Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at NYM?

The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Aug 1, 2026

FINAL+4MIA

MIA

57-55

NYM

47-65

Citi Field · Queens, New York

30,078 attended

Line movement

200 snapshots

NYM spread

-1.5

open PK · -1.5

Total

O/U 9.0

open O/U 9.0

NYM no-vig %

54.2%

open 54.1% · +0.1

Stepped lines reflect captured market snapshots from odds_snapshots. Spread sign convention: negative = NYM favored. Live mode caps the in-game branch to the last 60 minutes.

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

43.1%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
45.8%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Elo Pitching
46.6%
P(NYM win)
33%
weight
Bullpen Park
44.8%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.74 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

95% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

3 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

-0.12

CLV pp

Open price

+108

Close price

+109

Open no-vig

45.9%

Close no-vig

45.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MIA at NYM?: The model favors MIA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Line shopping · 1 book

Where to bet this game.

Same model, different prices. The same moneyline can vary 25¢ across books — taking the worst price wipes out a real edge instantly. Star marks the best-paying book per side.

+7.8pp

best edge · MIA · DraftKings

MIA

★ best

-109DraftKings

edge +7.8pp · implied 49.0%

NYM

no live price

Book	MIA	NYM	Best edge
DraftKings	-109★	-119	+7.8

Edges shown are model probability minus no-vig implied probability for that side at that book. Stars mark the highest-paying cell per side. Lines refresh every 60 seconds.

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

119

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
7.0± 1.7high
Eury PerezMIA
5.9± 3.2medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.9± 1.6medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.1± 1.0high
Kyle StowersMIA
1.0± 0.7high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.0± 0.7high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.2± 2.3high
Francisco LindorNYM
2.0± 3.5high
Joe MackMIA
1.9± 2.0high

RBIs

Joe MackMIA
0.7± 0.9high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.1high
Francisco LindorNYM
0.7± 1.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
3.2± 2.9low
Janson JunkMIA
2.8± 3.5medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
2.3± 1.9high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

NYM

.732

OPS

◀

.720

.684

.325

OBP

◀

.318

.303

4.35

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

3.99

Team ERA

◀

4.18

4.10

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.30

1.29

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 6 · NYM 2 (by 4)

Model verdict

✓ Hit

Picked MIA +4pp

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	1	2	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	6
NYM	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. LopezSS	.322	4	2	1	1	0	0	1
H. HernandezLF	.232	4	0	0	0	0	1	1
L. HicksC	.283	3	0	2	2	0	2	0
X. Edwards2B	.288	5	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.205	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Stowers1B	.237	4	1	1	0	0	1	1
J. Sanoja3B	.267	5	1	2	2	1	0	0
E. RuizRF	.264	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
G. ConineRF	.279	3	1	2	1	1	1	0
J. MarseeCF	.197	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	6	10	6	2	5	6

Player

.322

.232

.283

.288

.205

.237

.267

.264

.279

.197

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. PhillipsRP	5.0	6	2	2	0	3	65
J. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
L. BacharRP	3.0	1	0	0	0	2	35
Team	9.0	7	2	2	0	5	106

Player

T. PhillipsRP

5.0

J. KingRP

1.0

L. BacharRP

3.0

Team

9.0

106

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A.J. EwingCF	.268	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. LindorSS	.238	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
B. Bichette3B	.256	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. BengeRF	.266	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Young1B	.247	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Semien2B	.211	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
B. Baty3B	.218	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. TaylorLF	.241	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
L. TorrensC	.216	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	7	2	1	0	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. ThorntonSP	4.2	6	4	3	3	2	94
D. DuarteRP	1.1	3	2	2	0	1	29
J. PintaroRP	2.0	1	0	0	2	3	43
K. HergetRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
Team	9.0	10	6	5	5	6	177

Team

MIA

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

Closing-line value.

Where to bet this game.

NYM vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Where to bet this game.

Closing-line value.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs MIA.

3 sub-models, blended.