Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at VGK?

The model favors EDM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1EDM

EDM

36-28-9

VGK

32-26-15

NHLThu, Mar 26FinalSeriesEDM leads series 3-0VegasVGK -142

EDM · top performer

Connor McDavid

C · #97

3Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Mark Stone

RW · #61

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DickinsonC · #16	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	15:48
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:20
Z. HymanLW · #18	1	0	1	2	2	0	4	19:10
R. JarventieLW · #15	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6:39
M. JonesLW · #46	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	7:41
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	15:35
C. McDavidC · #97	1	2	1	2	0	0	0	22:12
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	19:48
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	1	-2	1	2	1	0	18:33
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:34
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	13:28
M. SavoieC · #22	1	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	1	1	2	2	0	0	2	23:31
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	18:50
T. EmbersonD · #49	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	14:14
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	-1	1	1	3	5	23:24
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	0	1	2	5	2	25:20
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	1	3	0	2	0	17:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. IngramG · #39	29	3	26	.897	63:10

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	1	2	3	5	1	0	17:16
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	19:10
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	8:14
J. EichelC · #9	0	1	1	4	0	2	0	26:24
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	-1	4	3	0	0	18:44
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	-3	1	0	2	2	12:07
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	8:47
M. MarnerRW · #93	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	22:17
C. SissonsC · #10	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	13:31
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	13:42
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	0	0	1	0	5	9:33
M. StoneRW · #61	2	0	1	4	0	1	0	23:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	25:08
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	-1	3	2	2	0	22:57
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	8:21
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	0	0	2	2	2	15:43
B. McNabbD · #3	0	0	1	3	2	2	0	19:46
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	0	1	0	2	2	23:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	29	4	25	.862	62:20

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

EDM leads series 3-0

Dec 22

VGK3@

EDM4

Mar 9

EDM4@

VGK2

Mar 27

EDM4@

VGK3today

Apr 5

VGK5@

EDM1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM+12045%

VGK-14259%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 21 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

EDM beat VGK 4-3. C. McDavid led the way — 1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
EDM	1	2	0	1	4
VGK	0	2	1	0	3

Period scoring

EDM won 2 · VGK won 1

EDM

VGK

Play-by-play · 312 plays

period

event

player

OT·3:10
Game End
EDM 4·VGK 3
OT·3:10
End of OT
EDM 4·VGK 3
OT·3:10
Evan Bouchard Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (80)
·
EDM 4·VGK 3
OT·3:07
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Brett Howden
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·3:07
Goalie Stopped
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·3:05
Darnell Nurse Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·2:47
Tomas Hertl Deflected saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·2:25
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·2:11
Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·2:03
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·1:35
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·1:09
Jack Eichel Slap Shot Wide Right
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·1:02
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·1:02
Zach Hyman Holding against Mark Stone
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·0:00
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·19:35
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·19:35
Puck in Netting
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·19:34
Jason Dickinson shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·18:54
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·18:46
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Matt Savoie
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·18:46
Puck in Netting
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·18:44
Jack Roslovic shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·18:25
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Brett Howden
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·18:03
Ivan Barbashev hit Mattias Ekholm
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·17:55
Takeaway by Shea Theodore
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·17:22
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·16:55
Tomas Hertl hit Connor Murphy
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
3rd·16:50
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +120/VGK -142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

dmonton Oilers went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.

EDM +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

54.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
54.6%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
54.6%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
54.6%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+120

Close price

+120

Open no-vig

43.7%

Close no-vig

43.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at VGK?: The model favors EDM, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL