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FINAL+1PHI
PHI

PHI

31-23-11

32
MIN

MIN

38-16-12

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesPHI wins series 2-0VegasMIN -225

Recap · NHL

hiladelphia Flyers went into Minnesota Wild and beat them, 3–2.

PHI +1.5 cashed (MIN lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHI · top performer

PHI
Carl Grundstrom

Carl Grundstrom

RW · #91

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

MIN · top performer

MIN
Matt Boldy

Matt Boldy

LW · #12

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Philadelphia Flyers at Minnesota Wild · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO
3
2
PHI31-23-11MIN38-16-12
PHI

PHI

31-23-11

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
MIN

MIN

38-16-12

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

8

Season series

PHI wins series 2-0

Oct 18MINMIN1@PHIPHI2
Mar 13PHIPHI3@MINMIN2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PHIPHI+18535%
MINMIN-22569%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗SpreadBet MIN -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PHI beat MIN 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTSOT
PHI101013
MIN020002

Period scoring

PHI won 3 · MIN won 1

1
0

1

0
2

2

1
0

3

0
0

OT

1
0

SO

PHI
MIN

Play-by-play · 315 plays

period
event
player
  1. SO·0:00

    Game End

    PHI 1·MIN 0

  2. SO·0:00

    End of OT

    PHI 1·MIN 0

  3. SO·0:00

    End of Shootout

    PHI 1·MIN 0

  4. SO·0:00

    Travis Konecny Goal Snap Shot

    PHI 1·MIN 0

  5. SO·0:00

    Matt Boldy Backhand saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 1·MIN 0

  6. SO·0:00

    Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    PHI 1·MIN 0

  7. SO·0:00

    Kirill Kaprizov Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 1·MIN 0

  8. SO·0:00

    Matvei Michkov Backhand saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    PHI 1·MIN 0

  9. SO·0:00

    Mats Zuccarello Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 1·MIN 0

  10. SO·0:00

    Start of Shootout

    PHI 1·MIN 0

  11. OT·5:00

    End of OT

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  12. OT·4:59

    Matt Boldy Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  13. OT·4:35

    Giveaway by Quinn Hughes

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  14. OT·3:36

    Ryan Hartman faceoff won against Noah Cates

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  15. OT·3:36

    Puck in Netting

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  16. OT·3:34

    Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Jared Spurgeon

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  17. OT·2:59

    Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Jonas Brodin

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  18. OT·2:30

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Sean Couturier

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  19. OT·2:30

    Goalie Stopped

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  20. OT·2:27

    Noah Cates Tip-In saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  21. OT·2:12

    Matvei Michkov Snap Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  22. OT·2:07

    Travis Konecny Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  23. OT·1:42

    Travis Konecny Wrist Shot Wide Right

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  24. OT·1:35

    Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Michael McCarron

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  25. OT·1:35

    Quinn Hughes Holding against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  26. OT·1:31

    Takeaway by Trevor Zegras

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  27. OT·1:14

    Owen Tippett shot blocked by Joel Eriksson Ek

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  28. OT·1:04

    Trevor Zegras Wrist Shot saved by Jesper Wallstedt

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  29. OT·0:44

    Trevor Zegras shot blocked by Jake Middleton

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

  30. OT·0:00

    Joel Eriksson Ek faceoff won against Trevor Zegras

    ·

    PHI 2·MIN 2

Team stats

PHI

Away

Stat

MIN

Home

27

Shots

23

0.0

PCT

33.3

6

PIM

8

21

Faceoffs W

28

10

Blocks

11

19

Giveaways

16

8

Takeaways

3

Betting line

MIN -1.5·O/U 5.5·PHI +185/MIN -225

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 28 skaters with EDGE
  • Brock FaberMIN · D
    BURSTS2799+
  • Jamie DrysdalePHI · D
    SKATE MPH23.098
  • Matt BoldyMIN · LW
    SHOT MPH92.897
  • Marcus JohanssonMIN · LW
    SKATE MPH23.296
  • Travis SanheimPHI · D
    SKATE MPH22.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · MIN favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(MIN win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR