Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at FLA?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1FLA

CBJ

33-21-11

FLA

33-29-3

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesFLA wins series 2-1VegasCBJ -125

CBJ · top performer

Adam Fantilli

C · #19

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Sam Reinhart

C · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	18:49
A. FantilliC · #19	1	0	1	2	0	0	2	19:31
C. GarlandRW · #83	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	15:21
B. JennerC · #38	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	14:07
K. JohnsonC · #91	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	13:48
I. LundestromC · #21	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	11:20
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	17:54
M. MarchmentLW · #17	0	1	1	4	3	0	0	20:19
S. MonahanC · #23	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	14:45
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	15:05
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	13:41
D. VoronkovLW · #10	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:18

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChristiansenD · #2	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	12:00
D. FabbroD · #15	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	21:55
D. MateychukD · #5	0	0	0	3	2	3	0	17:28
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	22:34
D. SeversonD · #78	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	18:06
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	0	1	5	0	1	0	28:31

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. MerzlikinsG · #90	21	2	19	.905	62:20

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	16:10
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	12:04
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	18:44
V. HinostrozaC · #24	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:49
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:36
E. LuostarinenC · #27	0	0	0	1	1	1	2	15:08
T. NosekLW · #92	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	16:04
C. ReinhardtLW · #29	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	14:59
S. ReinhartC · #13	1	1	0	3	0	1	0	17:52
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	17:29
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	1	0	1	2	1	0	15:19
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	16:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BenningD · #20	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	16:49
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	22:52
G. ForslingD · #42	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	21:07
D. KulikovD · #7	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	21:09
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	-1	1	6	3	0	18:29
D. SebrangoD · #6	0	0	-1	2	2	1	2	20:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	31	1	30	.968	62:20

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

100.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

FLA wins series 2-1

Dec 6

CBJ6@

FLA7

Mar 6

FLA2@

CBJ4

Mar 12

CBJ1@

FLA2today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CBJ -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-12556%

FLA+10549%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗SpreadBet CBJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 53 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

FLA beat CBJ 2-1. S. Reinhart led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
CBJ	0	1	0	0	1
FLA	0	0	1	1	2

Period scoring

CBJ won 1 · FLA won 2

CBJ

FLA

Play-by-play · 289 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:20
Game End
CBJ 1·FLA 2
OT·2:20
End of OT
CBJ 1·FLA 2
OT·2:20
Sam Reinhart Goal (29) Wrist Shot, assists: Matthew Tkachuk (12), Mike Benning (1)
· ·
CBJ 1·FLA 2
OT·1:43
Matthew Tkachuk Snap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·1:31
Sam Bennett Backhand saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·1:10
Sam Reinhart Tip-In saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:53
Aaron Ekblad shot blocked by Dante Fabbro
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:48
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Charlie Coyle
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:48
Timeout - Home
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:48
Adam Fantilli Tripping against Matthew Tkachuk
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:45
Matthew Tkachuk Snap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:39
Zach Werenski Snap Shot Above Crossbar
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:00
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·19:56
Zach Werenski shot blocked by Eetu Luostarinen
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·19:54
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·19:54
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·19:52
Zach Werenski Snap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·18:12
Tomas Nosek faceoff won against Adam Fantilli
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·18:12
Puck in Netting
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·18:10
Adam Fantilli shot blocked by Dmitry Kulikov
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·17:39
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Sean Monahan
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·17:39
Icing
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·17:25
Eetu Luostarinen Slap Shot saved by Elvis Merzlikins
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·17:19
Evan Rodrigues shot blocked by Denton Mateychuk
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·17:03
Aaron Ekblad Snap Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·16:56
Evan Rodrigues Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·15:25
Charlie Coyle faceoff won against Tomas Nosek
·
CBJ 1·FLA 1
3rd·15:25
Puck in Penalty Benches
CBJ 1·FLA 1

Betting line

CBJ -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ -125/FLA +105

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

lorida Panthers held off Columbus Blue Jackets, 2–1 in overtime.

FLA +1.5 cashed (CBJ lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Mason Marchment · CBJ20:420.8675.0%93.4%20:42 TOI · 0.86 iXG · 75.0% CF · 93.4% xGF
Zach Werenski · CBJ28:480.5059.6%58.3%28:48 TOI · 0.50 iXG · 59.6% CF · 58.3% xGF
Evan Rodrigues · NJD17:300.4658.1%43.8%17:30 TOI · 0.46 iXG · 58.1% CF · 43.8% xGF
Sam Bennett · FLA16:240.4051.3%52.0%16:24 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 51.3% CF · 52.0% xGF
Sam Reinhart · FLA18:060.4066.7%61.6%18:06 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 66.7% CF · 61.6% xGF
Matthew Tkachuk · FLA16:120.3759.5%56.1%16:12 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 59.5% CF · 56.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Sergei Bobrovsky · FLA30–1.968+3.0830–1 · .968 SV% · +3.08 GSAx
Elvis Merzlikins · CBJ19–2.905+0.3119–2 · .905 SV% · +0.31 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.1%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
55.1%
P(FLA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.1%
P(FLA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+105

Close price

+105

Open no-vig

46.8%

Close no-vig

46.8%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at FLA?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Columbus Blue JacketsFlorida Panthers

Elsewhere in the NHL