Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at TB?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SEA

SEA

32-29-10

44-21-6

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasTB -290

SEA · top performer

Brandon Montour

D · #62

2Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Jake Guentzel

C · #59

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	-2	2	1	2	0	20:19
B. CattonC · #27	0	1	0	1	1	0	5	18:21
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	18:50
O. Fisker MolgaardC · #78	0	1	1	1	1	2	0	11:46
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	16:26
K. KakkoRW · #84	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	15:23
B. McMannC · #74	1	1	1	3	2	0	0	20:45
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	11:18
C. StephensonC · #9	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	24:18
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	0	0	2	2	0	14:51
S. WrightC · #51	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	10:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	1	2	1	1	2	21:40
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	1	1	1	2	2	15:48
C. FleuryD · #8	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	6:56
A. LarssonD · #6	0	1	0	0	6	3	0	25:17
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	0	1	0	5	0	19:59
B. MontourD · #62	2	0	2	5	0	3	4	23:04
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	8:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. GrubauerG · #31	33	3	30	.909	62:47

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	8:19
A. CirelliC · #71	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:43
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	14:24
G. GoncalvesC · #93	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:41
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	16:14
J. GuentzelC · #59	1	1	0	3	1	0	0	19:47
B. HagelLW · #38	0	1	-1	5	0	0	0	22:09
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	-1	4	2	0	4	12:49
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	18:51
N. PaulLW · #20	0	0	-2	0	4	0	0	9:01
C. PerryRW · #10	1	0	-1	1	0	0	2	7:48
B. PointC · #21	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	18:22

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CernakD · #81	0	0	-2	1	4	1	0	13:37
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	2	0	1	1	1	0	21:23
E. LillebergD · #78	0	0	0	3	3	1	2	18:48
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	18:54
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	0	0	0	2	5	21:46
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	1	1	5	1	1	0	26:45

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	20	4	16	.800	62:47

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 18

TB6@

SEA2

Mar 26

SEA4@

TB3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+23530%

TB-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 48 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat TB 4-3. B. Montour led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
SEA	2	1	0	1	4
TB	1	2	0	0	3

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · TB won 1

SEA

Play-by-play · 298 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:47
Game End
SEA 4·TB 3
OT·2:47
End of OT
SEA 4·TB 3
OT·2:47
Brandon Montour Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Shane Wright (15), Berkly Catton (9)
· ·
SEA 4·TB 3
OT·2:13
Charle-Edouard D'Astous Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
SEA 3·TB 3
OT·1:49
Gage Goncalves Snap Shot Wide Right
·
SEA 3·TB 3
OT·0:34
Brandon Hagel Snap Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 3·TB 3
OT·0:00
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
SEA 3·TB 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·19:59
Zemgus Girgensons faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·19:59
Off-side
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·19:37
Kaapo Kakko shot blocked by Emil Lilleberg
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·19:33
Chandler Stephenson faceoff won against Zemgus Girgensons
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·19:33
Goalie Stopped
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·19:31
Brandon Montour Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·18:43
Takeaway by Brandon Montour
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·18:40
Brayden Point faceoff won against Matty Beniers
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·18:40
Goalie Stopped
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·18:38
Freddy Gaudreau Backhand saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·18:18
Emil Lilleberg hit Bobby McMann
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·18:13
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·18:13
Goalie Stopped
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·18:11
Emil Lilleberg Slap Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·18:08
Anthony Cirelli faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·18:08
Icing
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·17:29
Giveaway by J.J. Moser
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·16:44
Matty Beniers faceoff won against Jake Guentzel
·
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·16:44
Puck in Netting
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·16:29
Giveaway by Eeli Tolvanen
SEA 3·TB 3
3rd·16:27
Giveaway by Emil Lilleberg
SEA 3·TB 3

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·SEA +235/TB -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken went into Tampa Bay Lightning and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

SEA +1.5 cashed (TB lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Brandon Hagel · TBL22:240.6472.7%69.2%22:24 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 72.7% CF · 69.2% xGF
Bobby McMann · SEA20:540.5830.0%41.0%20:54 TOI · 0.58 iXG · 30.0% CF · 41.0% xGF
Pontus Holmberg · TBL13:060.4878.3%78.3%13:06 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 78.3% CF · 78.3% xGF
Brandon Montour · SEA23:120.3627.9%35.3%23:12 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 27.9% CF · 35.3% xGF
Anthony Cirelli · TBL18:000.2778.4%79.5%18:00 TOI · 0.27 iXG · 78.4% CF · 79.5% xGF
Jake Guentzel · TBL20:000.2573.1%55.1%20:00 TOI · 0.25 iXG · 73.1% CF · 55.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Philipp Grubauer · SEA30–3.909+0.3730–3 · .909 SV% · +0.37 GSAx
Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL16–4.800-1.9016–4 · .800 SV% · -1.90 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

70.0%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
69.8%
P(TB win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
69.8%
P(TB win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
70.2%
P(TB win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.20 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

99% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+235

Close price

+235

Open no-vig

28.6%

Close no-vig

28.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at TB?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

TB vs SEA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

138

projections · 126 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nikita KucherovTB
3.5± 2.3high
Brandon HagelTB
3.2± 1.4high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high

Goals

Brandon HagelTB
0.6± 0.8high
Mackie SamoskevichSEA
0.4± 0.5high
Jake GuentzelTB
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Nikita KucherovTB
1.1± 0.9high
Brandon HagelTB
1.0± 0.9high
Jake GuentzelTB
1.0± 0.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Seattle KrakenTampa Bay Lightning

Elsewhere in the NHL