Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at TB?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3TB

DET

36-23-7

40-20-4

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesTB leads series 2-1VegasTB -218

DET · top performer

J.T. Compher

LW · #37

1Points

—

SOG

TB · top performer

Gage Goncalves

C · #93

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	13:36
M. Brandsegg-NygardRW · #28	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:27
J.T. CompherLW · #37	1	0	-1	3	0	1	0	19:26
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	1	-1	2	0	1	0	18:15
S. DriesC · #15	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	10:16
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	17:44
P. KaneRW · #88	0	1	-1	4	2	0	0	19:19
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	18:07
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	12:58
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	19:52
D. ShineRW · #65	0	0	0	2	3	2	0	9:09
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	11:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14:14
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-1	2	1	2	0	18:47
S. EdvinssonD · #77	0	0	-1	1	0	4	0	24:12
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	-1	1	4	1	0	19:11
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	16:50
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	25:11

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	28	3	25	.893	59:32

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BjorkstrandRW · #22	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	13:38
A. CirelliC · #71	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	15:33
Z. GirgensonsC · #28	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	11:46
G. GoncalvesC · #93	2	0	2	5	2	2	0	18:47
Y. GourdeC · #37	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:25
J. GuentzelC · #59	2	0	0	5	1	0	0	15:56
B. HagelLW · #38	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:07
P. HolmbergRW · #29	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	11:42
N. KucherovRW · #86	0	2	2	3	0	0	2	18:33
C. PerryRW · #10	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	12:21
B. PointC · #21	0	2	2	2	0	1	0	18:13
S. SabourinRW · #46	0	0	0	1	4	0	0	9:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CarlileD · #67	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	13:52
C. D'AstousD · #51	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	18:41
V. HedmanD · #77	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	18:54
R. McDonaghD · #27	0	0	2	1	1	4	0	22:19
J.J. MoserD · #90	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	21:09
D. RaddyshD · #43	0	0	2	2	1	1	0	24:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. VasilevskiyG · #88	25	1	24	.960	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DET

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

TB leads series 2-1

Oct 17

TB1@

DET2

Nov 28

TB6@

DET3

Mar 12

DET1@

TB4today

Apr 13

DET3@

TB4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DET+18036%

TB-21869%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet TB -1.5↗SpreadBet TB -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

TB beat DET 4-1. G. Goncalves led the way — 2 G · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DET	0	0	1	1
TB	0	1	3	4

Period scoring

DET won 0 · TB won 2

DET

Play-by-play · 292 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·19:25
Jacob Bernard-Docker hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·19:20
Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In Wide Right
·
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·19:05
Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Albert Johansson
·
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·19:03
Giveaway by Jacob Bernard-Docker
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·19:00
Sheldon Dries faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·19:00
Puck in Netting
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·18:58
Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In Wide Right
·
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·18:34
Mason Appleton Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·18:27
Takeaway by Moritz Seider
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·18:04
Michael Rasmussen hit Zemgus Girgensons
·
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Victor Hedman
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·17:31
Giveaway by Pontus Holmberg
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·16:55
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Sheldon Dries
·
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·16:55
Jake Guentzel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (25)
·
DET 1·TB 4
3rd·16:49
Takeaway by Brandon Hagel
DET 1·TB 3
3rd·16:47
Takeaway by Emmitt Finnie
DET 1·TB 3
3rd·16:41
Giveaway by Victor Hedman
DET 1·TB 3
3rd·16:22
Marco Kasper faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
DET 1·TB 3
3rd·16:22
Gage Goncalves Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (26), Nikita Kucherov (72)
· ·
DET 1·TB 3
3rd·15:45
Brayden Point faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 1·TB 2
3rd·15:45
Hand Pass
DET 1·TB 2
3rd·15:11
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Marco Kasper
·
DET 1·TB 2
3rd·15:11
Icing
DET 1·TB 2
3rd·15:02
J.J. Moser hit Michael Rasmussen
·
DET 1·TB 2
3rd·14:28
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
DET 1·TB 2
3rd·13:58
Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 1·TB 2
3rd·13:56
Brayden Point faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 1·TB 2
3rd·13:56
Goalie Stopped
DET 1·TB 2

Betting line

TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +180/TB -218

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ampa Bay Lightning held off Detroit Red Wings, 4–1.

TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Gage Goncalves · TBL18:480.6958.3%73.2%18:48 TOI · 0.69 iXG · 58.3% CF · 73.2% xGF
Oliver Bjorkstrand · TBL13:480.6176.7%75.6%13:48 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 76.7% CF · 75.6% xGF
Pontus Holmberg · TBL11:360.5078.6%78.1%11:36 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 78.6% CF · 78.1% xGF
Patrick Kane · DET19:180.4070.0%70.0%19:18 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 70.0% CF · 70.0% xGF
Emmitt Finnie · DET18:000.3948.4%46.8%18:00 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 48.4% CF · 46.8% xGF
Jake Guentzel · TBL16:120.3844.4%34.4%16:12 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 44.4% CF · 34.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBL24–1.960+1.7324–1 · .960 SV% · +1.73 GSAx
John Gibson · DET25–3.893-0.0625–3 · .893 SV% · -0.06 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.5%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
62.5%
P(TB win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.5%
P(TB win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.5%
P(TB win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+180

Close price

+180

Open no-vig

34.3%

Close no-vig

34.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DET at TB?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Detroit Red WingsTampa Bay Lightning

Elsewhere in the NHL