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FINAL+1ANA
ANA

ANA

41-27-4

32
CGY

CGY

30-34-8

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesANA leads series 3-0VegasANA -135

Recap · NHL

naheim Ducks went into Calgary Flames and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

CGY +1.5 cashed (ANA won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

ANA · top performer

ANA
Mikael Granlund

Mikael Granlund

C · #64

3Points

3

G

0

A

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

CGY
Blake Coleman

Blake Coleman

LW · #20

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
2
ANA41-27-4CGY30-34-8
ANA

ANA

41-27-4

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CGY

CGY

30-34-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

10

Season series

ANA leads series 3-0

Jan 26ANAANA4@CGYCGY3
Mar 2CGYCGY2@ANAANA3
Mar 27ANAANA3@CGYCGY2today
Apr 5CGYCGY5@ANAANA3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

ANA -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

ANAANA-13557%
CGYCGY+11447%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗SpreadBet ANA -1.5↗

Line movement · 11 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

ANA beat CGY 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
ANA01113
CGY01102

Period scoring

ANA won 1 · CGY won 0

0
0

1

1
1

2

1
1

3

1
0

OT

ANA
CGY

Play-by-play · 352 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·4:59

    Game End

    ANA 3·CGY 2

  2. OT·4:59

    End of OT

    ANA 3·CGY 2

  3. OT·4:59

    Mikael Granlund Goal (19) Slap Shot, assists: John Carlson (42), Cutter Gauthier (27)

    · ·

    ANA 3·CGY 2

  4. OT·4:50

    Cutter Gauthier shot blocked by Zach Whitecloud

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  5. OT·4:19

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Mikael Granlund

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  6. OT·4:19

    Puck in Benches

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  7. OT·4:16

    Mikael Granlund Wrist Shot saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  8. OT·4:03

    Cutter Gauthier faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  9. OT·4:03

    Timeout - Visitor

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  10. OT·4:03

    Too many men/ice served by Zayne Parekh

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  11. OT·3:49

    Tim Washe hit Mikael Backlund

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  12. OT·3:45

    Matt Coronato Wrist Shot High and Wide Right

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  13. OT·3:32

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Tim Washe

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  14. OT·3:32

    Puck in Netting

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  15. OT·3:31

    Cutter Gauthier shot blocked by Kevin Bahl

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  16. OT·3:17

    Leo Carlsson Deflected Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  17. OT·3:02

    Joel Farabee shot blocked by Jackson LaCombe

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  18. OT·1:46

    Ryan Poehling Tip-In High and Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  19. OT·1:21

    Takeaway by Victor Olofsson

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  20. OT·1:12

    Mikael Granlund hit Yegor Sharangovich

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  21. OT·1:04

    Takeaway by Victor Olofsson

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  22. OT·0:44

    Zayne Parekh Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  23. OT·0:00

    Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Cutter Gauthier

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  24. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  25. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  26. 3rd·19:51

    Giveaway by Matvei Gridin

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  27. 3rd·19:03

    Tim Washe Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  28. 3rd·19:00

    Tim Washe Tip-In saved by Devin Cooley

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  29. 3rd·18:56

    Jackson LaCombe Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

  30. 3rd·18:53

    Tim Washe faceoff won against Mikael Backlund

    ·

    ANA 2·CGY 2

Team stats

ANA

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

33

Shots

25

40.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

10

33

Faceoffs W

31

14

Blocks

21

16

Giveaways

24

6

Takeaways

7

Betting line

ANA -1.5·O/U 6.5·ANA -135/CGY +114

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 29 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Beckett SenneckeANA · RW
    SHOT MPH96.199+
  • Ryan PoehlingANA · C
    SKATE MPH23.498
  • Leo CarlssonANA · C
    BURSTS4996
  • Mikael BacklundCGY · C
    SHOT MPH93.594

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CGY win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+114

Close price

+114

Open no-vig

44.9%

Close no-vig

44.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR