NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

MIN

41-20-12

FLA

35-33-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -166

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Florida Panthers and beat them, 3–2.

FLA +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MIN · top performer

Joel Eriksson Ek

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

MIN41-20-12

FLA35-33-3

MIN41-20-12FLA35-33-3

MIN

41-20-12

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

FLA

35-33-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 25

FLA4@

MIN3

Mar 26

MIN3@

FLA2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-16662%

FLA+14042%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat FLA 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	0	2	1	3
FLA	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · FLA won 1

MIN

FLA

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 3·FLA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:55
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
MIN 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:55
Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (34)
·
MIN 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:54
Joel Eriksson Ek Tip-In saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:52
Giveaway by Gustav Forsling
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:47
Tomas Nosek faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:47
Icing
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:40
Quinn Hughes Slap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:05
Mats Zuccarello Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:03
Tomas Nosek hit Jonas Brodin
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·18:47
Tomas Nosek faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·18:47
Aaron Ekblad Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (19), Matthew Tkachuk (15)
· ·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·18:39
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:34
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:33
Carter Verhaeghe shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:24
Aaron Ekblad shot blocked by Michael McCarron
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:22
Sam Bennett hit Brock Faber
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:19
Eetu Luostarinen shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:13
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:13
Icing
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:05
Brock Faber shot blocked by Michael McCarron
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:00
Sam Bennett shot blocked by Brock Faber
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:53
Carter Verhaeghe Tip-In saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:50
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:50
Icing
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:44
Giveaway by Matthew Tkachuk
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:35
Aaron Ekblad Backhand High and Wide Right
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:00
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Michael McCarron
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:57
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 2·FLA 1

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -166/FLA +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 25 skaters with EDGE

Brock FaberMIN · D
BURSTS2799+
Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Matt BoldyMIN · LW
SHOT MPH92.897
Vinnie HinostrozaFLA · C
SKATE MPH23.696
Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
SKATE MPH23.296

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+140

Close price

+140

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

FLA vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

Matt BoldyMIN
3.8± 1.9high
Joel Eriksson EkMIN
3.3± 1.6high
Ryan HartmanMIN
3.0± 2.3high

Goals

Matt BoldyMIN
0.5± 0.7high
Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Quinn HughesMIN
1.3± 1.1high
Kirill KaprizovMIN
1.2± 1.1high
Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands