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FINAL+1PIT
PIT

PIT

36-20-16

43
OTT

OTT

38-24-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesOTT wins series 2-1VegasOTT -148

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins went into Ottawa Senators and beat them, 4–3.

PIT +1.5 cashed (OTT lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PIT · top performer

PIT
Rickard Rakell

Rickard Rakell

RW · #67

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Drake Batherson

Drake Batherson

RW · #19

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
4
3
PIT36-20-16OTT38-24-10
PIT

PIT

36-20-16

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

38-24-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

4

Season series

OTT wins series 2-1

Dec 19PITPIT0@OTTOTT4
Feb 3OTTOTT3@PITPIT2
Mar 26PITPIT4@OTTOTT3today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PITPIT+12445%
OTTOTT-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat OTT 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
PIT111014
OTT111003

Period scoring

PIT won 1 · OTT won 0

1
1

1

1
1

2

1
1

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

PIT
OTT

Play-by-play · 351 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    PIT 2·OTT 1

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    PIT 2·OTT 1

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    PIT 2·OTT 1

  4. SO·0:00

    Ben Kindel Goal Snap Shot

    PIT 2·OTT 1

  5. SO·0:00

    Shane Pinto Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 2·OTT 1

  6. SO·0:00

    Egor Chinakhov Goal Snap Shot

    PIT 2·OTT 1

  7. SO·0:00

    Tim Stützle Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 2·OTT 1

  8. SO·0:00

    Rickard Rakell Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    PIT 2·OTT 1

  9. SO·0:00

    Drake Batherson Goal Backhand

    PIT 2·OTT 1

  10. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    PIT 2·OTT 1

  11. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  12. OT·4:57

    Brady Tkachuk Slap Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  13. OT·4:43

    Ben Kindel faceoff won against Brady Tkachuk

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  14. OT·4:43

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  15. OT·4:41

    Thomas Novak Backhand saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  16. OT·4:31

    Drake Batherson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  17. OT·4:17

    Thomas Novak Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  18. OT·3:34

    Brady Tkachuk Tip-In saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  19. OT·3:05

    Erik Karlsson Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  20. OT·3:04

    Erik Karlsson Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  21. OT·2:37

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Connor Dewar

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  22. OT·2:37

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  23. OT·2:36

    Tim Stützle Backhand saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  24. OT·2:29

    Brady Tkachuk faceoff won against Noel Acciari

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  25. OT·2:29

    Goalie Stopped

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  26. OT·2:27

    Brady Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  27. OT·2:25

    Tim Stützle hit Kris Letang

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  28. OT·1:50

    Dylan Cozens Wrist Shot saved by Stuart Skinner

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  29. OT·1:32

    Giveaway by Kris Letang

    PIT 3·OTT 3

  30. OT·1:16

    Ben Kindel faceoff won against Claude Giroux

    ·

    PIT 3·OTT 3

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

40

Shots

29

50.0

PCT

50.0

4

PIM

4

16

Faceoffs W

36

15

Blocks

12

18

Giveaways

18

8

Takeaways

3

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +124/OTT -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Egor ChinakhovPIT · RW
    SHOT MPH94.799
  • Erik KarlssonPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.897
  • Nikolas MatinpaloOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.592
  • Samuel GirardPIT · D
    SKATE MPH22.590
  • Sidney CrosbyPIT · C
    SHOT MPH88.787

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR