NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4CAR

CBJ

38-26-12

CAR

48-21-6

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesCAR wins series 3-1VegasCAR -198

CBJ · top performer

Denton Mateychuk

D · #5

1Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Logan Stankoven

C · #22

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	18:40
L. Del Bel BelluzC · #65	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:18
A. FantilliC · #19	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	16:06
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	14:30
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	13:37
B. JennerC · #38	0	1	-1	1	2	0	0	15:04
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:22
I. LundestromC · #21	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	15:34
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	16:15
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	12:38
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:06
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	12:45

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	-1	0	1	2	0	20:33
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	18:22
D. MateychukD · #5	1	0	0	2	0	2	2	20:29
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	-2	2	0	1	2	20:08
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	22:12
E. ZamulaD · #6	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	16:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. MerzlikinsG · #90	21	5	16	.762	59:53

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	2	1	1	1	0	0	16:30
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:42
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	10:58
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	15:56
T. HallLW · #71	0	2	2	1	0	1	0	13:50
M. JankowskiLW · #77	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:29
S. JarvisC · #24	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	15:42
J. MartinookLW · #48	1	0	1	2	0	2	0	14:04
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	12:12
J. StaalC · #11	0	1	1	1	3	2	0	15:53
L. StankovenC · #22	2	0	2	4	1	1	0	15:09
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	1	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	20:44
S. GostisbehereD · #4	0	1	0	1	1	1	4	16:21
K. MillerD · #19	0	1	2	0	2	1	4	21:45
A. NikishinD · #21	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	16:18
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	20:37
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	2	5	2	3	0	22:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	10	1	9	.900	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CAR wins series 3-1

Dec 10

CBJ1@

CAR4

Mar 17

CAR1@

CBJ5

Mar 31

CAR5@

CBJ2

Apr 2

CBJ1@

CAR5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ+16438%

CAR-19866%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 58 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CAR beat CBJ 5-1. L. Stankoven led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	0	1	0	1
CAR	3	1	1	5

Period scoring

CBJ won 0 · CAR won 2

CBJ

CAR

Play-by-play · 274 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·19:57
Egor Zamula shot blocked by Logan Stankoven
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·19:15
Takeaway by Dante Fabbro
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·19:02
Sean Walker hit Kent Johnson
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·18:50
Dante Fabbro shot blocked by Eric Robinson
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·18:50
Dante Fabbro shot blocked by Sean Walker
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:52
Isac Lundeström hit Jackson Blake
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:48
Dante Fabbro shot blocked by Sean Walker
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:41
Dante Fabbro shot blocked by Sean Walker
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:32
Miles Wood Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·17:20
Giveaway by Sean Walker
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·16:44
Sebastian Aho Wrist Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·16:15
Sebastian Aho faceoff won against Boone Jenner
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·16:15
Puck in Crowd
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·15:25
Danton Heinen Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·15:15
Takeaway by Dante Fabbro
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·15:09
Danton Heinen hit Logan Stankoven
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·15:06
Logan Stankoven shot blocked by Denton Mateychuk
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·14:20
Giveaway by Charlie Coyle
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·14:14
Logan Stankoven faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·14:14
Puck in Benches
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:57
William Carrier shot blocked by Erik Gudbranson
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:42
Egor Zamula Slap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:38
Erik Gudbranson Wrist Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:36
Sean Monahan faceoff won against Mark Jankowski
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:36
Puck in Netting
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:34
Boone Jenner shot blocked by Andrei Svechnikov
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:26
Boone Jenner Snap Shot Hit Right Post
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5
3rd·13:16
Dante Fabbro hit Jaccob Slavin
·
CBJ 1·CAR 5

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ +164/CAR -198

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

arolina Hurricanes held off Columbus Blue Jackets, 5–1.

CAR -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Logan Stankoven · CAR15:180.6561.3%49.8%15:18 TOI · 0.65 iXG · 61.3% CF · 49.8% xGF
Boone Jenner · CBJ15:000.4246.4%46.8%15:00 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 46.4% CF · 46.8% xGF
Denton Mateychuk · CBJ20:420.3951.9%54.4%20:42 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 51.9% CF · 54.4% xGF
Andrei Svechnikov · CAR16:060.3361.9%61.0%16:06 TOI · 0.33 iXG · 61.9% CF · 61.0% xGF
Taylor Hall · CAR13:540.3060.7%57.2%13:54 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 60.7% CF · 57.2% xGF
Sebastian Aho · CAR16:540.3061.9%74.3%16:54 TOI · 0.30 iXG · 61.9% CF · 74.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR9–1.900+0.219–1 · .900 SV% · +0.21 GSAx
Elvis Merzlikins · CBJ16–5.762-2.8116–5 · .762 SV% · -2.81 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.3%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
64.3%
P(CAR win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.3%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.3%
P(CAR win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Columbus Blue JacketsCarolina Hurricanes

Elsewhere in the NHL