Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at MTL?

The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MTL

CBJ

38-23-11

MTL

40-21-10

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMTL -112

CBJ · top performer

Damon Severson

D · #78

1Points

—

SOG

MTL · top performer

Zack Bolduc

RW · #76

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	15:20
A. FantilliC · #19	0	0	0	4	8	0	0	18:35
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	14:43
D. HeinenLW · #43	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	12:33
B. JennerC · #38	0	1	1	1	3	0	2	13:53
I. LundestromC · #21	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	12:12
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	18:47
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	18:36
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	18:45
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	12:47
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	11:49
M. WoodLW · #11	0	0	1	1	3	1	2	8:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	15:04
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	1	3	3	0	0	20:36
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:37
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	-2	2	0	3	0	21:34
D. SeversonD · #78	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:23
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	27:21

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	20	2	18	.900	58:38

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	2	1	3	0	0	16:12
Z. BolducRW · #76	1	1	2	2	3	1	0	13:51
C. CaufieldRW · #13	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	17:48
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	9:40
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:15
J. EvansC · #71	0	1	2	0	2	1	2	18:56
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	8:15
O. KapanenC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:22
A. NewhookC · #15	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:32
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	19:24
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:38
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	7:00

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	17:18
N. DobsonD · #53	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	24:45
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	0	0	3	3	0	20:50
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	0	3	0	3	0	19:45
M. MathesonD · #8	0	1	1	3	0	4	0	21:24
J. StrubleD · #47	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	26	1	25	.962	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

MTL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Nov 18

MTL3@

CBJ4

Mar 26

CBJ1@

MTL2today

Apr 11

CBJ5@

MTL2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MTL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-10852%

MTL-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗SpreadBet MTL -1.5↗

Line movement · 51 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat CBJ 2-1. Z. Bolduc led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	1	0	0	1
MTL	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

CBJ won 0 · MTL won 1

CBJ

MTL

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:52
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:52
Timeout - Visitor
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:52
Icing
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:23
Mason Marchment Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:22
Adam Fantilli Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·19:04
Giveaway by Kirill Marchenko
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:55
Giveaway by Adam Fantilli
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:16
Takeaway by Zach Werenski
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:11
Sean Monahan Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:10
Conor Garland Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·18:05
Sean Monahan Backhand saved by Jakub Dobes
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·17:13
Giveaway by Dante Fabbro
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:42
Noah Dobson Slap Shot Above Crossbar
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:37
Jake Evans faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:37
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:35
Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:33
Cole Caufield Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:07
Giveaway by Lane Hutson
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:03
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:03
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·16:01
Lane Hutson Snap Shot saved by Jet Greaves
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:43
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:43
Timeout - Home
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:43
Puck in Netting
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·15:41
Nick Suzuki shot blocked by Ivan Provorov
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·14:44
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·14:44
Boone Jenner Interference - Goalkeeper against Jakub Dobes
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2
3rd·14:38
Boone Jenner Tip-In Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·MTL 2

Betting line

MTL -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ -108/MTL -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens held off Columbus Blue Jackets, 2–1.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (MTL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Cole Caufield · MTL18:060.7750.0%50.5%18:06 TOI · 0.77 iXG · 50.0% CF · 50.5% xGF
Mason Marchment · CBJ20:120.4882.1%88.9%20:12 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 82.1% CF · 88.9% xGF
Damon Severson · CBJ21:300.4659.4%71.3%21:30 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 59.4% CF · 71.3% xGF
Adam Fantilli · CBJ18:540.4678.9%87.0%18:54 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 78.9% CF · 87.0% xGF
Sean Monahan · CBJ18:540.3854.8%46.1%18:54 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 54.8% CF · 46.1% xGF
Kirill Marchenko · CBJ19:000.3579.4%84.5%19:00 TOI · 0.35 iXG · 79.4% CF · 84.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jakub Dobes · MTL25–1.962+1.6725–1 · .962 SV% · +1.67 GSAx
Jet Greaves · CBJ18–2.900+0.2218–2 · .900 SV% · +0.22 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.6%

ensemble · MTL favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(MTL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(MTL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(MTL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at MTL?: The model favors MTL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Columbus Blue JacketsMontreal Canadiens

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