Live · 2
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FINAL+3DAL
WPG

WPG

32-31-12

03
DAL

DAL

45-19-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Apr 2FinalSeriesDAL wins series 4-0VegasDAL -155

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Winnipeg Jets, 3–0.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

WPG · top performer

WPG
Morgan Barron

Morgan Barron

C · #36

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Adam Erne

Adam Erne

LW · #73

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Winnipeg Jets at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
0
3
WPG32-31-12DAL45-19-12
WPG

WPG

32-31-12

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

45-19-12

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

19

PIM

23

Season series

DAL wins series 4-0

Oct 10DALDAL5@WPGWPG4
Dec 10DALDAL4@WPGWPG3
Feb 3WPGWPG3@DALDAL4
Apr 3WPGWPG0@DALDAL3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPGWPG+13043%
DALDAL-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat WPG 3-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
WPG0000
DAL2103

Period scoring

WPG won 0 · DAL won 2

0
2

1

0
1

2

0
0

3

WPG
DAL

Play-by-play · 257 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Dylan Samberg Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  4. 3rd·19:55

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Matt Duchene

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  5. 3rd·19:55

    Icing

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  6. 3rd·19:29

    Josh Morrissey shot blocked by Mikko Rantanen

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  7. 3rd·19:23

    Josh Morrissey shot blocked by Jason Robertson

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  8. 3rd·19:14

    Giveaway by Miro Heiskanen

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  9. 3rd·19:10

    Mark Scheifele Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  10. 3rd·19:06

    Kyle Connor shot blocked by Esa Lindell

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  11. 3rd·19:05

    Josh Morrissey Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  12. 3rd·18:59

    Giveaway by Jason Robertson

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  13. 3rd·18:57

    Giveaway by Josh Morrissey

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  14. 3rd·18:47

    Giveaway by Esa Lindell

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  15. 3rd·18:43

    Gabriel Vilardi Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  16. 3rd·18:27

    Kyle Connor Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  17. 3rd·18:22

    Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Arttu Hyry

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  18. 3rd·18:22

    Icing

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  19. 3rd·18:18

    Esa Lindell Wrist Shot Wide Left

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  20. 3rd·18:09

    Arttu Hyry hit Morgan Barron

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  21. 3rd·18:05

    Dylan Samberg Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  22. 3rd·18:04

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Arttu Hyry

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  23. 3rd·18:04

    Icing

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  24. 3rd·17:19

    Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  25. 3rd·17:19

    Icing

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  26. 3rd·17:15

    Adam Lowry hit Mavrik Bourque

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  27. 3rd·17:03

    Cole Perfetti Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  28. 3rd·16:50

    Giveaway by Oskar Bäck

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  29. 3rd·16:14

    Giveaway by Ilya Lyubushkin

    WPG 0·DAL 3

  30. 3rd·15:31

    Parker Ford hit Kyle Capobianco

    ·

    WPG 0·DAL 3

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

22

Shots

21

0.0

PCT

100.0

19

PIM

23

22

Faceoffs W

18

5

Blocks

15

11

Giveaways

21

3

Takeaways

5

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +130/DAL -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Josh MorrisseyWPG · D
    DIST MI282.397
  • Haydn FleuryWPG · D
    SKATE MPH23.195

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-155

Close price

-155

Open no-vig

58.3%

Close no-vig

58.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

DAL vs WPG.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    3.9± 2.0high
  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    3.7± 1.8high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    2.7± 1.8high

Goals

  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    0.8± 0.6high
  • Wyatt JohnstonDAL
    0.6± 0.7high
  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    0.6± 0.8high

Points

  • Mark ScheifeleWPG
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Jason RobertsonDAL
    1.3± 0.9high
  • Matt DucheneDAL
    1.2± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR