
DET
36-23-7

TB
40-20-4
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ampa Bay Lightning held off Detroit Red Wings, 4–1.
TB -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
DET · top performer

J.T. Compher
LW · #37
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
TB · top performer

Gage Goncalves
C · #93
2
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


DET
36-23-7
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
TB
40-20-4
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
2
PIM
2
Season series
TB leads series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
TB beat DET 4-1.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TB | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
Period scoring
DET won 0 · TB won 2
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 292 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·19:25
Jacob Bernard-Docker hit Charle-Edouard D'Astous
·
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·19:20
Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In Wide Right
·
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·19:05
Yanni Gourde shot blocked by Albert Johansson
·
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·19:03
Giveaway by Jacob Bernard-Docker
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·19:00
Sheldon Dries faceoff won against Yanni Gourde
·
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·19:00
Puck in Netting
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·18:58
Oliver Bjorkstrand Tip-In Wide Right
·
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·18:34
Mason Appleton Snap Shot saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
·
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·18:27
Takeaway by Moritz Seider
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·18:04
Michael Rasmussen hit Zemgus Girgensons
·
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·17:41
Giveaway by Victor Hedman
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·17:31
Giveaway by Pontus Holmberg
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·16:55
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Sheldon Dries
·
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·16:55
Jake Guentzel Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Anthony Cirelli (25)
·
DET 1·TB 4
- 3rd·16:49
Takeaway by Brandon Hagel
DET 1·TB 3
- 3rd·16:47
Takeaway by Emmitt Finnie
DET 1·TB 3
- 3rd·16:41
Giveaway by Victor Hedman
DET 1·TB 3
- 3rd·16:22
Marco Kasper faceoff won against Anthony Cirelli
·
DET 1·TB 3
- 3rd·16:22
Gage Goncalves Goal (10) Deflected, assists: Brayden Point (26), Nikita Kucherov (72)
· ·
DET 1·TB 3
- 3rd·15:45
Brayden Point faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 1·TB 2
- 3rd·15:45
Hand Pass
DET 1·TB 2
- 3rd·15:11
Yanni Gourde faceoff won against Marco Kasper
·
DET 1·TB 2
- 3rd·15:11
Icing
DET 1·TB 2
- 3rd·15:02
J.J. Moser hit Michael Rasmussen
·
DET 1·TB 2
- 3rd·14:28
Patrick Kane shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
·
DET 1·TB 2
- 3rd·13:58
Darren Raddysh Slap Shot saved by John Gibson
·
DET 1·TB 2
- 3rd·13:56
Brayden Point faceoff won against J.T. Compher
·
DET 1·TB 2
- 3rd·13:56
Goalie Stopped
DET 1·TB 2
Team stats
DET
Away
Stat
TB
Home
25
Shots
29
0.0
PCT
100.0
2
PIM
2
21
Faceoffs W
21
20
Blocks
14
10
Giveaways
16
10
Takeaways
2
Betting line
TB -1.5·O/U 6.5·DET +180/TB -218
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 12 skaters with EDGE
Moritz SeiderDET · DDIST MI299.899
Alex DeBrincatDET · RWDIST MI252.196
Emmitt FinnieDET · CBURSTS19394
Justin FaulkDET · DBURSTS6990
J.T. CompherDET · LWBURSTS15888
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · TB favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+180
Close price
+180
Open no-vig
34.3%
Close no-vig
34.3%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss