
EDM
36-28-9

VGK
32-26-15
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
dmonton Oilers went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 4–3 in overtime.
EDM +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
EDM · top performer

Connor McDavid
C · #97
1
G
2
A
—
SOG
VGK · top performer

Ivan Barbashev
LW · #49
1
G
1
A
—
SOG
NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Vegas Golden Knights · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


EDM
36-28-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
VGK
32-26-15
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
15
PIM
13
Season series
EDM leads series 3-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
VGK -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 8 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
EDM beat VGK 4-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| VGK | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Period scoring
EDM won 2 · VGK won 1
1
2
3
OT
Play-by-play · 312 plays
- OT·3:10
Game End
EDM 4·VGK 3
- OT·3:10
End of OT
EDM 4·VGK 3
- OT·3:10
Evan Bouchard Goal (20) Snap Shot, assists: Connor McDavid (80)
·
EDM 4·VGK 3
- OT·3:07
Connor McDavid faceoff won against Brett Howden
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·3:07
Goalie Stopped
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·3:05
Darnell Nurse Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·2:47
Tomas Hertl Deflected saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·2:25
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·2:11
Mitch Marner Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·2:03
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·1:35
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·1:09
Jack Eichel Slap Shot Wide Right
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·1:02
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·1:02
Zach Hyman Holding against Mark Stone
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·0:00
Jason Dickinson faceoff won against Jack Eichel
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·19:35
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·19:35
Puck in Netting
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·19:34
Jason Dickinson shot blocked by Rasmus Andersson
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·18:54
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·18:46
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Matt Savoie
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·18:46
Puck in Netting
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·18:44
Jack Roslovic shot blocked by Brayden McNabb
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·18:25
Evan Bouchard shot blocked by Brett Howden
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·18:03
Ivan Barbashev hit Mattias Ekholm
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·17:55
Takeaway by Shea Theodore
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·17:22
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·16:55
Tomas Hertl hit Connor Murphy
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
- 3rd·16:50
Noah Hanifin Wrist Shot saved by Connor Ingram
·
EDM 3·VGK 3
Team stats
EDM
Away
Stat
VGK
Home
29
Shots
29
0.0
PCT
0.0
15
PIM
13
30
Faceoffs W
28
14
Blocks
20
13
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
8
Betting line
VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +120/VGK -142
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
Jack EichelVGK · CDIST MI58.999+
Shea TheodoreVGK · DSKATE MPH23.399
Jake WalmanEDM · DSHOT MPH99.599
Mitch MarnerVGK · RWDIST MI53.598
Connor McDavidEDM · CBURSTS5498
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · VGK favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VGK win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VGK win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(VGK win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+120
Close price
+120
Open no-vig
43.7%
Close no-vig
43.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit