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FINAL+2NJ
NJ

NJ

37-32-2

42
NSH

NSH

34-29-9

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-0VegasNSH -112

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 4–2.

NJ +1.5 cashed (NSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NJ · top performer

NJ
Jesper Bratt

Jesper Bratt

LW · #63

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

NSH
Luke Evangelista

Luke Evangelista

RW · #77

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · New Jersey Devils at Nashville Predators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
NJ37-32-2NSH34-29-9
NJ

NJ

37-32-2

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
NSH

NSH

34-29-9

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

26

Season series

NJ wins series 2-0

Jan 30NSHNSH2@NJNJ3
Mar 27NJNJ4@NSHNSH2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJNJ-10852%
NSHNSH-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat NSH 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NJ1124
NSH0202

Period scoring

NJ won 2 · NSH won 1

1
0

1

1
2

2

2
0

3

NJ
NSH

Play-by-play · 278 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NJ 4·NSH 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NJ 4·NSH 2

  3. 3rd·20:00

    Luke Evangelista Misconduct

    NJ 4·NSH 2

  4. 3rd·19:42

    Nick Bjugstad Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    ·

    NJ 4·NSH 2

  5. 3rd·19:27

    Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Erik Haula

    ·

    NJ 4·NSH 2

  6. 3rd·19:27

    Steven Stamkos Misconduct

    NJ 4·NSH 2

  7. 3rd·19:27

    Timo Meier Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (22), Jonas Siegenthaler (11)

    · ·

    NJ 4·NSH 2

  8. 3rd·19:24

    Timo Meier shot blocked by Luke Evangelista

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  9. 3rd·19:10

    Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Jesper Bratt

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  10. 3rd·19:04

    Steven Stamkos Tip-In saved by Jacob Markstrom

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  11. 3rd·18:15

    Matthew Wood Wrist Shot Hit Left Post

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  12. 3rd·18:08

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Cody Glass

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  13. 3rd·18:08

    Icing

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  14. 3rd·18:05

    Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Right

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  15. 3rd·18:00

    Roman Josi shot blocked by Cody Glass

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  16. 3rd·17:51

    Ryan O'Reilly Snap Shot Above Crossbar

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  17. 3rd·17:45

    Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Cody Glass

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  18. 3rd·17:45

    Icing

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  19. 3rd·16:45

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Erik Haula

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  20. 3rd·16:45

    TV Timeout

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  21. 3rd·16:45

    Goalie Stopped

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  22. 3rd·16:42

    Nick Perbix Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  23. 3rd·16:10

    Jack Hughes Slap Shot saved by Justus Annunen

    · ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  24. 3rd·16:02

    Jack Hughes Slap Shot Wide Right

    · ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  25. 3rd·15:55

    Timo Meier hit Nicolas Hague

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  26. 3rd·15:51

    Takeaway by Steven Stamkos

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  27. 3rd·15:23

    Dawson Mercer Backhand Wide Left

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  28. 3rd·15:19

    Giveaway by Adam Wilsby

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  29. 3rd·14:48

    Nico Hischier Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

  30. 3rd·14:41

    Jonathan Marchessault Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    NJ 3·NSH 2

Team stats

NJ

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

30

Shots

17

33.3

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

26

30

Faceoffs W

16

17

Blocks

13

14

Giveaways

13

5

Takeaways

3

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ -108/NSH -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 11 skaters with EDGE
  • Ryan O'ReillyNSH · C
    DIST MI265.898
  • Brady SkjeiNSH · D
    SKATE MPH23.497
  • Filip ForsbergNSH · LW
    DIST MI246.195
  • Roman JosiNSH · D
    DIST MI245.490
  • Adam WilsbyNSH · D
    BURSTS6889

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(NSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR