Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at VGK?

The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1SEA

SEA

26-19-9

VGK

25-15-14

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesSEA leads series 2-0VegasVGK -192

SEA · top performer

Kaapo Kakko

RW · #84

1Points

—

SOG

VGK · top performer

Jack Eichel

C · #9

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BeniersC · #10	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:13
J. EberleRW · #7	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	18:28
F. GaudreauC · #89	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	14:42
K. KakkoRW · #84	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:35
T. KartyeLW · #12	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	10:32
J. McCannLW · #19	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	17:58
J. MelansonRW · #63	0	0	0	0	12	0	0	9:56
J. SchwartzC · #17	0	0	0	2	0	1	0	15:22
C. StephensonC · #9	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	18:01
E. TolvanenRW · #20	1	0	1	2	2	1	0	15:26
R. WintertonC · #26	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	13:05
S. WrightC · #51	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	13:46

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DunnD · #29	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	19:52
R. EvansD · #41	0	0	1	1	2	2	2	17:06
A. LarssonD · #6	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	22:13
R. LindgrenD · #55	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	19:34
B. MontourD · #62	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	21:12
J. OleksiakD · #24	0	0	-1	0	2	2	0	17:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DaccordG · #35	29	2	27	.931	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. BarbashevLW · #49	1	0	1	3	2	3	0	16:21
B. BowmanRW · #42	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	14:34
P. DorofeyevRW · #16	0	0	-1	0	1	0	2	16:20
J. EichelC · #9	0	2	1	5	0	2	0	21:59
T. HertlC · #48	0	1	-1	2	4	0	0	19:14
A. HoltzRW · #26	0	0	-1	0	3	1	0	10:05
K. KolesarRW · #55	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	15:29
M. MarnerRW · #93	1	0	-1	4	0	0	0	17:22
C. ReinhardtLW · #23	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:32
J. RondbjergRW · #46	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	13:41
R. SmithRW · #19	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	11:52
M. StoneRW · #61	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	18:42

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnderssonD · #4	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	20:55
N. HanifinD · #15	0	0	0	1	2	2	0	21:37
B. HuttonD · #17	0	1	1	2	0	1	0	15:29
K. KorczakD · #6	0	0	-1	0	3	0	0	14:48
J. LauzonD · #5	0	0	-2	1	4	2	0	17:43
S. TheodoreD · #27	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	22:44

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SchmidG · #40	22	3	19	.864	58:20

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

SEA

Away

Stat

VGK

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

SEA leads series 2-0

Oct 12

VGK1@

SEA2

Feb 1

SEA3@

VGK2today

Apr 10

VGK3@

SEA4

Apr 16

SEA1@

VGK4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

VGK -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SEA+16038%

VGK-19266%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗SpreadBet VGK -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

SEA beat VGK 3-2. K. Kakko led the way — 1 G · 2 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SEA	2	0	1	3
VGK	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

SEA won 2 · VGK won 1

SEA

VGK

Play-by-play · 285 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:57
Tomas Hertl shot blocked by Freddy Gaudreau
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:55
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:53
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:53
Goalie Stopped
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:50
Mitch Marner Slap Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:48
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:48
Goalie Stopped
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:46
Tomas Hertl Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:45
Mitch Marner shot blocked by Tomas Hertl
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:40
Tomas Hertl faceoff won against Freddy Gaudreau
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:40
Puck in Netting
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:38
Jack Eichel shot blocked by Freddy Gaudreau
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:29
Adam Larsson hit Mark Stone
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:14
Tomas Hertl Snap Shot High and Wide Left
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:05
Freddy Gaudreau faceoff won against Tomas Hertl
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:05
Goalie Stopped
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·19:02
Jack Eichel Wrist Shot saved by Joey Daccord
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·18:59
Mitch Marner Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·18:39
Jack Eichel faceoff won against Chandler Stephenson
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·18:39
Icing
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:44
Giveaway by Reilly Smith
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:26
Chandler Stephenson Tip-In Wide Left
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:06
Giveaway by Frederick Gaudreau
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·17:04
Giveaway by Ivan Barbashev
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·16:58
Jaden Schwartz Wrist Shot saved by Akira Schmid
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·16:50
Brandon Montour hit Keegan Kolesar
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·16:46
Rasmus Andersson shot blocked by Jaden Schwartz
·
SEA 3·VGK 2
3rd·16:45
Giveaway by Brandon Montour
SEA 3·VGK 2

Betting line

VGK -1.5·O/U 6.5·SEA +160/VGK -192

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

eattle Kraken went into Vegas Golden Knights and beat them, 3–2.

SEA +1.5 cashed (VGK lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

57.6%

ensemble · VGK favored

Elo Static
57.6%
P(VGK win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(VGK win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.6%
P(VGK win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in SEA at VGK?: The model favors SEA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Seattle KrakenVegas Golden Knights

Elsewhere in the NHL