Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1STL

32-31-7

STL

30-30-11

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesSTL leads series 2-0VegasSTL -130

SJ · top performer

Alexander Wennberg

C · #21

1Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	0	-2	3	1	0	0	22:56
I. ChernyshovLW · #92	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	15:16
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	0	3	2	0	0	19:29
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	10:07
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	10:24
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	16:35
M. MisaC · #77	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	12:59
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	0	1	1	0	17	7:55
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	1	1	2	3	0	0	19:33
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:17
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:03
A. WennbergC · #21	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	22:37

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	20:57
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	1	3	2	0	0	21:33
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	-1	1	3	2	0	20:02
N. LeddyD · #4	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	19:44
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	17:36
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	-1	0	3	0	2	22:52

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. AskarovG · #30	11	0	11	1.000	29:02
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	12	2	10	.833	35:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	15:55
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	19:38
D. DvorskyRW · #54	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	18:08
J. FinleyC · #37	0	0	-1	1	2	2	0	11:05
D. HollowayLW · #81	1	1	2	3	1	1	0	20:54
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	17:17
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	15:14
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	20:03
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	12:52
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:09
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	-1	2	5	0	0	11:47
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	10:19

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	1	2	0	2	0	2	23:30
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	23:05
M. KesselD · #51	0	0	-1	3	2	2	0	13:07
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	17:17
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	0	2	4	5	5	20:49
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	23:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. HoferG · #30	25	1	24	.960	64:57

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL leads series 2-0

Mar 7

STL3@

SJ2

Mar 27

SJ1@

STL2today

Mar 31

STL4@

SJ5

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+11048%

STL-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat SJ 2-1. D. Holloway led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
SJ	0	0	1	0	1
STL	0	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

SJ won 1 · STL won 2

STL

Play-by-play · 336 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:57
Game End
SJ 1·STL 2
OT·4:57
End of OT
SJ 1·STL 2
OT·4:57
Dylan Holloway Goal (16) Backhand, assists: Philip Broberg (22)
·
SJ 1·STL 2
OT·4:47
Dmitry Orlov Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·3:50
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Dalibor Dvorsky
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·3:50
Puck Frozen - Goalie
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·3:47
Dalibor Dvorsky Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·3:44
Alexander Wennberg hit Cam Fowler
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·3:38
Dalibor Dvorsky Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·3:05
Sam Dickinson Poke saved by Joel Hofer
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·2:58
Takeaway by William Eklund
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·2:14
William Eklund Wrist Shot saved by Joel Hofer
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·1:25
Pavel Buchnevich shot blocked by Philip Broberg
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·0:23
Dalibor Dvorsky faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·0:23
Puck in Crowd
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·0:21
Jimmy Snuggerud shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·0:00
Jack Finley faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 1·STL 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·19:33
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·19:33
Icing
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·19:23
Kiefer Sherwood shot blocked by Colton Parayko
·
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·19:08
Dmitry Orlov hit Jonatan Berggren
·
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·18:43
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·18:43
Puck in Netting
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·18:41
Logan Mailloux shot blocked by Barclay Goodrow
·
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·18:35
Mario Ferraro hit Dalibor Dvorsky
·
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·18:00
Pavel Buchnevich shot blocked by Shakir Mukhamadullin
·
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·17:50
Giveaway by Shakir Mukhamadullin
SJ 1·STL 1
3rd·17:33
Jonatan Berggren Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 1·STL 1

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 5.5·SJ +110/STL -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues held off San Jose Sharks, 2–1 in overtime.

SJ +1.5 cashed (STL won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.2%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
56.2%
P(STL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.2%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.2%
P(STL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

San Jose SharksSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL