Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at VAN?

The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1VAN

NSH

29-27-9

VAN

20-37-8

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesVAN wins series 2-1VegasNSH -170

NSH · top performer

Tyson Jost

C · #17

2Points

—

SOG

VAN · top performer

Brock Boeser

RW · #6

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final/SO

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	21:12
F. ForsbergLW · #9	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	21:51
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	19:00
T. JostC · #17	2	0	1	4	1	1	2	13:00
Z. L'HeureuxLW · #68	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	8:38
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	17:00
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	-1	2	1	2	2	23:14
R. SchaeferLW · #49	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	7:07
S. StamkosC · #91	0	0	-2	1	3	2	0	20:46
F. SvechkovC · #40	0	1	1	0	2	0	0	14:24
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	2	0	5	0	0	12:21
M. WoodRW · #71	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	10:48

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	14:33
N. HagueD · #41	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:47
R. JosiD · #59	0	1	0	1	0	3	0	28:35
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	20:01
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	23:48
R. UfkoD · #85	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	13:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	27	3	24	.889	65:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BluegerC · #53	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	19:16
B. BoeserRW · #6	1	1	2	4	0	0	0	18:26
J. DeBruskLW · #74	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:25
C. DouglasC · #42	0	0	-1	1	2	0	2	9:53
E. KaneLW · #91	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	17:44
L. KarlssonC · #94	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	14:40
D. O'ConnorLW · #18	0	0	1	4	2	1	0	18:40
L. OhgrenLW · #92	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	16:47
E. PetterssonC · #40	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	19:36
A. RatyC · #54	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	10:15
M. RossiC · #93	1	2	2	1	0	0	4	14:08
M. SassonC · #63	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:58

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BuiumD · #24	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	18:44
F. HronekD · #17	1	1	3	1	1	3	0	29:03
V. ManciniD · #90	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	12:20
M. PetterssonD · #29	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	24:54
Elias N. PetterssonD · #25	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	17:14
T. WillanderD · #5	0	0	-1	0	0	2	0	23:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. TolopiloG · #60	19	3	16	.842	63:53

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

VAN

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

VAN wins series 2-1

Oct 24

VAN1@

NSH2

Nov 4

VAN5@

NSH4

Mar 13

NSH3@

VAN4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NSH -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH-17063%

VAN+14241%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗SpreadBet NSH -1.5↗

Line movement · 70 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VAN beat NSH 4-3. B. Boeser led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	SO	T
NSH	1	2	0	0	0	3
VAN	1	0	2	0	1	4

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · VAN won 2

NSH

VAN

Play-by-play · 278 plays

period

event

player

SO·0:00
Game End
NSH 0·VAN 1
SO·0:00
End of OT
NSH 0·VAN 1
SO·0:00
End of Shootout
NSH 0·VAN 1
SO·0:00
Steven Stamkos Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
NSH 0·VAN 1
SO·0:00
Elias Pettersson Backhand saved by Juuse Saros
· ·
NSH 0·VAN 1
SO·0:00
Filip Forsberg Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
NSH 0·VAN 1
SO·0:00
Jake DeBrusk Goal Wrist Shot
NSH 0·VAN 1
SO·0:00
Ryan O'Reilly Backhand Above Crossbar
·
NSH 0·VAN 1
SO·0:00
Liam Ohgren Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 0·VAN 1
SO·0:00
Start of Shootout
NSH 0·VAN 1
OT·5:00
End of OT
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·4:47
Drew O'Connor Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·4:26
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Erik Haula
·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·4:26
Puck in Crowd
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·4:23
Brady Skjei Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·4:16
Fedor Svechkov faceoff won against Marco Rossi
·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·4:16
Goalie Stopped
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·4:13
Elias Pettersson Wrist Shot saved by Juuse Saros
· ·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·4:04
Ryan O'Reilly Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·3:47
Elias Pettersson Snap Shot Wide Left
· ·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·2:55
Aatu Räty faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·2:55
Goalie Stopped
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·2:53
Luke Evangelista Wrist Shot saved by Nikita Tolopilo
·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·0:47
Takeaway by Liam Ohgren
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·0:19
Filip Forsberg shot blocked by Filip Hronek
·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·0:00
Ryan O'Reilly faceoff won against Elias Pettersson
· ·
NSH 3·VAN 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
NSH 3·VAN 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 3·VAN 3
3rd·19:38
Liam Ohgren Snap Shot Wide Left
·
NSH 3·VAN 3
3rd·19:37
Takeaway by Liam Ohgren
NSH 3·VAN 3

Betting line

NSH -1.5·O/U 6.5·NSH -170/VAN +142

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ancouver Canucks held off Nashville Predators, 4–3.

VAN +1.5 cashed (NSH lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

46.2%

ensemble · NSH favored

Elo Static
46.2%
P(VAN win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
46.2%
P(VAN win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
46.2%
P(VAN win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+142

Close price

+142

Open no-vig

39.6%

Close no-vig

39.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at VAN?: The model favors VAN, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Nashville PredatorsVancouver Canucks

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