Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at TB?

The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TB

PIT

38-22-16

47-22-6

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesTB wins series 2-1VegasTB -162

PIT · top performer

Egor Chinakhov

RW · #59

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Anthony Cirelli

C · #71

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:21
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	-2	0	4	1	0	9:53
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	2	0	-2	4	1	0	0	18:19
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	0	-2	0	0	2	0	19:43
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	13:11
B. KindelC · #81	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	11:59
E. MalkinC · #71	0	0	-1	2	2	1	4	18:18
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	1	-3	3	0	0	0	13:59
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:27
R. RakellRW · #67	1	0	-2	3	1	0	0	18:24
B. RustRW · #17	0	1	-2	1	1	2	0	18:05
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	-1	2	2	3	2	16:52
S. GirardD · #49	0	2	1	1	0	6	0	18:20
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	-4	3	0	1	0	23:48
K. LetangD · #58	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	20:04
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:13
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	-2	1	3	1	0	20:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	32	5	27	.844	59:23

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	9:28
M. ChaffeeRW · #41	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	9:23
A. CirelliC · #71	3	0	3	3	0	1	0	15:08
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	1	0	0	1	4	0	0	14:50
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	15:43
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	15:43
J. GuentzelC · #59	0	2	2	7	3	0	0	21:24
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:33
N. KucherovRW · #86	1	2	3	4	0	1	0	20:45
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:00
C. PerryRW · #10	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:26
B. PointC · #21	1	0	2	3	0	0	0	17:59

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	17:21
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	1	2	2	1	0	2	20:58
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	1	0	3	0	2	20:42
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	1	2	1	0	3	0	18:04
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:13
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	1	2	1	0	4	21:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	24	3	21	.875	58:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB wins series 2-1

Dec 5

PIT4@

TB3

Jan 14

TB2@

PIT1

Apr 2

PIT3@

TB6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+13642%

TB-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 28 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat PIT 6-3. A. Cirelli led the way — 3 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	2	0	1	3
TB	1	3	2	6

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · TB won 2

PIT

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 3·TB 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 3·TB 6
3rd·19:58
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
PIT 3·TB 6
3rd·19:58
Egor Chinakhov Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Kris Letang (30), Anthony Mantha (29)
· ·
PIT 3·TB 6
3rd·19:50
Thomas Novak faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·19:50
Puck Frozen - Goalie
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·19:09
Takeaway by Yanni Gourde
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·18:57
Bryan Rust shot blocked by Erik Cernak
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·18:10
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·18:10
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Cross-checking against Rickard Rakell
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·18:07
Thomas Novak Slap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·17:53
Rickard Rakell faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·17:53
Puck in Benches
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·16:40
Corey Perry Batted saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·16:35
Mitchell Chaffee hit Kris Letang
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·15:33
Jake Guentzel faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·15:33
Anthony Cirelli Goal (23) Wrist Shot, assists: Gage Goncalves (20), Nikita Kucherov (83)
· ·
PIT 2·TB 6
3rd·15:23
Giveaway by Erik Cernak
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·15:20
Takeaway by Erik Cernak
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:56
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:56
High Stick
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:41
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:41
Hand Pass
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:35
Mitchell Chaffee hit Elmer Soderblom
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:35
Giveaway by Elmer Soderblom
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:07
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Nick Paul
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:07
Goalie Stopped
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·14:07
Mitchell Chaffee Snap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·13:57
Justin Brazeau hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
PIT 2·TB 5
3rd·13:50
Nick Paul faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 2·TB 5

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +136/TB -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 6–3.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Jake Guentzel · TBL21:300.9360.4%54.2%21:30 TOI · 0.93 iXG · 60.4% CF · 54.2% xGF
Brayden Point · TBL18:180.5561.4%55.9%18:18 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 61.4% CF · 55.9% xGF
Nikita Kucherov · TBL21:060.4957.4%52.2%21:06 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 57.4% CF · 52.2% xGF
Egor Chinakhov · PIT18:240.4630.6%24.5%18:24 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 30.6% CF · 24.5% xGF
Rickard Rakell · PIT18:360.4170.0%62.4%18:36 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 70.0% CF · 62.4% xGF
Anthony Cirelli · TBL15:240.3752.2%67.1%15:24 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 52.2% CF · 67.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL21–3.875-0.5221–3 · .875 SV% · -0.52 GSAx
Stuart Skinner · PIT27–5.844-0.9427–5 · .844 SV% · -0.94 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.6%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
63.6%
P(TB win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.6%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.6%
P(TB win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at TB?: The model favors TB, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PenguinsTampa Bay Lightning

Elsewhere in the NHL