Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at NYR?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

MTL

44-21-10

NYR

31-36-9

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesNYR win series 2-1VegasMTL -125

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NYR · top performer

Will Cuylle

LW · #50

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	16:26
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	13:07
C. CaufieldRW · #13	2	0	2	7	0	0	0	16:20
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	13:58
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	12:30
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	19:11
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	8:50
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:54
A. NewhookC · #15	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	12:32
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	1	2	2	0	1	4	20:38
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	2	2	1	1	0	0	21:17
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	10:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	-1	1	1	3	0	22:43
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	1	1	4	4	0	18:58
L. HutsonD · #48	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	25:54
M. MathesonD · #8	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	23:22
J. StrubleD · #47	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	15:57
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	9:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FowlerG · #32	24	2	22	.917	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	13:27
J. ChmelarRW · #49	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	8:04
W. CuylleLW · #50	1	0	1	6	6	0	0	17:23
T. KartyeLW · #24	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	13:50
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	12:05
A. LafreniereLW · #13	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	20:17
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:40
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:32
C. ShearyLW · #43	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	14:29
A. SykoraLW · #38	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	7:16
V. TrocheckC · #16	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	19:13
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	23:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	16:47
D. FortescueD · #45	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	14:01
A. FoxD · #23	1	0	-1	1	0	1	0	23:10
V. GavrikovD · #44	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	21:55
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	17:36
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	20:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ShesterkinG · #31	25	3	22	.880	57:59

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

NYR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYR win series 2-1

Oct 18

NYR4@

MTL3

Dec 14

MTL4@

NYR5

Apr 2

MTL3@

NYR2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL-12556%

NYR+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 55 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat NYR 3-2. C. Caufield led the way — 2 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	0	2	1	3
NYR	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

MTL won 1 · NYR won 1

MTL

NYR

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:57
Jake Evans faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:57
Icing
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:51
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:49
Vincent Trocheck shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:49
Vincent Trocheck shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:45
Will Cuylle Deflected saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:44
Takeaway by Alexis Lafrenière
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:41
Jake Evans faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:41
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:39
Mika Zibanejad shot blocked by Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:01
Jake Evans faceoff won against J.T. Miller
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:01
Timeout - Home
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:01
Goalie Stopped
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·19:00
Will Cuylle Snap Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·18:52
Juraj Slafkovský shot blocked by Braden Schneider
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·18:38
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·18:35
Nick Suzuki Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·18:10
Vladislav Gavrikov Tip-In saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·18:05
Alexis Lafrenière shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·17:59
Alexis Lafrenière Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·17:52
Giveaway by Mike Matheson
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·17:40
Conor Sheary Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·17:15
Adam Fox Slap Shot Wide Left
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·16:56
Vladislav Gavrikov Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Fowler
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·16:30
Giveaway by Nick Suzuki
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·16:18
Alexis Lafrenière hit Kaiden Guhle
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·16:06
Lane Hutson hit Alexis Lafrenière
·
MTL 3·NYR 2
3rd·15:12
Jonny Brodzinski shot blocked by Noah Dobson
·
MTL 3·NYR 2

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL -125/NYR +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into New York Rangers and beat them, 3–2.

NYR +1.5 cashed (MTL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Cole Caufield · MTL16:300.8760.0%69.7%16:30 TOI · 0.87 iXG · 60.0% CF · 69.7% xGF
Alexis Lafrenière · NYR20:300.6665.8%61.0%20:30 TOI · 0.66 iXG · 65.8% CF · 61.0% xGF
Will Cuylle · NYR17:420.6257.6%56.2%17:42 TOI · 0.62 iXG · 57.6% CF · 56.2% xGF
Conor Sheary · NYR14:300.5266.7%60.1%14:30 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 66.7% CF · 60.1% xGF
Juraj Slafkovský · MTL20:480.3957.1%67.3%20:48 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 57.1% CF · 67.3% xGF
Jake Evans · MTL19:180.3535.6%38.0%19:18 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 35.6% CF · 38.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jacob Fowler · MTL22–2.917+0.8222–2 · .917 SV% · +0.82 GSAx
Igor Shesterkin · NYR22–3.880-0.4722–3 · .880 SV% · -0.47 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.2%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
45.2%
P(NYR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
45.2%
P(NYR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
45.2%
P(NYR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at NYR?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensNew York Rangers

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