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FINAL+1COL
COL

COL

48-13-10

32
WPG

WPG

30-30-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesCOL leads series 2-1VegasCOL -185

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 3–2.

WPG +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

WPG
Mark Scheifele

Mark Scheifele

C · #55

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
COL48-13-10WPG30-30-12
COL

COL

48-13-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WPG

WPG

30-30-12

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

15

Season series

COL leads series 2-1

Dec 20WPGWPG2@COLCOL3
Mar 14COLCOL1@WPGWPG3
Mar 27COLCOL3@WPGWPG2today
Mar 28WPGWPG4@COLCOL2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-18565%
WPGWPG+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 15 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat WPG 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL1023
WPG1012

Period scoring

COL won 1 · WPG won 0

1
1

1

0
0

2

2
1

3

COL
WPG

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 3·WPG 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 3·WPG 2

  3. 3rd·19:45

    Neal Pionk hit Cale Makar

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  4. 3rd·19:25

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  5. 3rd·19:18

    Neal Pionk hit Sam Malinski

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  6. 3rd·18:51

    Dylan Samberg hit Parker Kelly

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  7. 3rd·18:06

    Brett Kulak Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  8. 3rd·18:05

    Brett Kulak Tip-In saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  9. 3rd·17:41

    Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  10. 3rd·17:28

    Giveaway by Mark Scheifele

    COL 3·WPG 2

  11. 3rd·17:22

    Brent Burns Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  12. 3rd·17:08

    Dylan DeMelo hit Valeri Nichushkin

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  13. 3rd·17:05

    Brent Burns Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  14. 3rd·17:02

    Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  15. 3rd·16:44

    Giveaway by Cole Perfetti

    COL 3·WPG 2

  16. 3rd·16:00

    Adam Lowry faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  17. 3rd·16:00

    TV Timeout

    COL 3·WPG 2

  18. 3rd·16:00

    Neal Pionk Unsportsmanlike conduct against Devon Toews

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  19. 3rd·16:00

    Devon Toews Slashing against Neal Pionk

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  20. 3rd·15:26

    Cale Makar hit Jonathan Toews

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  21. 3rd·15:00

    Giveaway by Mark Scheifele

    COL 3·WPG 2

  22. 3rd·14:53

    Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  23. 3rd·14:51

    Kyle Connor Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  24. 3rd·14:18

    Cole Perfetti hit Devon Toews

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  25. 3rd·13:47

    Jack Drury faceoff won against Gabriel Vilardi

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  26. 3rd·13:47

    Morgan Barron Fighting against Josh Manson

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  27. 3rd·13:47

    Josh Manson Fighting against Morgan Barron

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  28. 3rd·13:47

    Josh Manson Interference against Morgan Barron served by Ross Colton

    · ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  29. 3rd·13:41

    Valeri Nichushkin hit Isak Rosen

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

  30. 3rd·13:02

    Josh Manson hit Kyle Connor

    ·

    COL 3·WPG 2

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

35

Shots

24

25.0

PCT

0.0

15

PIM

15

28

Faceoffs W

28

7

Blocks

22

14

Giveaways

14

4

Takeaways

3

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·COL -185/WPG +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WPG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR