NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TB

PIT

38-22-16

47-22-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-1VegasTB -162

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 6–3.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Anthony Cirelli

C · #71

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

PIT38-22-16

TB47-22-6

PIT38-22-16TB47-22-6

PIT

38-22-16

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

47-22-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

TB wins series 2-1

Dec 5

PIT4@

TB3

Jan 14

TB2@

PIT1

Apr 2

PIT3@

TB6today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+13642%

TB-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat PIT 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	2	0	1	3
TB	1	3	2	6

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · TB won 2

PIT

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 3·TB 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 3·TB 6
3rd·19:58
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
PIT 3·TB 6
3rd·19:58
Egor Chinakhov Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (30), Anthony Mantha (29)
· ·
PIT 3·TB 6
3rd·19:50
Thomas Novak faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·19:50
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·19:09
Takeaway by Yanni Gourde
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·18:57
Bryan Rust shot blocked by Erik Cernak
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·18:10
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·18:10
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Cross-checking against Rickard Rakell
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·18:07
Thomas Novak Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·17:53
Rickard Rakell faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·17:53
Puck in Benches
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·16:40
Corey Perry Batted saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·16:35
Mitchell Chaffee hit Kris Letang
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·15:33
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·15:33
Anthony Cirelli Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (20), Nikita Kucherov (83)
· ·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·15:23
Giveaway by Erik Cernak
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·15:20
Takeaway by Erik Cernak
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:56
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:56
High Stick
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:41
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:41
Hand Pass
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:35
Mitchell Chaffee hit Elmer Soderblom
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:35
Giveaway by Elmer Soderblom
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:07
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:07
Goalie Stopped
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:07
Mitchell Chaffee Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·13:57
Justin Brazeau hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·13:50
Nick Paul faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 2·TB 5

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +136/TB -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
SHOT MPH94.799
Erik KarlssonPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.897
Samuel GirardPIT · D
SKATE MPH22.590
Sidney CrosbyPIT · C
SHOT MPH88.787
Ben KindelPIT · C
SHOT MPH87.584

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

TB vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Rickard RakellPIT
3.0± 2.1high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Evgeni MalkinPIT
0.5± 1.0high
Jake GuentzelTB
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Evgeni MalkinPIT
1.1± 1.4high
Sidney CrosbyPIT
1.1± 1.1high
Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands