NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NYI

DAL

43-18-11

NYI

41-27-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesNYI win series 2-0VegasDAL -118

Recap · NHL

ew York Islanders held off Dallas Stars, 2–1.

NYI +1.5 cashed (DAL lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

Jamie Benn

LW · #14

1Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Emil Heineman

LW · #51

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

DAL43-18-11

NYI41-27-5

DAL43-18-11NYI41-27-5

DAL

43-18-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

NYI

41-27-5

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

NYI win series 2-0

Nov 19

NYI3@

DAL2

Mar 26

DAL1@

NYI2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL-11854%

NYI-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYI beat DAL 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	0	0	1	1
NYI	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

DAL won 0 · NYI won 1

DAL

NYI

Play-by-play · 264 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·19:58
Thomas Harley shot blocked by Emil Heineman
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·19:28
Wyatt Johnston Backhand Failed Bank Attempt
· ·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·19:26
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Ryan Pulock
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·19:14
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Matthew Schaefer
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·19:07
Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Simon Holmstrom
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·18:32
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·18:32
Timeout - Visitor
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·18:32
Puck Frozen - Goalie
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·18:16
Giveaway by Ryan Pulock
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·17:42
Lian Bichsel hit Mathew Barzal
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·17:28
Brayden Schenn Wrist Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·17:25
Mathew Barzal shot blocked by Lian Bichsel
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·17:01
Casey Cizikas faceoff won against Mavrik Bourque
·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·17:01
Matt Duchene Goal (14) Wrist Shot, assists: Jamie Benn (17), Thomas Harley (27)
· ·
DAL 1·NYI 2
3rd·16:10
Jean-Gabriel Pageau faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·16:10
Icing
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:49
Matt Duchene faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:49
Goalie Stopped
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:47
Arttu Hyry Backhand Wide Right
· ·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:46
Nathan Bastian Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:45
Nathan Bastian Wrist Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:41
Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Calum Ritchie
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:18
Giveaway by Carson Soucy
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·15:13
Nils Lundkvist shot blocked by Ondrej Palat
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·14:02
Jamie Benn faceoff won against Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·14:02
Icing
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·13:56
Marc Gatcomb hit Jason Robertson
·
DAL 0·NYI 2
3rd·13:54
Kyle MacLean shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
·
DAL 0·NYI 2

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL -118/NYI -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE

Matthew SchaeferNYI · D
BURSTS26999+
Ryan PulockNYI · D
SHOT MPH103.099+
Mathew BarzalNYI · C
DIST MI274.399
Emil HeinemanNYI · LW
SHOT MPH97.399
Bo HorvatNYI · C
SHOT MPH93.494

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

NYI vs DAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 132 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jason RobertsonDAL
3.9± 2.0high
Bo HorvatNYI
2.9± 0.9high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
2.7± 1.8high

Goals

Jason RobertsonDAL
0.8± 0.6high
Wyatt JohnstonDAL
0.6± 0.7high
Mavrik BourqueDAL
0.4± 1.0high

Points

Jason RobertsonDAL
1.3± 0.9high
Matt DucheneDAL
1.2± 1.2high
Mikko RantanenDAL
1.1± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands