Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3WSH

WSH

36-28-9

UTA

37-30-6

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasUTAH -135

WSH · top performer

Alex Ovechkin

LW · #8

3Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Dylan Guenther

RW · #11

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	1	1	1	3	1	2	2	17:24
P. DuboisLW · #80	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:56
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	2	0	3	0	5	10:35
H. LapierreC · #29	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:14
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	15:22
C. McMichaelC · #24	0	1	-1	1	1	1	0	16:45
I. MiroshnichenkoLW · #63	2	0	1	3	0	1	0	9:45
A. OvechkinLW · #8	3	0	3	5	1	0	0	18:27
A. ProtasC · #21	0	0	2	2	0	2	0	20:03
J. SourdifRW · #34	0	0	1	0	1	0	2	14:30
D. StromeC · #17	0	2	3	1	0	1	2	18:07
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	0	-1	1	2	2	21	11:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChychrunD · #6	0	2	4	0	2	1	0	20:22
M. FehervaryD · #42	0	1	0	1	2	3	0	20:52
C. HutsonD · #44	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	14:56
M. RoyD · #3	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	19:37
R. SandinD · #38	1	1	0	2	0	1	0	19:42
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	1	3	2	0	0	0	18:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ThompsonG · #48	40	4	36	.900	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ButLW · #19	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	9:08
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	15:23
L. CooleyC · #92	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:25
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	-1	2	2	0	17	10:11
D. GuentherRW · #11	2	0	0	8	0	0	0	21:00
C. KellerRW · #9	0	3	-1	4	0	0	2	23:36
A. KerfootC · #15	0	1	-2	2	2	2	0	13:42
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	-1	0	2	0	10	10:05
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	14:03
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	1	-3	4	1	0	0	22:54
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-1	3	2	1	0	14:59
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	-1	1	4	0	17	6:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	16:19
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	14:37
J. MarinoD · #6	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	17:53
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	16:46
M. SergachevD · #98	0	3	-1	2	0	4	0	26:55
M. WeegarD · #52	1	0	-1	2	2	2	2	20:27

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	1	0	1	1.000	7:17
V. VanecekG · #41	23	6	17	.739	49:54

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WSH

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 4

UTA3@

WSH2

Mar 27

WSH7@

UTA4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WSH+11447%

UTA-13557%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 61 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat UTA 7-4. A. Ovechkin led the way — 3 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WSH	1	2	4	7
UTA	3	0	1	4

Period scoring

WSH won 2 · UTA won 1

WSH

UTA

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WSH 7·UTA 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WSH 7·UTA 4
3rd·19:54
Kevin Stenlund faceoff won against Hendrix Lapierre
·
WSH 7·UTA 4
3rd·19:54
Alex Ovechkin Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Dylan Strome (37)
·
WSH 7·UTA 4
3rd·19:44
Clayton Keller Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·19:37
Dylan Guenther Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·19:33
Logan Cooley Batted saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·19:32
Logan Cooley Snap Shot Short
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·19:20
Nick Schmaltz Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·19:09
Rasmus Sandin shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·19:05
Giveaway by Tom Wilson
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·18:57
MacKenzie Weegar shot blocked by Aliaksei Protas
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·18:50
MacKenzie Weegar Slap Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·18:44
John Marino shot blocked by Tom Wilson
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·18:34
Michael Carcone Tip-In Wide Left
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·18:20
Pierre-Luc Dubois shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·17:42
Giveaway by Logan Cooley
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·17:27
Aliaksei Protas Snap Shot Above Crossbar
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·17:21
Mikhail Sergachev shot blocked by Dylan Strome
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·17:11
Logan Cooley Slap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·17:10
Dylan Guenther Slap Shot Wide Right
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·17:04
Nick Schmaltz faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·17:04
Puck in Netting
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·17:02
Clayton Keller Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·16:55
JJ Peterka Snap Shot Wide Left
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·16:28
JJ Peterka hit Ryan Leonard
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·16:22
Michael Carcone Snap Shot saved by Logan Thompson
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·16:16
Giveaway by Ryan Leonard
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·16:07
Dylan Guenther Tip-In Wide Right
·
WSH 6·UTA 4
3rd·15:46
Giveaway by Rasmus Sandin
WSH 6·UTA 4

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 5.5·WSH +114/UTA -135

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 7–4.

WSH +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 5.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.0%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
60.0%
P(UTA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.0%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.0%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-135

Close price

-135

Open no-vig

55.1%

Close no-vig

55.1%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WSH at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Washington CapitalsUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL