Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at CAR?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2STL

STL

26-29-10

CAR

41-18-6

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-0VegasCAR -290

STL · top performer

Jimmy Snuggerud

RW · #21

2Points

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	1	0	1	3	0	1	0	17:23
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	12:24
J. FinleyC · #37	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	11:33
D. HollowayLW · #81	0	2	2	2	3	1	0	20:55
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:07
J. NeighboursLW · #63	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	12:46
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	2	0	2	3	0	0	0	20:03
O. StenbergC · #28	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	12:51
P. SuterC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:55
R. ThomasC · #18	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	18:41
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	10:59
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	11:25

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	23:25
C. FowlerD · #17	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	19:58
T. LindsteinD · #41	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	14:59
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	21:41
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	21:29
T. TuckerD · #75	0	0	1	0	3	1	0	16:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	32	1	31	.969	59:40

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	0	0	-1	7	0	0	0	20:30
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	17:59
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	10:54
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	15:02
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:10
M. JankowskiLW · #77	1	0	1	1	0	0	0	11:59
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	20:34
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	0	-2	2	2	0	0	11:26
E. RobinsonLW · #50	0	0	1	1	2	0	0	10:28
J. StaalC · #11	0	0	-3	5	3	0	0	14:40
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	16:30
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	19:38

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	-2	2	1	1	0	18:48
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	23:07
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	16:59
M. ReillyD · #6	0	0	1	2	1	2	2	14:08
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	-2	1	0	3	0	19:41
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	2	2	1	0	21:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BussiG · #32	16	2	14	.875	57:57

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

STL wins series 2-0

Jan 14

CAR0@

STL3

Mar 12

STL3@

CAR1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STL+23530%

CAR-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 55 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat CAR 3-1. J. Snuggerud led the way — 2 G · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
STL	0	1	2	3
CAR	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

STL won 2 · CAR won 1

STL

CAR

Play-by-play · 277 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
STL 3·CAR 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
STL 3·CAR 1
3rd·19:58
William Carrier shot blocked by Jake Neighbours
·
STL 3·CAR 1
3rd·19:51
William Carrier Snap Shot Wide Right
·
STL 3·CAR 1
3rd·19:09
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Pius Suter
·
STL 3·CAR 1
3rd·19:09
Pavel Buchnevich Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Finley (3), Alexey Toropchenko (5)
· ·
STL 3·CAR 1
3rd·19:01
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·19:01
Icing
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·18:54
Jack Finley faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·18:54
Puck in Netting
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·18:52
Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Pavel Buchnevich
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·18:48
Giveaway by Philip Broberg
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·18:08
Sebastian Aho Snap Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:55
Alexander Nikishin shot blocked by Dylan Holloway
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:48
Jordan Staal Tip-In saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:47
Giveaway by Dylan Holloway
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:44
Andrei Svechnikov shot blocked by Colton Parayko
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:40
Pius Suter faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:40
Puck in Netting
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:21
Jack Finley faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:21
Goalie Stopped
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:18
Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:15
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:15
Puck in Netting
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·17:13
Logan Stankoven Tip-In Wide Right
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·16:37
Pavel Buchnevich Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·16:26
Jack Finley hit Alexander Nikishin
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·16:01
Alexander Nikishin Snap Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·16:00
Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Jack Finley
·
STL 2·CAR 1
3rd·16:00
Icing
STL 2·CAR 1

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +235/CAR -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Carolina Hurricanes and beat them, 3–1.

STL +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Sebastian Aho · CAR20:360.7072.4%85.1%20:36 TOI · 0.70 iXG · 72.4% CF · 85.1% xGF
Jordan Staal · CAR15:120.5565.5%60.4%15:12 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 65.5% CF · 60.4% xGF
William Carrier · CAR11:000.4964.7%87.3%11:00 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 64.7% CF · 87.3% xGF
Logan Stankoven · CAR16:420.4570.4%74.8%16:42 TOI · 0.45 iXG · 70.4% CF · 74.8% xGF
Jimmy Snuggerud · STL20:180.4032.3%28.9%20:18 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 32.3% CF · 28.9% xGF
Jackson Blake · CAR18:060.3262.1%69.4%18:06 TOI · 0.32 iXG · 62.1% CF · 69.4% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jordan Binnington · STL31–1.969+3.0331–1 · .969 SV% · +3.03 GSAx
Brandon Bussi · CAR14–2.875-0.4914–2 · .875 SV% · -0.49 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

69.7%

ensemble · CAR favored

Elo Static
69.7%
P(CAR win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
69.7%
P(CAR win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
69.7%
P(CAR win)
17%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+235

Close price

+235

Open no-vig

28.6%

Close no-vig

28.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in STL at CAR?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

St. Louis BluesCarolina Hurricanes

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