Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

DAL

43-18-11

NYI

41-27-5

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesNYI win series 2-0VegasDAL -118

DAL · top performer

Matt Duchene

C · #95

1Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Bo Horvat

C · #14

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	10:43
N. BastianRW · #11	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	8:32
J. BennLW · #14	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:00
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:51
M. BourqueC · #22	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:28
M. DucheneC · #95	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	19:56
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	-1	1	3	0	2	9:28
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	15:27
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9:16
W. JohnstonC · #53	0	0	1	2	3	0	2	22:02
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	23:11
S. SteelC · #18	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	13:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	-1	1	4	2	0	16:11
T. HarleyD · #55	0	1	1	0	1	3	2	25:11
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	23:31
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	18:24
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	18:14
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	15:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	25	2	23	.920	56:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	17:48
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	1	3	0	2	11:27
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	7:46
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	1	0	4	1	1	0	18:22
S. HolmstromRW · #92	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	18:31
B. HorvatC · #14	1	0	0	3	1	0	0	21:08
A. LeeLW · #27	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	16:24
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	10:00
J. PageauC · #44	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	18:06
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	11:51
C. RitchieC · #64	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	14:07
B. SchennC · #10	0	0	1	1	1	3	0	16:04

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BoqvistD · #34	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	12:16
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:24
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	21:45
R. PulockD · #6	0	1	0	1	0	3	0	20:53
M. SchaeferD · #48	0	2	1	3	1	2	0	26:38
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	18:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NYI win series 2-0

Nov 19

NYI3@

DAL2

Mar 26

DAL1@

NYI2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-11854%

NYI-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 49 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat DAL 2-1. B. Horvat led the way — 1 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	0	0	1	1
NYI	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · NYI won 1

DAL

NYI

Play-by-play · 264 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·19:58
Thomas Harley shot blocked by Emil Heineman
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·19:28
Wyatt Johnston Backhand Failed Bank Attempt
· ·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·19:26
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·19:14
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·19:07
Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Simon Holmstrom
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·18:32
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·18:32
Timeout - Visitor
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·18:32
Puck Frozen - Goalie
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·18:16
Giveaway by Ryan Pulock
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·17:42
Lian Bichsel hit Mathew Barzal
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·17:28
Brayden Schenn Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·17:25
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Lian Bichsel
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·17:01
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Mavrik Bourque
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·17:01
Matt Duchene Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (17), Thomas Harley (27)
· ·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·16:10
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·16:10
Icing
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:49
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:49
Goalie Stopped
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:47
Arttu Hyry Backhand Wide Right
· ·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:46
Nathan Bastian Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:45
Nathan Bastian Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:41
Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Calum Ritchie
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:18
Giveaway by Carson Soucy
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:13
Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Ondrej Palat
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·14:02
Jamie Benn faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·14:02
Icing
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·13:56
Marc Gatcomb hit Jason Robertson
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·13:54
Kyle MacLean shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
·
DAL 0·NYI 2

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -118/NYI -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Dallas Stars, 2–1.

NYI +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Nathan Bastian · DAL8:300.6860.0%62.8%8:30 TOI · 0.68 iXG · 60.0% CF · 62.8% xGF
Emil Heineman · NYI18:180.6040.0%44.0%18:18 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 40.0% CF · 44.0% xGF
Jason Robertson · DAL23:300.5662.2%52.1%23:30 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 62.2% CF · 52.1% xGF
#848422114:060.5055.9%54.3%14:06 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 55.9% CF · 54.3% xGF
Mavrik Bourque · DAL17:420.4753.8%47.2%17:42 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 53.8% CF · 47.2% xGF
Matthew Schaefer · NYI26:420.4453.2%61.3%26:42 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 53.2% CF · 61.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Ilya Sorokin · NYI26–1.963+1.7226–1 · .963 SV% · +1.72 GSAx
Jake Oettinger · DAL23–2.920+1.5123–2 · .920 SV% · +1.51 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.4%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
53.4%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.4%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.4%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Dallas StarsNew York Islanders

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