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FINAL+5DAL
EDM

EDM

32-26-8

27
DAL

DAL

41-14-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesDAL wins series 3-0VegasDAL -130

Recap · NHL

allas Stars held off Edmonton Oilers, 7–2.

DAL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

EDM · top performer

EDM
Jason Dickinson

Jason Dickinson

C · #16

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

DAL · top performer

DAL
Jason Robertson

Jason Robertson

LW · #21

4Points

2

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
2
7
EDM32-26-8DAL41-14-10
EDM

EDM

32-26-8

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DAL

DAL

41-14-10

7
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

24

PIM

22

Season series

DAL wins series 3-0

Nov 5EDMEDM3@DALDAL4
Nov 26DALDAL8@EDMEDM3
Mar 13EDMEDM2@DALDAL7today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

EDMEDM+11048%
DALDAL-13057%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗SpreadBet DAL -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat EDM 7-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
EDM0202
DAL3227

Period scoring

EDM won 0 · DAL won 2

0
3

1

2
2

2

0
2

3

EDM
DAL

Play-by-play · 301 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    EDM 2·DAL 7

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    EDM 2·DAL 7

  3. 3rd·19:30

    Jamie Benn hit Connor Murphy

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 7

  4. 3rd·19:18

    Vasily Podkolzin shot blocked by Tyler Myers

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 7

  5. 3rd·18:57

    Jack Roslovic faceoff won against Jamie Benn

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 7

  6. 3rd·18:57

    Matt Duchene Goal (13) Backhand, assists: Colin Blackwell (8), Esa Lindell (21)

    · ·

    EDM 2·DAL 7

  7. 3rd·18:43

    Kasperi Kapanen hit Nils Lundkvist

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  8. 3rd·18:38

    Kasperi Kapanen Snap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  9. 3rd·18:33

    Takeaway by Nils Lundkvist

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  10. 3rd·18:22

    Matt Savoie faceoff won against Matt Duchene

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  11. 3rd·18:22

    Trent Frederic Roughing against Lian Bichsel

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  12. 3rd·18:22

    Lian Bichsel Unsportsmanlike conduct against Trent Frederic

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  13. 3rd·18:03

    Arttu Hyry faceoff won against Josh Samanski

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  14. 3rd·18:03

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  15. 3rd·18:02

    Jake Walman Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  16. 3rd·18:00

    Josh Samanski faceoff won against Arttu Hyry

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  17. 3rd·18:00

    Puck in Benches

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  18. 3rd·17:39

    Sam Steel faceoff won against Josh Samanski

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  19. 3rd·17:39

    Jason Dickinson Roughing against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  20. 3rd·17:39

    Jason Dickinson Roughing against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  21. 3rd·17:39

    Darnell Nurse Roughing against Tyler Myers

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  22. 3rd·17:39

    Darnell Nurse Roughing against Tyler Myers

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  23. 3rd·17:39

    Mavrik Bourque Roughing against Jack Roslovic

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  24. 3rd·17:39

    Mavrik Bourque Roughing against Jack Roslovic

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  25. 3rd·17:39

    Wyatt Johnston Roughing against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  26. 3rd·17:39

    Wyatt Johnston Roughing against Jason Dickinson

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  27. 3rd·17:39

    Goalie Stopped

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  28. 3rd·17:37

    Jake Walman Slap Shot saved by Jake Oettinger

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  29. 3rd·17:20

    Giveaway by Mavrik Bourque

    EDM 2·DAL 6

  30. 3rd·17:14

    Mavrik Bourque Snap Shot saved by Tristan Jarry

    ·

    EDM 2·DAL 6

Team stats

EDM

Away

Stat

DAL

Home

32

Shots

27

0.0

PCT

50.0

24

PIM

22

27

Faceoffs W

26

7

Blocks

7

25

Giveaways

14

3

Takeaways

7

Betting line

DAL -1.5·O/U 6.5·EDM +110/DAL -130

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Jake WalmanEDM · D
    SHOT MPH99.599
  • Connor McDavidEDM · C
    BURSTS5498
  • Evan BouchardEDM · D
    SHOT MPH97.395
  • Darnell NurseEDM · D
    BURSTS1389
  • Spencer StastneyEDM · D
    BURSTS6788

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · DAL favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DAL win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-130

Close price

-130

Open no-vig

54.3%

Close no-vig

54.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR