NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

CGY

26-32-7

32-31-2

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNJ -192

Recap · NHL

algary Flames went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 5–4.

CGY +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CGY · top performer

John Beecher

C · #18

2Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Jesper Bratt

LW · #63

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

CGY26-32-7

NJ32-31-2

CGY26-32-7NJ32-31-2

CGY

26-32-7

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

32-31-2

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 20

NJ2@

CGY1

Mar 12

CGY5@

NJ4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+16038%

NJ-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 6 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat NJ 5-4.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	2	2	1	5
NJ	1	1	2	4

Period scoring

CGY won 2 · NJ won 1

CGY

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 5·NJ 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 5·NJ 4
3rd·19:56
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
CGY 5·NJ 4
3rd·19:56
Luke Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (36), Jack Hughes (31)
· ·
CGY 5·NJ 4
3rd·19:05
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·19:05
Joel Hanley Cross-checking against Timo Meier
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·19:03
Jack Hughes Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
· ·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:52
Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:51
Jesper Bratt Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:44
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Ryan Strome
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:44
Icing
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:34
Timo Meier hit Joel Hanley
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:13
Jack Hughes Snap Shot Wide Right
· ·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:00
Timo Meier Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:53
Timo Meier Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:46
Nico Hischier Deflected Wide Left
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:34
Jesper Bratt shot blocked by Olli Maatta
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:27
Giveaway by Kevin Bahl
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:16
Jack Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Right
· ·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:14
Timo Meier Backhand saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:13
Dougie Hamilton Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:04
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:04
Goalie Stopped
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:02
Dougie Hamilton Slap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·16:16
Simon Nemec shot blocked by Joel Hanley
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·15:42
Brayden Pachal Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·15:38
Joel Farabee hit Cody Glass
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·15:04
Kevin Bahl shot blocked by Nico Hischier
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·14:32
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·14:32
Off-side
CGY 5·NJ 3

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +160/NJ -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 14 skaters with EDGE

Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297
Mikael BacklundCGY · C
SHOT MPH93.594
Adam KlapkaCGY · RW
SHOT MPH92.691
Joel FarabeeCGY · LW
DIST MI215.486
Matt CoronatoCGY · RW
DIST MI214.185

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NJ win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NJ win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NJ win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NJ vs CGY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 120 high confidence

Shots on goal

Jack HughesNJ
4.3± 1.7high
Timo MeierNJ
3.3± 3.0high
Blake ColemanCGY
2.7± 1.6high

Goals

Jack HughesNJ
0.6± 0.8high
Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Morgan FrostCGY
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Jack HughesNJ
1.6± 1.7high
Jesper BrattNJ
1.0± 1.7high
Nico HischierNJ
0.9± 1.1high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands