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FINAL+3TB
DET

DET

36-23-7

14
TB

TB

40-20-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesTB leads series 2-1VegasTB -218

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Detroit Red Wings, 4–1.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DET · top performer

DET
J.T. Compher

J.T. Compher

LW · #37

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

TB · top performer

TB
Gage Goncalves

Gage Goncalves

C · #93

2Points

2

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
DET36-23-7TB40-20-4
DET

DET

36-23-7

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
TB

TB

40-20-4

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

2

Season series

TB leads series 2-1

Oct 17TBTB1@DETDET2
Nov 28TBTB6@DETDET3
Mar 12DETDET1@TBTB4today
Apr 13DETDET3@TBTB4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DETDET+18036%
TBTB-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat DET 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DET0011
TB0134

Period scoring

DET won 0 · TB won 2

0
0

1

0
1

2

1
3

3

DET
TB

Play-by-play · 292 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DET 1·TB 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DET 1·TB 4

  3. 3rd·19:25

    Jacob Bernard-Docker hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous

    ·

    DET 1·TB 4

  4. 3rd·19:20

    Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    DET 1·TB 4

  5. 3rd·19:05

    Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Albert Johansson

    ·

    DET 1·TB 4

  6. 3rd·19:03

    Giveaway by Jacob Bernard-Docker

    DET 1·TB 4

  7. 3rd·19:00

    Sheldon Dries faceoff won against Yanni Gourde

    ·

    DET 1·TB 4

  8. 3rd·19:00

    Puck in Netting

    DET 1·TB 4

  9. 3rd·18:58

    Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    DET 1·TB 4

  10. 3rd·18:34

    Mason Appleton Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy

    ·

    DET 1·TB 4

  11. 3rd·18:27

    Takeaway by Moritz Seider

    DET 1·TB 4

  12. 3rd·18:04

    Michael Rasmussen hit Zemgus Girgensons

    ·

    DET 1·TB 4

  13. 3rd·17:41

    Giveaway by Victor Hedman

    DET 1·TB 4

  14. 3rd·17:31

    Giveaway by Pontus Holmberg

    DET 1·TB 4

  15. 3rd·16:55

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Sheldon Dries

    ·

    DET 1·TB 4

  16. 3rd·16:55

    Jake Guentzel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (25)

    ·

    DET 1·TB 4

  17. 3rd·16:49

    Takeaway by Brandon Hagel

    DET 1·TB 3

  18. 3rd·16:47

    Takeaway by Emmitt Finnie

    DET 1·TB 3

  19. 3rd·16:41

    Giveaway by Victor Hedman

    DET 1·TB 3

  20. 3rd·16:22

    Marco Kasper faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli

    ·

    DET 1·TB 3

  21. 3rd·16:22

    Gage Goncalves Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (26), Nikita Kucherov (72)

    · ·

    DET 1·TB 3

  22. 3rd·15:45

    Brayden Point faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    DET 1·TB 2

  23. 3rd·15:45

    Hand Pass

    DET 1·TB 2

  24. 3rd·15:11

    Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Marco Kasper

    ·

    DET 1·TB 2

  25. 3rd·15:11

    Icing

    DET 1·TB 2

  26. 3rd·15:02

    J.J. Moser hit Michael Rasmussen

    ·

    DET 1·TB 2

  27. 3rd·14:28

    Patrick Kane shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh

    ·

    DET 1·TB 2

  28. 3rd·13:58

    Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by John Gibson

    ·

    DET 1·TB 2

  29. 3rd·13:56

    Brayden Point faceoff won against J.T. Compher

    ·

    DET 1·TB 2

  30. 3rd·13:56

    Goalie Stopped

    DET 1·TB 2

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

TB

Home

25

Shots

29

0.0

PCT

100.0

2

PIM

2

21

Faceoffs W

21

20

Blocks

14

10

Giveaways

16

10

Takeaways

2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +180/TB -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 12 skaters with EDGE
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196
  • Emmitt FinnieDET · C
    BURSTS19394
  • Justin FaulkDET · D
    BURSTS6990
  • J.T. CompherDET · LW
    BURSTS15888

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · TB favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(TB win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR