NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

CGY

26-32-7

32-31-2

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasNJ -192

CGY · top performer

John Beecher

C · #18

2Points

—

SOG

NJ · top performer

Jack Hughes

C · #86

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	18:07
J. BeecherC · #18	2	0	1	4	0	3	0	15:15
B. ColemanLW · #20	0	0	1	4	3	2	0	17:20
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:07
J. FarabeeLW · #86	0	1	2	0	1	1	0	16:25
M. FrostC · #16	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	11:41
M. GridinRW · #92	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	10:55
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	1	-1	1	6	1	0	11:58
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	16:18
Y. SharangovichC · #17	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	16:37
R. StromeC · #22	0	1	2	1	0	0	0	15:02
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	12:15

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	1	0	1	2	2	2	0	27:33
H. BrzustewiczD · #48	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	15:23
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	1	2	0	3	6	16:41
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	1	2	3	2	0	17:09
O. MaattaD · #3	0	1	1	2	1	2	0	27:19
B. PachalD · #94	0	1	2	1	4	1	0	16:05

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	32	4	28	.875	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. BjugstadC · #72	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	11:15
J. BrattLW · #63	0	2	-2	1	0	1	0	20:11
C. BrownRW · #16	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	17:20
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:07
C. GlassC · #12	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	14:19
A. GritsyukRW · #81	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	17:10
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	12:28
N. HischierC · #13	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	20:59
J. HughesC · #86	1	1	-3	5	0	0	0	20:57
T. MeierRW · #28	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	16:40
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	15:49
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	1	0	1	1	3	0	0	11:13

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	16:31
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	1	-1	2	2	0	0	21:32
L. HughesD · #43	1	1	-1	5	0	1	0	25:03
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:30
S. NemecD · #17	1	0	-2	1	2	1	0	21:22
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	13:39

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarkstromG · #25	29	5	24	.828	55:55

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CGY

Away

Stat

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 20

NJ2@

CGY1

Mar 12

CGY5@

NJ4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NJ -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CGY+16038%

NJ-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗SpreadBet NJ -1.5↗

Line movement · 19 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat NJ 5-4. J. Beecher led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CGY	2	2	1	5
NJ	1	1	2	4

Period scoring

CGY won 2 · NJ won 1

CGY

Play-by-play · 305 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CGY 5·NJ 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CGY 5·NJ 4
3rd·19:56
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
CGY 5·NJ 4
3rd·19:56
Luke Hughes Goal (6) Wrist Shot, assists: Jesper Bratt (36), Jack Hughes (31)
· ·
CGY 5·NJ 4
3rd·19:05
Mikael Backlund faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·19:05
Joel Hanley Cross-checking against Timo Meier
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·19:03
Jack Hughes Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
· ·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:52
Jesper Bratt Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:51
Jesper Bratt Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:44
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Ryan Strome
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:44
Icing
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:34
Timo Meier hit Joel Hanley
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:13
Jack Hughes Snap Shot Wide Right
· ·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·18:00
Timo Meier Tip-In saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:53
Timo Meier Wrist Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:46
Nico Hischier Deflected Wide Left
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:34
Jesper Bratt shot blocked by Olli Maatta
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:27
Giveaway by Kevin Bahl
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:16
Jack Hughes Wrist Shot Wide Right
· ·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:14
Timo Meier Backhand saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:13
Dougie Hamilton Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:04
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Mikael Backlund
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:04
Goalie Stopped
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·17:02
Dougie Hamilton Slap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·16:16
Simon Nemec shot blocked by Joel Hanley
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·15:42
Brayden Pachal Wrist Shot saved by Jacob Markstrom
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·15:38
Joel Farabee hit Cody Glass
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·15:04
Kevin Bahl shot blocked by Nico Hischier
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·14:32
Ryan Strome faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
CGY 5·NJ 3
3rd·14:32
Off-side
CGY 5·NJ 3

Betting line

NJ -1.5·O/U 5.5·CGY +160/NJ -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames went into New Jersey Devils and beat them, 5–4.

CGY +1.5 cashed (NJ lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 3.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Timo Meier · NJD16:420.6176.3%83.7%16:42 TOI · 0.61 iXG · 76.3% CF · 83.7% xGF
Jack Hughes · NJD21:180.5272.0%71.0%21:18 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 72.0% CF · 71.0% xGF
Blake Coleman · CGY17:120.4834.1%38.4%17:12 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 34.1% CF · 38.4% xGF
John Beecher · CGY15:180.4025.9%45.3%15:18 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 25.9% CF · 45.3% xGF
Arseny Gritsyuk · NJD17:300.3864.9%68.5%17:30 TOI · 0.38 iXG · 64.9% CF · 68.5% xGF
Luke Hughes · NJD25:120.3766.7%64.3%25:12 TOI · 0.37 iXG · 66.7% CF · 64.3% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Dustin Wolf · CGY28–4.875-0.7128–4 · .875 SV% · -0.71 GSAx
Jacob Markstrom · FLA24–5.828-2.1924–5 · .828 SV% · -2.19 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.0%

ensemble · NJ favored

Elo Static
62.0%
P(NJ win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.0%
P(NJ win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.0%
P(NJ win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

Calgary FlamesNew Jersey Devils

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