Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at VGK?

The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

How is the pick graded?

In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+4VGK

PIT

32-18-15

VGK

30-22-14

NHLThu, Mar 12FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasVGK -170

PIT · top performer

Rickard Rakell

RW · #67

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Pavel Dorofeyev

RW · #16

3Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	0	0	-2	1	1	0	0	14:03
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	0	1	4	1	0	0	20:32
C. DewarC · #19	0	0	-3	0	1	0	0	10:45
A. HayesRW · #85	0	0	-1	5	0	1	0	9:31
B. KindelC · #81	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:52
V. KoivunenRW · #41	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	14:47
B. LizotteC · #46	0	0	-3	0	1	2	0	10:21
A. ManthaRW · #39	0	1	-2	1	1	0	4	18:08
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	-3	0	0	0	2	16:43
R. RakellRW · #67	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	20:48
B. RustRW · #17	0	1	1	0	1	1	0	22:04
E. SoderblomLW · #25	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	13:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	-2	0	1	0	2	15:06
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	0	-3	4	0	1	0	26:26
K. LetangD · #58	0	0	0	1	1	2	2	23:51
R. SheaD · #5	0	2	1	1	0	2	0	19:16
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	12:55
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	18:42

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SilovsG · #37	16	5	11	.688	53:02

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	0	1	2	1	3	1	0	13:47
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	11:32
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	2	1	3	3	0	0	4	15:32
N. DowdC · #62	0	0	-1	0	2	0	0	12:44
J. EichelC · #9	1	1	2	2	0	1	0	19:51
T. HertlC · #48	0	0	3	1	1	2	0	17:07
B. HowdenC · #21	0	0	0	0	5	3	2	15:59
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	11:11
M. MarnerRW · #93	1	1	2	3	0	0	2	17:47
C. SissonsC · #10	1	0	0	1	2	3	0	12:57
C. SmithRW · #22	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	12:35
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	17:52

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	1	0	0	1	2	18:58
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	20:43
K. KorczakD · #6	0	1	1	0	1	0	2	12:51
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	1	0	2	2	0	16:41
B. McNabbD · #3	1	0	2	4	4	2	0	23:39
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	1	2	0	0	1	0	20:14

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. HillG · #33	26	2	24	.923	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

PIT

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 1

VGK0@

PIT5

Mar 13

PIT2@

VGK6today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

PIT+14241%

VGK-17063%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 32 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

VGK beat PIT 6-2. P. Dorofeyev led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
PIT	0	2	0	2
VGK	1	2	3	6

Period scoring

PIT won 0 · VGK won 2

PIT

VGK

Play-by-play · 320 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
PIT 2·VGK 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
PIT 2·VGK 6
3rd·19:17
Avery Hayes Wrist Shot Short
·
PIT 2·VGK 6
3rd·19:06
Jeremy Lauzon hit Avery Hayes
·
PIT 2·VGK 6
3rd·19:01
Connor Dewar faceoff won against Nic Dowd
·
PIT 2·VGK 6
3rd·19:01
Brayden McNabb Goal (3) Wrist Shot, assists: Jack Eichel (50)
·
PIT 2·VGK 6
3rd·18:51
Giveaway by Erik Karlsson
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·18:47
Takeaway by Erik Karlsson
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·18:44
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Ben Kindel
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·18:44
Icing
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·18:40
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot Wide Left
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·18:22
Giveaway by Jack Eichel
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·18:08
Giveaway by Shea Theodore
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·18:02
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·18:02
Off-side
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:45
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:45
Icing
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:29
Noah Hanifin shot blocked by Ben Kindel
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:17
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Anthony Mantha
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:17
Goalie Stopped
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:15
Erik Karlsson Wrist Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·17:02
Giveaway by Shea Theodore
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:54
Egor Chinakhov Snap Shot High and Wide Right
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:34
Brett Howden faceoff won against Noel Acciari
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:34
Goalie Stopped
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:32
Rickard Rakell Deflected saved by Adin Hill
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:28
Colton Sissons faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:28
Goalie Stopped
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:26
Erik Karlsson Slap Shot saved by Adin Hill
·
PIT 2·VGK 5
3rd·16:24
Giveaway by Brayden McNabb
PIT 2·VGK 5

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·PIT +142/VGK -170

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

egas Golden Knights held off Pittsburgh Penguins, 6–2.

VGK -1.5 cashed (won by 4). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

53.9%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
53.9%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
53.9%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
53.9%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+142

Close price

+142

Open no-vig

39.6%

Close no-vig

39.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Logged before tip · graded in public

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in PIT at VGK?: The model favors PIT, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.
How is the pick graded?: In public, the moment the game goes final — wins and losses alike, with the full record on the model accuracy page.

Team pages

Pittsburgh PenguinsVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL