Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at NSH?

The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2NJ

37-32-2

NSH

34-29-9

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesNJ wins series 2-0VegasNSH -112

NJ · top performer

Nico Hischier

C · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NSH · top performer

Steven Stamkos

C · #91

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	9:24
J. BrattLW · #63	1	2	1	1	0	2	0	18:41
C. BrownRW · #16	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:36
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	8:36
E. DadonovLW · #33	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:06
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	13:25
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	12:34
N. HischierC · #13	2	0	2	3	0	1	0	18:06
J. HughesC · #86	0	2	1	7	0	0	0	23:08
T. MeierRW · #28	1	0	1	4	3	2	0	18:39
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:01
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	0	3	3	1	0	9:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	5	2	0	19:31
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	22:38
L. HughesD · #43	0	0	1	3	0	1	0	20:21
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	17:25
S. NemecD · #17	0	1	0	1	1	2	0	17:18
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	2	1	1	1	3	2	20:03

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	17	2	15	.882	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	1	-1	2	0	1	10	15:44
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	20:21
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	17:03
T. JostC · #17	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	14:36
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	-1	0	6	1	0	14:08
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	17:45
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	20:39
R. SchaeferLW · #49	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	9:12
S. StamkosC · #91	1	0	-1	6	0	0	10	18:11
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	1	1	0	0	1	2	10:44
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	8:20
M. WoodRW · #71	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	13:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. HagueD · #41	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	21:35
R. JosiD · #59	0	0	-1	2	0	3	0	25:46
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	18:40
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	21:48
R. UfkoD · #85	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	13:01
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	16:08

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AnnunenG · #29	29	3	26	.897	58:18

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

NSH

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NJ wins series 2-0

Jan 30

NSH2@

NJ3

Mar 27

NJ4@

NSH2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ-10852%

NSH-11253%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 88 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NJ beat NSH 4-2. N. Hischier led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	1	1	2	4
NSH	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

NJ won 2 · NSH won 1

NSH

Play-by-play · 278 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 4·NSH 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 4·NSH 2
3rd·20:00
Luke Evangelista Misconduct
NJ 4·NSH 2
3rd·19:42
Nick Bjugstad Wrist Shot saved by Justus Annunen
·
NJ 4·NSH 2
3rd·19:27
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
NJ 4·NSH 2
3rd·19:27
Steven Stamkos Misconduct
NJ 4·NSH 2
3rd·19:27
Timo Meier Goal (21) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Brown (22), Jonas Siegenthaler (11)
· ·
NJ 4·NSH 2
3rd·19:24
Timo Meier shot blocked by Luke Evangelista
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·19:10
Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Jesper Bratt
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·19:04
Steven Stamkos Tip-In saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·18:15
Matthew Wood Wrist Shot Hit Left Post
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·18:08
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·18:08
Icing
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·18:05
Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Right
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·18:00
Roman Josi shot blocked by Cody Glass
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·17:51
Ryan O'Reilly Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·17:45
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Cody Glass
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·17:45
Icing
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·16:45
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·16:45
TV Timeout
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·16:45
Goalie Stopped
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·16:42
Nick Perbix Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·16:10
Jack Hughes Slap Shot saved by Justus Annunen
· ·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·16:02
Jack Hughes Slap Shot Wide Right
· ·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·15:55
Timo Meier hit Nicolas Hague
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·15:51
Takeaway by Steven Stamkos
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·15:23
Dawson Mercer Backhand Wide Left
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·15:19
Giveaway by Adam Wilsby
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·14:48
Nico Hischier Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NJ 3·NSH 2
3rd·14:41
Jonathan Marchessault Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
NJ 3·NSH 2

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·NJ -108/NSH -112

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ew Jersey Devils went into Nashville Predators and beat them, 4–2.

NJ +1.5 cashed (NSH lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.1%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
57.1%
P(NSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.1%
P(NSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.1%
P(NSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-112

Close price

-112

Open no-vig

50.4%

Close no-vig

50.4%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at NSH?: The model favors NSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsNashville Predators

Elsewhere in the NHL