Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3DAL

WPG

32-31-12

DAL

45-19-12

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesDAL wins series 4-0VegasDAL -155

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

0Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Adam Erne

LW · #73

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	14:05
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	0	-1	4	2	0	0	22:37
P. FordC · #25	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	9:12
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	15:58
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:34
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:11
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	0	0	3	0	5	13:03
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	20:34
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	10:09
M. ScheifeleC · #55	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	23:08
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	11:10
G. VilardiC · #13	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	23:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:40
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	1	2	14:25
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	27:52
N. PionkD · #4	0	0	0	1	2	1	12	18:50
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	8:56
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	-1	4	0	0	0	22:07

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	21	3	18	.857	57:19

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:17
J. BennLW · #14	0	1	1	1	0	0	5	11:55
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	0	0	2	1	14	10:35
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	17:59
M. DucheneC · #95	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:37
A. ErneLW · #73	1	1	2	1	5	0	0	10:50
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	16:29
A. HyryRW · #25	1	1	2	1	3	1	0	11:49
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	19:20
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	20:31
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	0	0	4	2	1	2	22:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	1	1	1	2	3	0	16:33
K. CapobiancoD · #20	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	7:49
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	19:56
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	24:34
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	1	3	1	1	0	22:16
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:39
I. LyubushkinD · #46	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	13:00

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	22	0	22	1.000	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL wins series 4-0

Oct 10

DAL5@

WPG4

Dec 10

DAL4@

WPG3

Feb 3

WPG3@

DAL4

Apr 3

WPG0@

DAL3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+13043%

DAL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 46 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat WPG 3-0. A. Erne led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	0	0	0	0
DAL	2	1	0	3

Period scoring

WPG won 0 · DAL won 2

WPG

DAL

Play-by-play · 257 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·19:58
Dylan Samberg Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·19:55
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·19:55
Icing
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·19:29
Josh Morrissey shot blocked by Mikko Rantanen
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·19:23
Josh Morrissey shot blocked by Jason Robertson
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·19:14
Giveaway by Miro Heiskanen
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·19:10
Mark Scheifele Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·19:06
Kyle Connor shot blocked by Esa Lindell
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·19:05
Josh Morrissey Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:59
Giveaway by Jason Robertson
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:57
Giveaway by Josh Morrissey
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:47
Giveaway by Esa Lindell
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:43
Gabriel Vilardi Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:27
Kyle Connor Slap Shot Wide Left
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:22
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Arttu Hyry
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:22
Icing
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:18
Esa Lindell Wrist Shot Wide Left
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:09
Arttu Hyry hit Morgan Barron
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:05
Dylan Samberg Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:04
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Arttu Hyry
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·18:04
Icing
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·17:19
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·17:19
Icing
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·17:15
Adam Lowry hit Mavrik Bourque
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·17:03
Cole Perfetti Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·16:50
Giveaway by Oskar Bäck
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·16:14
Giveaway by Ilya Lyubushkin
WPG 0·DAL 3
3rd·15:31
Parker Ford hit Kyle Capobianco
·
WPG 0·DAL 3

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +130/DAL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Winnipeg Jets, 3–0.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

66.6%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
66.6%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
66.6%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL