NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

MTL

44-21-10

NYR

31-36-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesNYR win series 2-1VegasMTL -125

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into New York Rangers and beat them, 3–2.

NYR +1.5 cashed (MTL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Jonny Brodzinski

C · #22

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

MTL44-21-10

NYR31-36-9

MTL44-21-10NYR31-36-9

MTL

44-21-10

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYR

31-36-9

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYR win series 2-1

Oct 18

NYR4@

MTL3

Dec 14

MTL4@

NYR5

Apr 2

MTL3@

NYR2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-12556%

NYR+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat NYR 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	0	2	1	3
NYR	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · NYR won 1

MTL

NYR

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:57
Jake Evans faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:57
Icing
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:51
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:49
Vincent Trocheck shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:49
Vincent Trocheck shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:45
Will Cuylle Deflected saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:44
Takeaway by Alexis Lafrenière
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:41
Jake Evans faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:41
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:39
Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:01
Jake Evans faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:01
Timeout - Home
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:01
Goalie Stopped
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:00
Will Cuylle Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·18:52
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Braden Schneider
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·18:38
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·18:35
Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·18:10
Vladislav Gavrikov Tip-In saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·18:05
Alexis Lafrenière shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·17:59
Alexis Lafrenière Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·17:52
Giveaway by Mike Matheson
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·17:40
Conor Sheary Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·17:15
Adam Fox Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·16:56
Vladislav Gavrikov Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·16:30
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·16:18
Alexis Lafrenière hit Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·16:06
Lane Hutson hit Alexis Lafrenière
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·15:12
Jonny Brodzinski shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 3·NYR 2

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -125/NYR +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Lane HutsonMTL · D
DIST MI71.899+
J.T. MillerNYR · LW
SHOT MPH102.699+
Josh AndersonMTL · RW
BURSTS7699+
Mike MathesonMTL · D
DIST MI62.999
Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
DIST MI56.699

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYR vs MTL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Cole CaufieldMTL
2.8± 1.4high
Juraj SlafkovskyMTL
2.4± 1.6high
Nick SuzukiMTL
2.3± 1.2high

Goals

Cole CaufieldMTL
0.5± 0.5high
Alex NewhookMTL
0.4± 0.7high
Gabe PerreaultNYR
0.4± 1.0high

Points

Adam FoxNYR
1.2± 1.0high
J.T. MillerNYR
1.0± 1.0high
Cole CaufieldMTL
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands