Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4PHI

CHI

27-32-13

PHI

35-24-12

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasPHI -142

CHI · top performer

Connor Bedard

C · #98

1Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Alex Bump

LW · #20

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BedardC · #98	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	19:37
T. BertuzziLW · #59	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:19
S. BoisvertC · #12	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	9:03
A. BurakovskyLW · #28	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	12:39
R. DonatoC · #8	0	0	-2	1	2	0	0	12:22
A. FrondellC · #15	0	1	0	4	1	1	2	17:08
R. GreeneC · #20	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	19:09
N. LardisLW · #76	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	14:38
I. MikheyevRW · #95	0	0	-2	3	0	1	0	15:36
F. NazarC · #91	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	18:06
L. SlaggertLW · #84	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	8:06
T. TeravainenC · #86	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	10:06

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CrevierD · #46	0	1	0	1	0	2	2	16:32
E. Del MastroD · #38	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	17:25
W. KaiserD · #44	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	21:54
A. LevshunovD · #55	0	0	-3	0	0	1	2	22:20
S. RinzelD · #6	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	19:22
A. VlasicD · #72	0	0	-3	1	1	0	0	20:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KnightG · #30	42	5	37	.881	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	14:31
A. BumpLW · #20	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	10:41
N. CatesLW · #27	1	1	2	3	0	0	0	16:26
S. CouturierC · #14	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:54
C. DvorakC · #22	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	16:43
L. GlendeningC · #41	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	12:52
C. GrundstromRW · #91	0	0	1	2	3	0	0	13:09
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	2	6	1	0	11:39
T. KonecnyRW · #11	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:18
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	16:30
O. TippettRW · #74	0	2	2	3	2	0	0	15:16
T. ZegrasC · #46	0	1	1	7	0	1	2	16:31

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. AndraeD · #36	0	0	1	2	1	3	0	13:12
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	3	2	0	1	0	21:46
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	0	0	1	2	1	2	22:05
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	25:19
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	1	3	1	1	0	14:17
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	2	4	1	2	0	21:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. ErssonG · #33	26	1	25	.962	59:49

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CHI

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Dec 24

PHI3@

CHI1

Mar 26

CHI1@

PHI5today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CHI+12045%

PHI-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗SpreadBet PHI -1.5↗

Line movement · 63 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat CHI 5-1. A. Bump led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CHI	0	1	0	1
PHI	2	3	0	5

Period scoring

CHI won 0 · PHI won 2

CHI

PHI

Play-by-play · 297 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·19:25
Cam York shot blocked by Garnet Hathaway
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·19:02
Giveaway by Alex Vlasic
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·18:59
Cam York Snap Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·18:03
Ryan Greene Backhand saved by Samuel Ersson
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·17:48
Connor Bedard Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·17:37
Ilya Mikheyev Wrist Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·17:22
Noah Cates Snap Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·17:18
Takeaway by Noah Cates
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·17:18
Giveaway by Noah Cates
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·16:33
Denver Barkey Backhand saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·16:27
Sacha Boisvert shot blocked by Cam York
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·16:02
Trevor Zegras Backhand saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·15:32
Frank Nazar Snap Shot saved by Samuel Ersson
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·15:20
Luke Glendening faceoff won against Ryan Donato
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·15:20
Goalie Stopped
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·15:18
Cam York Wrap-around saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·15:15
Cam York Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·14:46
Carl Grundstrom Wrap-around saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·14:45
Giveaway by Artyom Levshunov
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·14:19
Anton Frondell faceoff won against Noah Cates
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·14:19
Puck in Benches
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·13:55
Luke Glendening shot blocked by Ethan Del Mastro
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·13:39
Ryan Donato faceoff won against Luke Glendening
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·13:39
Puck in Benches
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·13:20
Travis Konecny shot blocked by Ilya Mikheyev
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·13:14
Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·13:12
Nick Seeler Wrist Shot saved by Spencer Knight
·
CHI 1·PHI 5
3rd·12:45
Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Travis Konecny
·
CHI 1·PHI 5

Betting line

PHI -1.5·O/U 5.5·CHI +120/PHI -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers held off Chicago Blackhawks, 5–1.

PHI -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Trevor Zegras · PHI16:240.9368.4%80.5%16:24 TOI · 0.93 iXG · 68.4% CF · 80.5% xGF
Sean Couturier · PHI16:060.7662.5%77.1%16:06 TOI · 0.76 iXG · 62.5% CF · 77.1% xGF
Owen Tippett · PHI15:180.7464.5%76.9%15:18 TOI · 0.74 iXG · 64.5% CF · 76.9% xGF
Christian Dvorak · PHI16:540.5462.1%65.9%16:54 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 62.1% CF · 65.9% xGF
Alex Bump · PHI10:480.4154.2%54.9%10:48 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 54.2% CF · 54.9% xGF
Ilya Mikheyev · CHI15:420.4040.0%29.6%15:42 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 40.0% CF · 29.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Samuel Ersson · PHI25–1.962+1.1625–1 · .962 SV% · +1.16 GSAx
Spencer Knight · CHI37–5.881+0.5637–5 · .881 SV% · +0.56 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.2%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
63.2%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.2%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.2%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-142

Close price

-142

Open no-vig

56.3%

Close no-vig

56.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CHI at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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