Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4UTA

UTA

39-30-6

SEA

32-31-11

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesUTA wins series 3-0VegasUTAH -142

UTA · top performer

Logan Cooley

C · #92

3Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Jordan Eberle

RW · #7

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CarconeLW · #53	1	0	0	3	3	0	0	15:03
L. CooleyC · #92	2	1	1	3	1	0	2	17:14
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	15:47
D. GuentherRW · #11	1	2	1	3	0	1	0	16:48
C. KellerRW · #9	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	19:00
A. KerfootC · #15	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	16:33
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	9:00
J. PeterkaRW · #77	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	16:42
N. SchmaltzC · #8	1	1	-1	4	0	0	0	18:44
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:43
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	9:44
K. YamamotoRW · #56	0	2	2	0	0	1	2	11:23

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	17:40
S. DurziD · #50	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	16:23
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:39
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	-1	0	0	0	2	19:50
M. SergachevD · #98	0	1	1	4	0	1	0	23:23
M. WeegarD · #52	0	1	1	2	3	2	0	19:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	27	2	25	.926	59:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:41
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	-3	1	0	0	4	13:04
J. EberleRW · #7	1	0	0	2	3	0	4	18:53
O. Fisker MolgaardC · #78	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	8:14
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	-3	1	0	1	0	16:16
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	13:27
J. McCannLW · #19	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	16:39
B. McMannC · #74	1	0	1	2	1	1	0	14:54
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	-1	0	8	0	2	9:49
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:47
C. StephensonC · #9	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	17:17
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	13:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	2	4	0	1	2	19:08
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	-3	1	2	0	0	21:23
A. LarssonD · #6	0	1	2	3	3	3	0	21:07
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	16:43
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	-3	5	1	0	0	21:37
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	0	2	2	2	0	16:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	31	6	25	.806	59:55

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

UTA

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

UTA wins series 3-0

Dec 13

SEA3@

UTA5

Jan 17

SEA3@

UTA6

Apr 3

UTA6@

SEA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

UTA-14259%

SEA+12045%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 57 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

UTA beat SEA 6-2. L. Cooley led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
UTA	1	2	3	6
SEA	2	0	0	2

Period scoring

UTA won 2 · SEA won 1

UTA

SEA

Play-by-play · 318 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:37
Vince Dunn Backhand saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:24
Brandon Tanev hit Jacob Melanson
·
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·19:04
Berkly Catton Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:31
Giveaway by Lawson Crouse
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:27
Takeaway by Nick Schmaltz
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·18:19
Giveaway by Nick Schmaltz
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:49
Kaapo Kakko hit Alexander Kerfoot
·
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:44
Ryker Evans hit JJ Peterka
·
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:26
Giveaway by Kaapo Kakko
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·17:11
Jacob Melanson hit Ian Cole
·
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·16:55
Jacob Melanson hit Sean Durzi
·
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·16:53
Giveaway by Berkly Catton
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·16:37
Oscar Fisker Molgaard faceoff won against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·16:37
Michael Carcone Goal (15) Deflected, assists: none
UTA 6·SEA 2
3rd·16:26
Alexander Kerfoot faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·16:26
Puck in Crowd
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·15:57
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Alexander Kerfoot
·
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·15:57
On-Ice Official
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·15:47
Dylan Guenther Wrist Shot High and Wide Left
·
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·15:23
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Adam Larsson
·
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·15:19
Dylan Guenther shot blocked by Freddy Gaudreau
·
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·15:01
Adam Larsson hit Clayton Keller
·
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·14:35
Logan Cooley faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·14:35
TV Timeout
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·14:35
Jordan Eberle High-sticking - double minor against Kevin Stenlund
·
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·14:29
Lawson Crouse Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·14:10
Jordan Eberle Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 5·SEA 2
3rd·13:49
Vince Dunn Wrist Shot saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
UTA 5·SEA 2

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 6.5·UTA -142/SEA +120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

tah Mammoth went into Seattle Kraken and beat them, 6–2.

UTA -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

51.1%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
51.1%
P(SEA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
51.1%
P(SEA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
51.1%
P(SEA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in UTA at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Utah MammothSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL