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FINAL+3NYR
NYR

NYR

27-30-8

63
WPG

WPG

26-28-10

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesNYR lead series 1-0VegasWPG -155

Recap · NHL

ew York Rangers went into Winnipeg Jets and beat them, 6–3.

NYR +1.5 cashed (WPG lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NYR · top performer

NYR
Tye Kartye

Tye Kartye

LW · #24

2Points

1

G

1

A

—

SOG

WPG · top performer

WPG
Kyle Connor

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · New York Rangers at Winnipeg Jets · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
6
3
NYR27-30-8WPG26-28-10
NYR

NYR

27-30-8

6
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WPG

WPG

26-28-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

2

PIM

4

Season series

NYR lead series 1-0

Mar 13NYRNYR6@WPGWPG3today
Mar 22WPGWPG3@NYRNYR2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

WPG -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYRNYR+13043%
WPGWPG-15561%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗SpreadBet WPG -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NYR beat WPG 6-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NYR1146
WPG0213

Period scoring

NYR won 2 · WPG won 1

1
0

1

1
2

2

4
1

3

NYR
WPG

Play-by-play · 306 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NYR 6·WPG 3

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NYR 6·WPG 3

  3. 3rd·19:44

    Will Borgen Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 6·WPG 3

  4. 3rd·19:32

    Morgan Barron hit Jonny Brodzinski

    ·

    NYR 6·WPG 3

  5. 3rd·19:20

    Giveaway by Haydn Fleury

    NYR 6·WPG 3

  6. 3rd·19:19

    Juuso Parssinen hit Haydn Fleury

    ·

    NYR 6·WPG 3

  7. 3rd·19:09

    Juuso Parssinen faceoff won against Morgan Barron

    ·

    NYR 6·WPG 3

  8. 3rd·19:09

    Noah Laba Goal (8) Wrist Shot, assists: Tye Kartye (9), Vincent Trocheck (33)

    · ·

    NYR 6·WPG 3

  9. 3rd·18:48

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  10. 3rd·18:48

    Icing

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  11. 3rd·18:43

    Adam Fox Wrist Shot Wide Left

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  12. 3rd·18:41

    Josh Morrissey shot blocked by Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  13. 3rd·18:34

    Gabriel Vilardi Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  14. 3rd·18:20

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  15. 3rd·18:20

    Puck in Netting

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  16. 3rd·18:18

    Elias Salomonsson shot blocked by Tye Kartye

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  17. 3rd·18:13

    Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  18. 3rd·18:13

    Puck in Netting

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  19. 3rd·18:12

    Gabriel Vilardi shot blocked by Braden Schneider

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  20. 3rd·16:58

    Giveaway by Dylan Samberg

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  21. 3rd·16:12

    Alex Iafallo shot blocked by Urho Vaakanainen

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  22. 3rd·15:45

    Adam Lowry hit Braden Schneider

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  23. 3rd·15:40

    Adam Lowry Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  24. 3rd·15:37

    Josh Morrissey Snap Shot Hit Right Post

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  25. 3rd·15:24

    Adam Lowry hit Vincent Trocheck

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  26. 3rd·15:21

    Morgan Barron Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  27. 3rd·14:49

    Isak Rosen shot blocked by Adam Fox

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  28. 3rd·14:27

    Giveaway by Jonathan Toews

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  29. 3rd·14:12

    Tye Kartye Wrist Shot High and Wide Left

    ·

    NYR 5·WPG 3

  30. 3rd·14:09

    Giveaway by Tye Kartye

    NYR 5·WPG 3

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

WPG

Home

17

Shots

26

50.0

PCT

0.0

2

PIM

4

23

Faceoffs W

30

18

Blocks

15

20

Giveaways

18

6

Takeaways

1

Betting line

WPG -1.5·O/U 5.5·NYR +130/WPG -155

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Kyle ConnorWPG · LW
    DIST MI293.099+
  • Cole KoepkeWPG · LW
    SKATE MPH24.299
  • Adam EdstromNYR · C
    SKATE MPH23.898
  • Morgan BarronWPG · C
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Josh MorrisseyWPG · D
    DIST MI282.397

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WPG favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WPG win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WPG vs NYR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

144

projections · 114 high confidence

Shots on goal

  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    3.7± 1.8high
  • Mika ZibanejadNYR
    2.2± 1.0high
  • Josh MorrisseyWPG
    2.1± 1.1high

Goals

  • Kyle ConnorWPG
    0.6± 0.8high
  • Gabe PerreaultNYR
    0.4± 1.0high
  • Adam FoxNYR
    0.3± 0.5high

Points

  • Mark ScheifeleWPG
    1.4± 1.2high
  • Adam FoxNYR
    1.2± 1.0high
  • J.T. MillerNYR
    1.0± 1.0high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR