Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at SEA?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4COL

COL

44-11-9

SEA

29-26-9

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesCOL leads series 2-0VegasCOL -205

COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

4Points

—

SOG

SEA · top performer

Ryker Evans

D · #41

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	8:04
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	9:20
J. DruryC · #18	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	15:36
N. KadriC · #91	1	0	3	2	1	1	0	19:26
P. KellyC · #17	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	13:11
J. KivirantaLW · #94	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	14:20
N. MacKinnonC · #29	1	3	3	4	0	0	0	20:58
M. NecasC · #88	1	1	3	1	1	1	0	22:32
B. NelsonC · #11	0	1	0	4	0	1	0	19:18
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	18:19
N. RoyC · #10	1	0	-1	2	1	1	0	16:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BlankenburgD · #37	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	9:31
B. BurnsD · #84	0	0	0	1	0	2	2	14:45
B. KulakD · #27	0	0	2	1	1	1	0	18:05
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	1	2	1	2	0	21:01
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	1	2	2	2	2	0	19:09
J. MansonD · #42	0	1	1	2	1	3	0	15:48
D. ToewsD · #7	0	2	0	1	1	0	2	19:41

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. WedgewoodG · #41	29	1	28	.966	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	17:19
B. CattonC · #27	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:21
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	-2	3	0	1	4	17:39
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	15:58
K. KakkoRW · #84	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:44
J. McCannLW · #19	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	15:49
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	9:31
B. MeyersC · #59	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	13:12
C. StephensonC · #9	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	17:27
E. TolvanenRW · #20	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:00
R. WintertonC · #26	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:53
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	14:28

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	19:19
R. EvansD · #41	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:30
A. LarssonD · #6	0	0	-2	2	1	0	2	21:14
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	0	2	2	3	0	20:26
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	21:31
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	-2	1	1	2	0	17:19

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	15	3	12	.800	20:00
P. GrubauerG · #31	11	2	9	.818	39:43

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

SEA

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL leads series 2-0

Dec 17

COL5@

SEA3

Mar 13

COL5@

SEA1today

Apr 17

SEA0@

COL2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-20567%

SEA+17037%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat SEA 5-1. N. MacKinnon led the way — 1 G · 3 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	3	1	1	5
SEA	0	1	0	1

Period scoring

COL won 2 · SEA won 0

COL

SEA

Play-by-play · 311 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·19:46
Shane Wright Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·19:23
Giveaway by Nick Blankenburg
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·19:18
Nathan MacKinnon faceoff won against Shane Wright
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·19:18
Icing
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·18:48
Nazem Kadri Wrist Shot Above Crossbar
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·18:18
Jacob Melanson Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·17:08
Shane Wright faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·17:08
Goalie Stopped
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·17:04
Nathan MacKinnon Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·17:03
Takeaway by Nathan MacKinnon
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·16:46
Sam Malinski hit Jared McCann
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·16:39
Giveaway by Nathan MacKinnon
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·16:28
Giveaway by Vince Dunn
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·16:14
Giveaway by Matty Beniers
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·15:46
Eeli Tolvanen Tip-In saved by Scott Wedgewood
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·15:06
Jacob Melanson hit Josh Manson
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·14:55
Devon Toews hit Ryan Winterton
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·14:50
Jacob Melanson hit Zakhar Bardakov
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·14:35
Ben Meyers hit Nick Blankenburg
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·14:24
Ben Meyers faceoff won against Nicolas Roy
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·14:24
Goalie Stopped
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·14:22
Devon Toews Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·14:16
Brock Nelson shot blocked by Ryan Lindgren
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·14:09
Takeaway by Nathan MacKinnon
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·14:02
Giveaway by Brandon Montour
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·13:55
Giveaway by Devon Toews
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·13:19
Sam Malinski Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
COL 5·SEA 1
3rd·13:02
Sam Malinski Wrist Shot saved by Philipp Grubauer
·
COL 5·SEA 1

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -205/SEA +170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Seattle Kraken and beat them, 5–1.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

18.2%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
44.0%
P(SEA win)
46%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
44.0%
P(SEA win)
10%
weight
Xg Blend
43.4%
P(SEA win)
44%
weight

Disagreement

0.30 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

98% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

2 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+170

Close price

+170

Open no-vig

35.5%

Close no-vig

35.5%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at SEA?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Player projections

SEA vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

135

projections · 117 high confidence

Shots on goal

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
4.1± 2.3high
Nazem KadriCOL
3.1± 2.3high
Bobby McMannSEA
3.0± 1.8high

Goals

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
0.7± 0.7high
Mackie SamoskevichSEA
0.4± 0.5high
Gabriel LandeskogCOL
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Nathan MacKinnonCOL
1.5± 1.2high
Martin NecasCOL
1.2± 1.0high
Gabriel LandeskogCOL
0.8± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheSeattle Kraken

Elsewhere in the NHL