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FINAL+3VGK
CGY

CGY

31-36-8

36
VGK

VGK

34-26-16

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesVGK wins series 3-1VegasVGK -238

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Calgary Flames, 6–3.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

CGY
Blake Coleman

Blake Coleman

LW · #20

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Mitch Marner

Mitch Marner

RW · #93

5Points

3

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Calgary Flames at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
6
CGY31-36-8VGK34-26-16
CGY

CGY

31-36-8

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

34-26-16

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

12

PIM

4

Season series

VGK wins series 3-1

Oct 15VGKVGK4@CGYCGY2
Oct 19CGYCGY1@VGKVGK6
Dec 21VGKVGK3@CGYCGY6
Apr 3CGYCGY3@VGKVGK6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGYCGY+19534%
VGKVGK-23870%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat CGY 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
CGY1203
VGK0336

Period scoring

CGY won 1 · VGK won 2

1
0

1

2
3

2

0
3

3

CGY
VGK

Play-by-play · 324 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    CGY 3·VGK 6

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CGY 3·VGK 6

  3. 3rd·19:55

    Brayden McNabb shot blocked by Yan Kuznetsov

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 6

  4. 3rd·19:22

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 6

  5. 3rd·19:22

    Adam Klapka Interference against Nic Dowd

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 6

  6. 3rd·19:00

    Jeremy Lauzon hit Brayden Pachal

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 6

  7. 3rd·18:34

    Giveaway by Brayden Pachal

    CGY 3·VGK 6

  8. 3rd·18:31

    Ryan Strome faceoff won against Tomas Hertl

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 6

  9. 3rd·18:31

    Mitch Marner Goal (23) Wrap-around, assists: Mark Stone (43), Ivan Barbashev (34)

    · ·

    CGY 3·VGK 6

  10. 3rd·18:17

    Giveaway by Zayne Parekh

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  11. 3rd·18:11

    Mitch Marner faceoff won against Morgan Frost

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  12. 3rd·18:11

    Off-side

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  13. 3rd·17:51

    Blake Coleman Deflected Wide Left

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  14. 3rd·17:47

    Yegor Sharangovich faceoff won against Nic Dowd

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  15. 3rd·17:47

    Goalie Stopped

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  16. 3rd·17:45

    Zayne Parekh Wrist Shot saved by Carter Hart

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  17. 3rd·17:42

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mitch Marner

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  18. 3rd·17:42

    Icing

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  19. 3rd·17:37

    Ivan Barbashev Wrist Shot Wide Right

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  20. 3rd·17:36

    Takeaway by Ivan Barbashev

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  21. 3rd·17:28

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mitch Marner

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  22. 3rd·17:28

    Icing

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  23. 3rd·17:24

    Rasmus Andersson Wrist Shot Wide Left

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  24. 3rd·17:17

    Giveaway by Mark Stone

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  25. 3rd·16:53

    Morgan Frost hit Shea Theodore

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  26. 3rd·16:45

    Matt Coronato Wrist Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  27. 3rd·16:09

    Giveaway by Rasmus Andersson

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  28. 3rd·14:59

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan Strome

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  29. 3rd·14:59

    Ivan Barbashev Goal (22) Wrist Shot, assists: Mitch Marner (53)

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 5

  30. 3rd·14:58

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf

    ·

    CGY 3·VGK 4

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

22

Shots

34

0.0

PCT

16.7

12

PIM

4

34

Faceoffs W

28

21

Blocks

9

15

Giveaways

25

3

Takeaways

4

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·CGY +195/VGK -238

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Noah HanifinVGK · D
    BURSTS1998
  • Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
    SHOT MPH100.297

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+195

Close price

+195

Open no-vig

32.5%

Close no-vig

32.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR