NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

CBJ

33-21-11

FLA

33-29-3

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesFLA wins series 2-1VegasCBJ -125

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Columbus Blue Jackets, 2–1 in overtime.

FLA +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CBJ · top performer

Adam Fantilli

C · #19

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Sam Reinhart

C · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

CBJ33-21-11

FLA33-29-3

CBJ33-21-11FLA33-29-3

CBJ

33-21-11

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

FLA

33-29-3

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

FLA wins series 2-1

Dec 6

CBJ6@

FLA7

Mar 6

FLA2@

CBJ4

Mar 12

CBJ1@

FLA2today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-12556%

FLA+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 18 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat CBJ 2-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
CBJ	0	1	0	0	1
FLA	0	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

CBJ won 1 · FLA won 2

CBJ

FLA

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:20
Game End
CBJ 1·FLA 2
OT·2:20
End of OT
CBJ 1·FLA 2
OT·2:20
Sam Reinhart Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (12), Mike Benning (1)
· ·
CBJ 1·FLA 2
OT·1:43
Matthew Tkachuk Snap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·1:31
Sam Bennett Backhand saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·1:10
Sam Reinhart Tip-In saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:53
Aaron Ekblad shot blocked by Dante Fabbro
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:48
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:48
Timeout - Home
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:48
Adam Fantilli Tripping against Matthew Tkachuk
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:45
Matthew Tkachuk Snap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:39
Zach Werenski Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:00
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·19:56
Zach Werenski shot blocked by Eetu Luostarinen
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·19:54
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·19:54
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·19:52
Zach Werenski Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·18:12
Tomas Nosek faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·18:12
Puck in Netting
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·18:10
Adam Fantilli shot blocked by Dmitry Kulikov
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·17:39
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·17:39
Icing
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·17:25
Eetu Luostarinen Slap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·17:19
Evan Rodrigues shot blocked by Denton Mateychuk
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·17:03
Aaron Ekblad Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·16:56
Evan Rodrigues Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·15:25
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·15:25
Puck in Penalty Benches
CBJ 1·FLA 1

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ -125/FLA +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE

Ivan ProvorovCBJ · D
DIST MI299.999+
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ · RW
BURSTS30199
Zach WerenskiCBJ · D
DIST MI289.198
Gustav ForslingFLA · D
SHOT MPH100.497
Adam FantilliCBJ · C
DIST MI256.696

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(FLA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Player projections

FLA vs CBJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Zach WerenskiCBJ
3.4± 2.5high
Kirill MarchenkoCBJ
2.8± 1.6high
Sam BennettFLA
2.7± 2.1high

Goals

Carter VerhaegheFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Cole ReinhardtFLA
0.4± 0.7high
Mackie SamoskevichFLA
0.4± 0.5high

Points

Aleksander BarkovFLA
1.1± 1.1high
Matthew TkachukFLA
1.1± 1.4high
Sam ReinhartFLA
0.9± 0.7high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands