Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at NJ?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4NJ

WSH

38-29-9

39-34-2

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasNJ -120

WSH · top performer

Cole Hutson

D · #44

1Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Jack Hughes

C · #86

5Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	19:10
P. DuboisLW · #80	1	1	0	4	1	0	0	19:02
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:07
D. KampfC · #64	0	0	-1	0	1	3	2	9:39
H. LapierreC · #29	0	1	-2	0	2	1	12	12:46
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	1	-1	4	2	0	2	13:46
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:23
I. MiroshnichenkoLW · #63	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	10:49
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	-2	4	4	0	0	18:05
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	15:22
D. StromeC · #17	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	17:12
T. WilsonRW · #43	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	20:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	1	-3	2	0	1	0	24:55
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	0	-3	0	1	1	0	16:31
C. HutsonD · #44	1	0	1	7	0	1	0	18:48
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	17:45
R. SandinD · #38	0	1	-2	2	1	2	0	18:56
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	-1	0	0	3	0	18:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	29	6	23	.793	58:10

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	12:59
J. BrattLW · #63	1	4	4	2	0	0	0	18:11
C. BrownRW · #16	0	1	3	0	0	1	0	19:03
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	6:58
E. DadonovLW · #33	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	5:43
C. GlassC · #12	1	0	1	3	0	1	12	12:53
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	14:09
N. HischierC · #13	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	21:08
J. HughesC · #86	2	3	4	5	0	1	0	22:25
T. MeierRW · #28	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	18:08
D. MercerC · #91	2	0	1	6	1	1	0	20:00
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	6:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	18:44
D. HamiltonD · #7	1	0	4	4	0	1	0	17:38
L. HughesD · #43	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	23:22
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	21:13
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	-1	2	1	4	0	18:29
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	4	1	0	5	0	18:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AllenG · #34	32	3	29	.906	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 2-2

Nov 16

NJ3@

WSH2

Dec 28

WSH4@

NJ3

Mar 20

NJ1@

WSH2

Apr 2

WSH3@

NJ7today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+10050%

NJ-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 77 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat WSH 7-3. J. Hughes led the way — 2 G · 3 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	2	0	1	3
NJ	3	1	3	7

Period scoring

WSH won 0 · NJ won 3

WSH

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·20:00
Cody Glass Misconduct
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·20:00
Hendrix Lapierre Misconduct
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·20:00
Hendrix Lapierre Roughing against Cody Glass
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·20:00
Cody Glass Roughing against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·19:28
Connor McMichael Wrist Shot Failed Bank Attempt
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·19:08
Hendrix Lapierre shot blocked by Johnathan Kovacevic
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·19:07
Justin Sourdif faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·19:07
Goalie Stopped
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·19:05
Rasmus Sandin Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·18:59
Hendrix Lapierre shot blocked by Simon Nemec
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·18:57
Giveaway by Brenden Dillon
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·18:20
Paul Cotter hit Brandon Duhaime
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·18:16
Paul Cotter faceoff won against David Kampf
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·18:16
Goalie Stopped
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·18:14
Brandon Duhaime Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·18:12
Brandon Duhaime shot blocked by Paul Cotter
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·17:54
David Kampf faceoff won against Paul Cotter
·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·17:54
Dawson Mercer Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (46), Jack Hughes (44)
· ·
WSH 3·NJ 7
3rd·17:38
Dawson Mercer hit Cole Hutson
·
WSH 3·NJ 6
3rd·17:29
Tom Wilson shot blocked by Jonas Siegenthaler
·
WSH 3·NJ 6
3rd·17:26
Pierre-Luc Dubois Backhand saved by Jake Allen
·
WSH 3·NJ 6
3rd·17:25
Cole Hutson Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
WSH 3·NJ 6
3rd·16:26
Giveaway by Pierre-Luc Dubois
WSH 3·NJ 6
3rd·16:18
Alex Ovechkin Slap Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 3·NJ 6
3rd·16:05
Tom Wilson hit Jonas Siegenthaler
·
WSH 3·NJ 6
3rd·15:59
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
WSH 3·NJ 6
3rd·15:59
Off-side
WSH 3·NJ 6
3rd·15:48
Johnathan Kovacevic hit Rasmus Sandin
·
WSH 3·NJ 6

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·WSH +100/NJ -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils held off Washington Capitals, 7–3.

NJ -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jack Hughes · NJD22:300.6945.2%39.3%22:30 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 45.2% CF · 39.3% xGF
Cole Hutson · WSH18:480.6867.5%71.3%18:48 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 67.5% CF · 71.3% xGF
Pierre-Luc Dubois · WSH18:540.6360.5%66.9%18:54 TOI · 0.63 iXG · 60.5% CF · 66.9% xGF
Dawson Mercer · NJD20:060.4345.7%31.7%20:06 TOI · 0.43 iXG · 45.7% CF · 31.7% xGF
Tom Wilson · WSH20:120.4160.5%70.8%20:12 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 60.5% CF · 70.8% xGF
Cody Glass · NJD13:180.4046.2%70.2%13:18 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 46.2% CF · 70.2% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jake Allen · NJD29–3.906-0.2429–3 · .906 SV% · -0.24 GSAx
Logan Thompson · WSH23–6.793-3.0023–6 · .793 SV% · -3.00 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.7%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
55.7%
P(NJ win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.7%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.7%
P(NJ win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at NJ?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Washington CapitalsNew Jersey Devils

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