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FINAL+2STL
STL

STL

26-29-10

31
CAR

CAR

41-18-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriesSTL wins series 2-0VegasCAR -290

Recap · NHL

t. Louis Blues went into Carolina Hurricanes and beat them, 3–1.

STL +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

STL · top performer

STL
Dylan Holloway

Dylan Holloway

LW · #81

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

CAR · top performer

CAR
Mark Jankowski

Mark Jankowski

LW · #77

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · St. Louis Blues at Carolina Hurricanes · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
1
STL26-29-10CAR41-18-6
STL

STL

26-29-10

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
CAR

CAR

41-18-6

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

4

PIM

2

Season series

STL wins series 2-0

Jan 14CARCAR0@STLSTL3
Mar 12STLSTL3@CARCAR1today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

STLSTL+23530%
CARCAR-29074%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

STL beat CAR 3-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
STL0123
CAR1001

Period scoring

STL won 2 · CAR won 1

0
1

1

1
0

2

2
0

3

STL
CAR

Play-by-play · 277 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    STL 3·CAR 1

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    STL 3·CAR 1

  3. 3rd·19:58

    William Carrier shot blocked by Jake Neighbours

    ·

    STL 3·CAR 1

  4. 3rd·19:51

    William Carrier Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    STL 3·CAR 1

  5. 3rd·19:09

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Pius Suter

    ·

    STL 3·CAR 1

  6. 3rd·19:09

    Pavel Buchnevich Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Finley (3), Alexey Toropchenko (5)

    · ·

    STL 3·CAR 1

  7. 3rd·19:01

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Finley

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  8. 3rd·19:01

    Icing

    STL 2·CAR 1

  9. 3rd·18:54

    Jack Finley faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  10. 3rd·18:54

    Puck in Netting

    STL 2·CAR 1

  11. 3rd·18:52

    Nikolaj Ehlers shot blocked by Pavel Buchnevich

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  12. 3rd·18:48

    Giveaway by Philip Broberg

    STL 2·CAR 1

  13. 3rd·18:08

    Sebastian Aho Snap Shot saved by Jordan Binnington

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  14. 3rd·17:55

    Alexander Nikishin shot blocked by Dylan Holloway

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  15. 3rd·17:48

    Jordan Staal Tip-In saved by Jordan Binnington

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  16. 3rd·17:47

    Giveaway by Dylan Holloway

    STL 2·CAR 1

  17. 3rd·17:44

    Andrei Svechnikov shot blocked by Colton Parayko

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  18. 3rd·17:40

    Pius Suter faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  19. 3rd·17:40

    Puck in Netting

    STL 2·CAR 1

  20. 3rd·17:21

    Jack Finley faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  21. 3rd·17:21

    Goalie Stopped

    STL 2·CAR 1

  22. 3rd·17:18

    Seth Jarvis Snap Shot saved by Jordan Binnington

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  23. 3rd·17:15

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Jack Finley

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  24. 3rd·17:15

    Puck in Netting

    STL 2·CAR 1

  25. 3rd·17:13

    Logan Stankoven Tip-In Wide Right

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  26. 3rd·16:37

    Pavel Buchnevich Snap Shot saved by Brandon Bussi

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  27. 3rd·16:26

    Jack Finley hit Alexander Nikishin

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  28. 3rd·16:01

    Alexander Nikishin Snap Shot saved by Jordan Binnington

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  29. 3rd·16:00

    Mark Jankowski faceoff won against Jack Finley

    ·

    STL 2·CAR 1

  30. 3rd·16:00

    Icing

    STL 2·CAR 1

Team stats

STL

Away

Stat

CAR

Home

17

Shots

32

0.0

PCT

0.0

4

PIM

2

27

Faceoffs W

27

9

Blocks

12

16

Giveaways

11

5

Takeaways

7

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 5.5·STL +235/CAR -290

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 26 skaters with EDGE
  • Philip BrobergSTL · D
    BURSTS15898
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Jimmy SnuggerudSTL · RW
    SHOT MPH95.697
  • Taylor HallCAR · LW
    BURSTS4696
  • Sebastian AhoCAR · C
    DIST MI44.795

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CAR favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(CAR win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+235

Close price

+235

Open no-vig

28.6%

Close no-vig

28.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR