Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at WPG?

The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1COL

COL

48-13-10

WPG

30-30-12

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesCOL leads series 2-1VegasCOL -185

COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

2Points

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

Mark Scheifele

C · #55

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. ColtonC · #20	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	10:43
J. DruryC · #18	1	0	1	5	4	0	0	13:06
N. KadriC · #91	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	16:11
P. KellyC · #17	0	1	1	0	3	0	0	11:49
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	8:23
G. LandeskogLW · #92	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	14:30
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	12:06
N. MacKinnonC · #29	2	0	-1	7	0	0	0	24:55
M. NecasC · #88	0	1	-1	0	0	0	0	19:20
B. NelsonC · #11	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	19:15
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	-1	5	2	0	2	12:02
L. O'ConnorRW · #25	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	13:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	17:36
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	1	3	0	2	2	17:29
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	28:52
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	18:56
J. MansonD · #42	0	0	-1	1	2	0	7	14:05
D. ToewsD · #7	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	17:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	24	2	22	.917	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	-1	0	1	0	5	11:27
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	25:06
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:04
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	9:49
B. LambertC · #93	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:10
A. LowryC · #17	0	0	-1	2	3	2	0	16:37
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:10
C. PerfettiC · #91	0	1	1	1	4	1	0	18:31
I. RosenRW · #27	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	9:49
M. ScheifeleC · #55	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	22:27
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	11:11
G. VilardiC · #13	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	21:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	1	1	2	3	0	17:56
H. FleuryD · #24	0	0	0	0	3	5	0	10:11
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	1	0	3	1	3	0	24:25
N. PionkD · #4	0	0	-1	0	3	1	2	20:38
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	0	1	0	3	2	15:55
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	0	2	1	4	0	23:51

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. HellebuyckG · #37	35	3	32	.914	59:53

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL leads series 2-1

Dec 20

WPG2@

COL3

Mar 14

COL1@

WPG3

Mar 27

COL3@

WPG2today

Mar 28

WPG4@

COL2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-18565%

WPG+15439%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat WPG 3-2. N. MacKinnon led the way — 2 G · 7 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	1	0	2	3
WPG	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

COL won 1 · WPG won 0

COL

WPG

Play-by-play · 310 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·19:45
Neal Pionk hit Cale Makar
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·19:25
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·19:18
Neal Pionk hit Sam Malinski
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·18:51
Dylan Samberg hit Parker Kelly
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·18:06
Brett Kulak Snap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·18:05
Brett Kulak Tip-In saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·17:41
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·17:28
Giveaway by Mark Scheifele
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·17:22
Brent Burns Slap Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·17:08
Dylan DeMelo hit Valeri Nichushkin
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·17:05
Brent Burns Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·17:02
Valeri Nichushkin Wrist Shot saved by Connor Hellebuyck
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·16:44
Giveaway by Cole Perfetti
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·16:00
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·16:00
TV Timeout
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·16:00
Neal Pionk Unsportsmanlike conduct against Devon Toews
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·16:00
Devon Toews Slashing against Neal Pionk
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·15:26
Cale Makar hit Jonathan Toews
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·15:00
Giveaway by Mark Scheifele
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·14:53
Cole Perfetti Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·14:51
Kyle Connor Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·14:18
Cole Perfetti hit Devon Toews
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·13:47
Jack Drury faceoff won against Gabriel Vilardi
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·13:47
Morgan Barron Fighting against Josh Manson
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·13:47
Josh Manson Fighting against Morgan Barron
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·13:47
Josh Manson Interference against Morgan Barron served by Ross Colton
· ·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·13:41
Valeri Nichushkin hit Isak Rosen
·
COL 3·WPG 2
3rd·13:02
Josh Manson hit Kyle Connor
·
COL 3·WPG 2

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 5.5·COL -185/WPG +154

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 3–2.

WPG +1.5 cashed (COL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

41.6%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
41.6%
P(WPG win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
41.6%
P(WPG win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
41.6%
P(WPG win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+154

Close price

+154

Open no-vig

37.8%

Close no-vig

37.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at WPG?: The model favors WPG, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheWinnipeg Jets

Elsewhere in the NHL