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FINAL+1EDM
EDM

EDM

36-28-9

43
VGK

VGK

32-26-15

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesEDM leads series 3-0VegasVGK -142

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

EDM +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Connor McDavid

Connor McDavid

C · #97

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

VGK
Ivan Barbashev

Ivan Barbashev

LW · #49

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
4
3
EDM36-28-9VGK32-26-15
EDM

EDM

36-28-9

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
VGK

VGK

32-26-15

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

15

PIM

13

Season series

EDM leads series 3-0

Dec 22VGKVGK3@EDMEDM4
Mar 9EDMEDM4@VGKVGK2
Mar 27EDMEDM4@VGKVGK3today
Apr 5VGKVGK5@EDMEDM1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM+12045%
VGKVGK-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat VGK 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
EDM12014
VGK02103

Period scoring

EDM won 2 · VGK won 1

1
0

1

2
2

2

0
1

3

1
0

OT

EDM
VGK

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·3:10

    Game End

    EDM 4·VGK 3

  2. OT·3:10

    End of OT

    EDM 4·VGK 3

  3. OT·3:10

    Evan Bouchard Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (80)

    ·

    EDM 4·VGK 3

  4. OT·3:07

    Connor McDavid faceoff won against Brett Howden

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  5. OT·3:07

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  6. OT·3:05

    Darnell Nurse Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  7. OT·2:47

    Tomas Hertl Deflected saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  8. OT·2:25

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  9. OT·2:11

    Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  10. OT·2:03

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  11. OT·1:35

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  12. OT·1:09

    Jack Eichel Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  13. OT·1:02

    Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  14. OT·1:02

    Zach Hyman Holding against Mark Stone

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  15. OT·0:00

    Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Jack Eichel

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  16. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  17. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  18. 3rd·19:35

    Colton Sissons faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  19. 3rd·19:35

    Puck in Netting

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  20. 3rd·19:34

    Jason Dickinson shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  21. 3rd·18:54

    Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  22. 3rd·18:46

    Jack Eichel faceoff won against Matt Savoie

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  23. 3rd·18:46

    Puck in Netting

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  24. 3rd·18:44

    Jack Roslovic shot blocked by Brayden McNabb

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  25. 3rd·18:25

    Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Brett Howden

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  26. 3rd·18:03

    Ivan Barbashev hit Mattias Ekholm

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  27. 3rd·17:55

    Takeaway by Shea Theodore

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  28. 3rd·17:22

    Giveaway by Jack Eichel

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  29. 3rd·16:55

    Tomas Hertl hit Connor Murphy

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

  30. 3rd·16:50

    Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram

    ·

    EDM 3·VGK 3

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

29

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

0.0

15

PIM

13

30

Faceoffs W

28

14

Blocks

20

13

Giveaways

15

5

Takeaways

8

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +120/VGK -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Jack EichelVGK · C
    DIST MI58.999+
  • Shea TheodoreVGK · D
    SKATE MPH23.399
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Mitch MarnerVGK · RW
    DIST MI53.598
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · VGK favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(VGK win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR