGK

CGY

31-36-8

VGK

34-26-16

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesVGK wins series 3-1VegasVGK -238

CGY · top performer

Blake Coleman

LW · #20

2Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

5Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	20:20
B. ColemanLW · #20	2	0	1	3	0	1	0	18:05
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	15:34
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	1	1	2	0	2	0	18:37
M. FrostC · #16	1	0	-1	1	3	0	2	15:43
M. GridinRW · #92	0	0	-1	4	0	2	0	15:09
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	-1	1	6	0	4	8:22
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:58
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	-1	1	9	0	0	8:15
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	19:29
R. StromeC · #22	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	12:27
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	-1	0	2	1	2	23:05
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	2	1	0	3	0	16:46
O. MaattaD · #3	0	0	-3	1	0	3	0	19:50
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	-2	0	1	3	2	14:43
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	18:12
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	1	1	3	2	0	25:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	34	6	28	.824	59:11

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	2	4	1	3	0	0	14:47
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	1	0	0	5	0	1	0	19:45
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	13:53
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	20:35
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	18:09
B. HowdenC · #21	1	0	0	3	0	1	2	15:02
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	13:10
M. MarnerRW · #93	3	2	3	6	0	0	0	17:45
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:08
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:40
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	-1	1	6	0	0	10:27
M. StoneRW · #61	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	17:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	20:50
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	2	2	2	2	0	19:46
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:45
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-1	2	7	0	0	15:45
B. McNabbD · #3	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	18:06
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	2	1	2	0	0	0	18:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HartG · #79	22	3	19	.864	59:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

16.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VGK wins series 3-1

Oct 15

VGK4@

CGY2

Oct 19

CGY1@

VGK6

Dec 21

VGK3@

CGY6

Apr 3

CGY3@

VGK6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+19534%

VGK-23870%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 47 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat CGY 6-3. M. Marner led the way — 3 G · 2 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	1	2	0	3
VGK	0	3	3	6

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · VGK won 2

CGY

VGK

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 3·VGK 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 3·VGK 6
3rd·19:55
Brayden McNabb shot blocked by Yan Kuznetsov
·
CGY 3·VGK 6
3rd·19:22
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 3·VGK 6
3rd·19:22
Adam Klapka Interference against Nic Dowd
·
CGY 3·VGK 6
3rd·19:00
Jeremy Lauzon hit Brayden Pachal
·
CGY 3·VGK 6
3rd·18:34
Giveaway by Brayden Pachal
CGY 3·VGK 6
3rd·18:31
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
CGY 3·VGK 6
3rd·18:31
Mitch Marner Goal (23) Wrap-around, assists: Mark Stone (43), Ivan Barbashev (34)
· ·
CGY 3·VGK 6
3rd·18:17
Giveaway by Zayne Parekh
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·18:11
Mitch Marner faceoff won against Morgan Frost
·
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·18:11
Off-side
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:51
Blake Coleman Deflected Wide Left
·
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:47
Yegor Sharangovich faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:47
Goalie Stopped
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:45
Zayne Parekh Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart
·
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:42
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mitch Marner
·
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:42
Icing
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:37
Ivan Barbashev Wrist Shot Wide Right
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:36
Takeaway by Ivan Barbashev
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:28
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mitch Marner
·
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:28
Icing
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:24
Rasmus Andersson Wrist Shot Wide Left
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·17:17
Giveaway by Mark Stone
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·16:53
Morgan Frost hit Shea Theodore
·
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·16:45
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·16:09
Giveaway by Rasmus Andersson
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·14:59
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan Strome
·
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·14:59
Ivan Barbashev Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (53)
·
CGY 3·VGK 5
3rd·14:58
Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 3·VGK 4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +195/VGK -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Calgary Flames, 6–3.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

58.3%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
58.3%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
58.3%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
58.3%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+195

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CGY at VGK?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Calgary FlamesVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL