Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at BOS?

The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SJ

31-26-6

BOS

36-23-6

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesSJ wins series 2-0VegasBOS -162

SJ · top performer

William Eklund

LW · #72

2Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	1	0	5	0	1	0	21:11
W. EklundLW · #72	1	1	2	3	0	1	0	15:24
A. GaudetteRW · #81	0	0	-2	2	2	1	0	15:29
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	-1	2	0	1	2	11:31
C. GrafRW · #51	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:28
M. MisaC · #77	1	1	1	1	0	0	0	11:16
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	1	1	1	2	0	11:23
R. ReavesRW · #75	0	0	1	1	8	0	0	9:06
K. SherwoodLW · #44	0	0	-1	3	6	2	10	16:27
W. SmithC · #2	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	16:49
T. ToffoliC · #73	1	1	1	2	1	0	0	11:29
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	18:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	2	0	0	3	10	23:08
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	20:06
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	20:32
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	16:40
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	18:25
D. OrlovD · #9	0	1	0	1	3	2	0	21:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	41	2	39	.951	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. ArvidssonLW · #71	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	17:24
M. GeekieC · #39	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	20:43
T. JeannotLW · #84	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	8:54
M. KastelicC · #47	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	7:58
M. KhusnutdinovC · #92	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	14:10
S. KuralyC · #52	0	0	-1	2	1	0	0	8:23
E. LindholmC · #28	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:25
F. MintenC · #93	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	17:21
C. MittelstadtC · #11	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:03
D. PastrnakRW · #88	1	1	0	4	2	0	10	25:00
A. SteevesC · #21	0	0	0	2	7	0	0	10:44
P. ZachaC · #18	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	19:05

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AspirotD · #45	0	0	0	2	1	1	0	15:27
H. LindholmD · #27	0	0	0	4	0	1	0	20:05
M. LohreiD · #6	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	20:19
C. McAvoyD · #73	0	1	-1	2	1	1	2	24:26
A. PeekeD · #26	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	17:12
N. ZadorovD · #91	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	15:59

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SwaymanG · #1	28	4	24	.857	56:46

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SJ wins series 2-0

Nov 24

BOS1@

SJ3

Mar 12

SJ4@

BOS2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+13642%

BOS-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat BOS 4-2. W. Eklund led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	1	2	4
BOS	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

SJ won 2 · BOS won 0

BOS

Play-by-play · 338 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:59
Zack Ostapchuk Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:52
Mario Ferraro Slap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:50
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Mark Kastelic
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:50
Vincent Desharnais Misconduct
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:50
Kiefer Sherwood Misconduct
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:50
David Pastrnak Misconduct
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:50
Charlie McAvoy Elbowing against Kiefer Sherwood
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:43
Elias Lindholm shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:43
Giveaway by Vincent Desharnais
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:39
Pavel Zacha Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:38
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:38
Puck Frozen - Goalie
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:07
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:07
David Pastrnak Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (40), Casey Mittelstadt (20)
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:01
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·19:01
Icing
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:54
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:54
Icing
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:47
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Adam Gaudette
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:47
Icing
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:41
David Pastrnak hit Sam Dickinson
·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:53
Viktor Arvidsson Deflected saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:42
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:38
Mason Lohrei shot blocked by Marat Khusnutdinov
·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:35
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:35
Icing
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:28
David Pastrnak hit Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·16:51
Giveaway by Dmitry Orlov
SJ 4·BOS 1

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +136/BOS -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Boston Bruins and beat them, 4–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Macklin Celebrini · SJS21:120.8140.9%51.1%21:12 TOI · 0.81 iXG · 40.9% CF · 51.1% xGF
David Pastrnak · BOS25:240.6166.0%55.7%25:24 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 66.0% CF · 55.7% xGF
Pavel Zacha · BOS19:120.6162.9%50.5%19:12 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 62.9% CF · 50.5% xGF
Fraser Minten · BOS17:360.6064.9%58.2%17:36 TOI · 0.60 iXG · 64.9% CF · 58.2% xGF
Elias Lindholm · BOS20:420.5167.4%60.5%20:42 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 67.4% CF · 60.5% xGF
Collin Graf · SJS17:360.4743.3%54.3%17:36 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 43.3% CF · 54.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Alex Nedeljkovic · SJS39–2.951+2.0139–2 · .951 SV% · +2.01 GSAx
Jeremy Swayman · BOS24–4.857-0.8224–4 · .857 SV% · -0.82 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

61.6%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
61.6%
P(BOS win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
61.6%
P(BOS win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
61.6%
P(BOS win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SJ at BOS?: The model favors BOS, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

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