Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at FLA?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1MIN

MIN

41-20-12

FLA

35-33-3

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasMIN -166

MIN · top performer

Joel Eriksson Ek

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Matthew Tkachuk

LW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoldyLW · #12	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:15
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	0	-1	2	2	1	0	16:00
J. Eriksson EkC · #14	1	0	0	5	2	0	0	14:25
N. FolignoLW · #71	0	0	1	4	0	1	2	12:37
M. FolignoLW · #17	1	0	1	2	2	0	0	12:02
R. HartmanRW · #38	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	14:50
M. JohanssonLW · #90	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	15:45
K. KaprizovLW · #97	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	18:16
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	-1	2	3	2	0	17:20
V. TarasenkoRW · #91	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:34
Y. TreninC · #13	0	1	1	2	3	2	0	13:10
M. ZuccarelloRW · #36	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	16:41

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodinD · #25	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	19:30
B. FaberD · #7	0	1	0	5	1	2	0	24:53
Q. HughesD · #43	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	26:55
J. MiddletonD · #5	0	0	0	2	0	6	0	17:42
J. PetryD · #2	0	1	1	4	1	1	0	14:33
J. SpurgeonD · #46	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:32

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WallstedtG · #30	20	2	18	.900	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	1	2	0	1	2	0	18:52
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	-2	0	1	0	0	16:21
N. FooteLW · #25	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:22
N. GregorLW · #18	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	13:37
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	19:58
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	14:37
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	16:48
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	16:50
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	0	0	-1	1	5	1	0	15:29
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0:49
M. TkachukLW · #19	1	1	2	4	1	0	0	18:19
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	18:11

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	14:50
A. EkbladD · #5	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	22:39
G. ForslingD · #42	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	20:46
S. JonesD · #3	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	21:53
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	21:03
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	-1	0	6	1	0	17:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. TarasovG · #40	50	3	47	.940	58:10

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MIN

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 25

FLA4@

MIN3

Mar 26

MIN3@

FLA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MIN-16662%

FLA+14042%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 64 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MIN beat FLA 3-2. J. Eriksson Ek led the way — 1 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MIN	0	2	1	3
FLA	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

MIN won 1 · FLA won 1

MIN

FLA

Play-by-play · 335 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MIN 3·FLA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MIN 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:55
Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Luke Kunin
·
MIN 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:55
Joel Eriksson Ek Goal (18) Wrist Shot, assists: Brock Faber (34)
·
MIN 3·FLA 2
3rd·19:54
Joel Eriksson Ek Tip-In saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:52
Giveaway by Gustav Forsling
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:47
Tomas Nosek faceoff won against Joel Eriksson Ek
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:47
Icing
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:40
Quinn Hughes Slap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:05
Mats Zuccarello Snap Shot saved by Daniil Tarasov
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·19:03
Tomas Nosek hit Jonas Brodin
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·18:47
Tomas Nosek faceoff won against Ryan Hartman
·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·18:47
Aaron Ekblad Goal (4) Slap Shot, assists: Seth Jones (19), Matthew Tkachuk (15)
· ·
MIN 2·FLA 2
3rd·18:39
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:34
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:33
Carter Verhaeghe shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:24
Aaron Ekblad shot blocked by Michael McCarron
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:22
Sam Bennett hit Brock Faber
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:19
Eetu Luostarinen shot blocked by Jake Middleton
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:13
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:13
Icing
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:05
Brock Faber shot blocked by Michael McCarron
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:00
Sam Bennett shot blocked by Brock Faber
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:53
Carter Verhaeghe Tip-In saved by Jesper Wallstedt
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:50
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:50
Icing
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:44
Giveaway by Matthew Tkachuk
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:35
Aaron Ekblad Backhand High and Wide Right
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:00
Matthew Tkachuk shot blocked by Michael McCarron
·
MIN 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:57
Eetu Luostarinen faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
MIN 2·FLA 1

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 6.5·MIN -166/FLA +140

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innesota Wild went into Florida Panthers and beat them, 3–2.

FLA +1.5 cashed (MIN won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Joel Eriksson Ek · MIN14:360.9364.0%63.4%14:36 TOI · 0.93 iXG · 64.0% CF · 63.4% xGF
Michael McCarron · MIN17:240.6150.0%82.9%17:24 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 50.0% CF · 82.9% xGF
Bobby Brink · MIN16:000.5957.5%86.1%16:00 TOI · 0.59 iXG · 57.5% CF · 86.1% xGF
Nick Foligno · MIN12:420.4970.4%77.7%12:42 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 70.4% CF · 77.7% xGF
Aaron Ekblad · FLA22:420.4254.0%41.8%22:42 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 54.0% CF · 41.8% xGF
Marcus Johansson · MIN15:540.4151.1%82.0%15:54 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 51.1% CF · 82.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Daniil Tarasov · FLA47–3.940+1.7747–3 · .940 SV% · +1.77 GSAx
Jesper Wallstedt · MIN18–2.900+0.2518–2 · .900 SV% · +0.25 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
52.4%
P(FLA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(FLA win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+140

Close price

+140

Open no-vig

40.0%

Close no-vig

40.0%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIN at FLA?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Minnesota WildFlorida Panthers

Elsewhere in the NHL