Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at OTT?

The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PIT

PIT

36-20-16

OTT

38-24-10

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-1VegasOTT -148

PIT · top performer

Rickard Rakell

RW · #67

3Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:37
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	10:36
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	21:24
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	6:39
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:14
B. KindelC · #81	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	15:41
V. KoivunenRW · #41	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	10:18
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:44
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	-1	4	1	1	0	17:25
R. RakellRW · #67	2	1	1	6	1	1	0	20:52
B. RustRW · #17	0	1	1	4	0	3	0	20:32
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	0	3	4	1	0	16:12
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	22:39
E. KarlssonD · #65	1	2	1	8	0	1	2	26:08
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	21:11
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:22
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	21:02

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	29	3	26	.897	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	15:29
D. BathersonRW · #19	2	0	1	4	3	0	0	19:41
N. CousinsC · #21	1	0	0	2	4	1	0	12:32
D. CozensC · #24	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	18:24
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	8:00
W. FoegeleLW · #37	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:23
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	16:08
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	15:37
S. PintoC · #12	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	17:21
T. StutzleC · #18	0	2	1	3	2	0	0	23:21
B. TkachukLW · #7	0	1	0	4	6	0	0	19:01
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	1	4	1	0	11:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DonovanD · #56	0	0	0	0	2	1	0	9:22
T. KlevenD · #43	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	27:00
N. MatinpaloD · #33	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	18:00
J. SpenceD · #10	0	1	0	1	3	0	0	27:48
C. YakemchukD · #58	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:42
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	-1	1	0	0	2	22:22

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	40	3	37	.925	65:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

OTT wins series 2-1

Dec 19

PIT0@

OTT4

Feb 3

OTT3@

PIT2

Mar 26

PIT4@

OTT3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+12445%

OTT-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat OTT 4-3. R. Rakell led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
PIT	1	1	1	0	1	4
OTT	1	1	1	0	0	3

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · OTT won 0

PIT

OTT

Play-by-play · 351 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
PIT 2·OTT 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
PIT 2·OTT 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
PIT 2·OTT 1
SO·0:00
Ben Kindel Goal Snap Shot
PIT 2·OTT 1
SO·0:00
Shane Pinto Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 2·OTT 1
SO·0:00
Egor Chinakhov Goal Snap Shot
PIT 2·OTT 1
SO·0:00
Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 2·OTT 1
SO·0:00
Rickard Rakell Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
PIT 2·OTT 1
SO·0:00
Drake Batherson Goal Backhand
PIT 2·OTT 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
PIT 2·OTT 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·4:57
Brady Tkachuk Slap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·4:43
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·4:43
Goalie Stopped
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·4:41
Thomas Novak Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·4:31
Drake Batherson Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·4:17
Thomas Novak Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·3:34
Brady Tkachuk Tip-In saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·3:05
Erik Karlsson Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·3:04
Erik Karlsson Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·2:37
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Connor Dewar
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·2:37
Goalie Stopped
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·2:36
Tim Stützle Backhand saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·2:29
Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·2:29
Goalie Stopped
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·2:27
Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·2:25
Tim Stützle hit Kris Letang
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·1:50
Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner
·
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·1:32
Giveaway by Kris Letang
PIT 3·OTT 3
OT·1:16
Ben Kindel faceoff won against Claude Giroux
·
PIT 3·OTT 3

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +124/OTT -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 4–3.

PIT +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Drake Batherson · OTT19:541.0550.0%50.9%19:54 TOI · 1.05 iXG · 50.0% CF · 50.9% xGF
Rickard Rakell · PIT21:061.0169.2%75.2%21:06 TOI · 1.01 iXG · 69.2% CF · 75.2% xGF
Egor Chinakhov · PIT21:420.8354.0%60.4%21:42 TOI · 0.83 iXG · 54.0% CF · 60.4% xGF
Erik Karlsson · PIT26:180.6960.7%60.7%26:18 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 60.7% CF · 60.7% xGF
Tim Stützle · OTT23:300.5548.2%46.7%23:30 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 48.2% CF · 46.7% xGF
Brady Tkachuk · FLA19:120.4963.9%64.8%19:12 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 63.9% CF · 64.8% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Linus Ullmark · OTT37–3.925+1.4537–3 · .925 SV% · +1.45 GSAx
Stuart Skinner · PIT26–3.897+0.5926–3 · .897 SV% · +0.59 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
61.1%
P(OTT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.1%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.1%
P(OTT win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at OTT?: The model favors OTT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

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