NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2SJ

31-26-6

BOS

36-23-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesSJ wins series 2-0VegasBOS -162

Recap · NHL

an Jose Sharks went into Boston Bruins and beat them, 4–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (BOS lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

William Eklund

LW · #72

2Points

—

SOG

BOS · top performer

David Pastrnak

RW · #88

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

SJ31-26-6

BOS36-23-6

SJ31-26-6BOS36-23-6

31-26-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

BOS

36-23-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

SJ wins series 2-0

Nov 24

BOS1@

SJ3

Mar 12

SJ4@

BOS2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BOS -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ+13642%

BOS-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗SpreadBet BOS -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SJ beat BOS 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	1	2	4
BOS	0	0	2	2

Period scoring

SJ won 2 · BOS won 0

BOS

Play-by-play · 338 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:59
Zack Ostapchuk Wrist Shot saved by Jeremy Swayman
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:52
Mario Ferraro Slap Shot Wide Right
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:50
Zack Ostapchuk faceoff won against Mark Kastelic
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:50
Vincent Desharnais Misconduct
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:50
Kiefer Sherwood Misconduct
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:50
David Pastrnak Misconduct
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:50
Charlie McAvoy Elbowing against Kiefer Sherwood
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:43
Elias Lindholm shot blocked by Alexander Wennberg
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:43
Giveaway by Vincent Desharnais
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:39
Pavel Zacha Slap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:38
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:38
Puck Frozen - Goalie
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:07
Alexander Wennberg faceoff won against Pavel Zacha
·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:07
David Pastrnak Goal (24) Slap Shot, assists: Charlie McAvoy (40), Casey Mittelstadt (20)
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 2
3rd·19:01
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·19:01
Icing
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:54
Adam Gaudette faceoff won against Elias Lindholm
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:54
Icing
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:47
Elias Lindholm faceoff won against Adam Gaudette
· ·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:47
Icing
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·18:41
David Pastrnak hit Sam Dickinson
·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:53
Viktor Arvidsson Deflected saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:42
Giveaway by Macklin Celebrini
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:38
Mason Lohrei shot blocked by Marat Khusnutdinov
·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:35
Fraser Minten faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:35
Icing
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·17:28
David Pastrnak hit Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 4·BOS 1
3rd·16:51
Giveaway by Dmitry Orlov
SJ 4·BOS 1

Team stats

Away

Stat

BOS

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

BOS -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ +136/BOS -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Marat KhusnutdinovBOS · C
SKATE MPH23.092
Morgan GeekieBOS · C
SHOT MPH88.989
Jonathan AspirotBOS · D
SHOT MPH94.081
Tanner JeannotBOS · LW
SHOT MPH86.679
Elias LindholmBOS · C
SHOT MPH86.478

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-162

Close price

-162

Open no-vig

59.3%

Close no-vig

59.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Player projections

BOS vs SJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
David PastrnakBOS
3.2± 2.2high
Matthew PoitrasBOS
2.7± 2.8low

Goals

Morgan GeekieBOS
0.6± 0.9high
Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
David PastrnakBOS
0.3± 0.5high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
David PastrnakBOS
1.1± 1.1high
Morgan GeekieBOS
0.9± 1.2high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands