Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at DAL?

The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5DAL

EDM

32-26-8

DAL

41-14-10

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesDAL wins series 3-0VegasDAL -130

EDM · top performer

Evan Bouchard

D · #2

1Points

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

Jason Robertson

LW · #21

4Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DickinsonC · #16	1	0	0	1	5	0	6	13:16
L. DraisaitlC · #29	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	17:36
T. FredericC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	11:49
A. HenriqueC · #19	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	11:17
Z. HymanLW · #18	0	0	-3	6	0	0	0	17:57
K. KapanenRW · #42	0	1	-1	3	2	0	0	14:50
C. McDavidC · #97	0	0	-3	1	3	0	4	17:45
R. Nugent-HopkinsC · #93	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	17:32
V. PodkolzinRW · #92	0	0	1	3	6	0	0	14:44
J. RoslovicC · #28	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	14:47
J. SamanskiC · #81	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	11:53
M. SavoieC · #22	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	14:21

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. BouchardD · #2	1	0	-2	6	0	1	0	21:51
M. EkholmD · #14	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	17:51
C. MurphyD · #5	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	20:18
D. NurseD · #25	0	0	-1	1	3	1	6	18:45
S. StastneyD · #24	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	17:50
J. WalmanD · #96	0	0	-2	3	0	2	0	18:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. JarryG · #35	27	7	20	.741	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	2	1	0	2	11:37
J. BennLW · #14	2	0	0	2	4	0	0	14:37
C. BlackwellC · #15	0	1	1	2	2	0	2	11:01
M. BourqueC · #22	0	1	2	2	1	0	4	16:16
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	16:14
M. DucheneC · #95	1	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:46
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:15
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	-1	2	1	1	4	13:47
A. HyryRW · #25	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	10:49
W. JohnstonC · #53	1	2	2	2	1	0	4	18:18
J. RobertsonLW · #21	2	2	2	3	0	0	0	17:17
S. SteelC · #18	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	16:49

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. BichselD · #6	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	16:00
T. HarleyD · #55	0	0	-1	3	0	2	2	21:08
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	23:00
E. LindellD · #23	0	1	4	1	0	0	2	21:14
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	18:08
T. MyersD · #57	0	0	1	2	0	2	0	17:06

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. OettingerG · #29	32	2	30	.938	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL wins series 3-0

Nov 5

EDM3@

DAL4

Nov 26

DAL8@

EDM3

Mar 13

EDM2@

DAL7today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDM+11048%

DAL-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 39 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat EDM 7-2. J. Robertson led the way — 2 G · 2 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
EDM	0	2	0	2
DAL	3	2	2	7

Period scoring

EDM won 0 · DAL won 2

EDM

DAL

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
EDM 2·DAL 7
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
EDM 2·DAL 7
3rd·19:30
Jamie Benn hit Connor Murphy
·
EDM 2·DAL 7
3rd·19:18
Vasily Podkolzin shot blocked by Tyler Myers
·
EDM 2·DAL 7
3rd·18:57
Jack Roslovic faceoff won against Jamie Benn
·
EDM 2·DAL 7
3rd·18:57
Matt Duchene Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Colin Blackwell (8), Esa Lindell (21)
· ·
EDM 2·DAL 7
3rd·18:43
Kasperi Kapanen hit Nils Lundkvist
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·18:38
Kasperi Kapanen Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·18:33
Takeaway by Nils Lundkvist
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·18:22
Matt Savoie faceoff won against Matt Duchene
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·18:22
Trent Frederic Roughing against Lian Bichsel
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·18:22
Lian Bichsel Unsportsmanlike conduct against Trent Frederic
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·18:03
Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·18:03
Goalie Stopped
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·18:02
Jake Walman Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·18:00
Josh Samanski faceoff won against Arttu Hyry
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·18:00
Puck in Benches
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:39
Sam Steel faceoff won against Josh Samanski
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:39
Jason Dickinson Roughing against Wyatt Johnston
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:39
Jason Dickinson Roughing against Wyatt Johnston
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:39
Darnell Nurse Roughing against Tyler Myers
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:39
Darnell Nurse Roughing against Tyler Myers
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:39
Mavrik Bourque Roughing against Jack Roslovic
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:39
Mavrik Bourque Roughing against Jack Roslovic
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:39
Wyatt Johnston Roughing against Jason Dickinson
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:39
Wyatt Johnston Roughing against Jason Dickinson
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:39
Goalie Stopped
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:37
Jake Walman Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger
·
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:20
Giveaway by Mavrik Bourque
EDM 2·DAL 6
3rd·17:14
Mavrik Bourque Snap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry
·
EDM 2·DAL 6

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +110/DAL -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Edmonton Oilers, 7–2.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

64.6%

ensemble · DAL favored

Elo Static
64.6%
P(DAL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
64.6%
P(DAL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
64.6%
P(DAL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in EDM at DAL?: The model favors DAL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Edmonton OilersDallas Stars

Elsewhere in the NHL