Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at CGY?

The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1ANA

ANA

41-27-4

CGY

30-34-8

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesANA leads series 3-0VegasANA -135

ANA · top performer

Mikael Granlund

C · #64

3Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Blake Coleman

LW · #20

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CarlssonC · #91	0	1	-1	1	0	0	0	20:05
C. GauthierLW · #61	0	1	0	5	2	0	0	22:03
M. GranlundC · #64	3	0	1	6	1	1	0	19:31
A. KillornLW · #17	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	17:48
C. KreiderLW · #20	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	18:19
M. McTavishC · #23	0	0	-1	1	4	0	0	15:05
R. PoehlingC · #25	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:54
B. SenneckeRW · #45	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:47
F. VatranoRW · #77	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	13:38
J. VielLW · #28	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	14:46
T. WasheC · #42	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	12:51

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	2	0	3	1	0	0	26:55
R. GudasD · #7	0	0	0	1	1	5	0	8:33
J. LaCombeD · #2	0	0	-1	3	0	2	0	25:58
P. MintyukovD · #98	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	17:44
I. MooreD · #3	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	11:00
J. TroubaD · #65	0	0	-1	3	0	1	0	23:31
O. ZellwegerD · #51	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:25

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. HussoG · #33	25	2	23	.920	64:59

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:54
J. BeecherC · #18	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	10:50
B. ColemanLW · #20	1	0	1	3	1	0	2	18:30
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	0	3	0	0	0	15:38
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:16
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	16:52
M. GridinRW · #92	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:26
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	0	1	4	0	2	9:59
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	0	4	0	2	0	15:53
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	8:52
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	17:19
R. StromeC · #22	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	26:06
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	1	1	0	0	2	17:46
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	0	0	2	4	0	15:28
O. MaattaD · #3	0	2	2	0	1	0	0	22:20
Z. ParekhD · #19	0	0	1	1	0	4	0	17:06
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	-1	1	1	7	0	25:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CooleyG · #1	33	3	30	.909	64:59

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

40.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

ANA leads series 3-0

Jan 26

ANA4@

CGY3

Mar 2

CGY2@

ANA3

Mar 27

ANA3@

CGY2today

Apr 5

CGY5@

ANA3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANA-13557%

CGY+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 61 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat CGY 3-2. M. Granlund led the way — 3 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
ANA	0	1	1	1	3
CGY	0	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

ANA won 1 · CGY won 0

ANA

CGY

Play-by-play · 352 plays

period

event

player

OT·4:59
Game End
ANA 3·CGY 2
OT·4:59
End of OT
ANA 3·CGY 2
OT·4:59
Mikael Granlund Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (42), Cutter Gauthier (27)
· ·
ANA 3·CGY 2
OT·4:50
Cutter Gauthier shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:19
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mikael Granlund
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:19
Puck in Benches
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:16
Mikael Granlund Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:03
Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:03
Timeout - Visitor
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·4:03
Too many men/ice served by Zayne Parekh
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:49
Tim Washe hit Mikael Backlund
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:45
Matt Coronato Wrist Shot High and Wide Right
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:32
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Tim Washe
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:32
Puck in Netting
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:31
Cutter Gauthier shot blocked by Kevin Bahl
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:17
Leo Carlsson Deflected Wide Left
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·3:02
Joel Farabee shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·1:46
Ryan Poehling Tip-In High and Wide Left
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·1:21
Takeaway by Victor Olofsson
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·1:12
Mikael Granlund hit Yegor Sharangovich
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·1:04
Takeaway by Victor Olofsson
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·0:44
Zayne Parekh Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·0:00
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Cutter Gauthier
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
ANA 2·CGY 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
ANA 2·CGY 2
3rd·19:51
Giveaway by Matvei Gridin
ANA 2·CGY 2
3rd·19:03
Tim Washe Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
3rd·19:00
Tim Washe Tip-In saved by Devin Cooley
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
3rd·18:56
Jackson LaCombe Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
ANA 2·CGY 2
3rd·18:53
Tim Washe faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
ANA 2·CGY 2

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA -135/CGY +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

CGY +1.5 cashed (ANA won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

49.4%

ensemble · ANA favored

Elo Static
49.4%
P(CGY win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
49.4%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
49.4%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in ANA at CGY?: The model favors CGY, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Anaheim DucksCalgary Flames

Elsewhere in the NHL