Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at FLA?

The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WPG

WPG

22-25-7

FLA

28-23-3

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasFLA -148

WPG · top performer

Kyle Connor

LW · #81

1Points

—

SOG

FLA · top performer

Carter Verhaeghe

C · #23

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarronC · #36	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	10:45
K. ConnorLW · #81	0	1	1	5	1	0	0	24:04
A. IafalloLW · #9	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	13:11
C. KoepkeLW · #45	0	0	-1	0	2	0	2	7:57
A. LowryC · #17	0	1	1	1	1	1	0	12:18
V. NamestnikovC · #7	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	12:06
N. NiederreiterRW · #62	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	12:02
G. NyquistRW · #14	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	14:36
C. PerfettiC · #91	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	17:34
M. ScheifeleC · #55	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	25:26
J. ToewsC · #19	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:31
G. VilardiC · #13	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	19:08

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. DeMeloD · #2	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	21:03
J. MorrisseyD · #44	0	0	1	4	0	1	0	24:03
E. SalomonssonD · #57	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	15:54
D. SambergD · #54	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	18:52
L. SchennD · #5	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	13:57
L. StanleyD · #64	0	0	-1	0	3	4	2	18:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. ComrieG · #1	28	1	27	.964	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BennettC · #9	0	0	-1	3	0	0	2	18:18
J. BoqvistC · #70	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	12:27
A.J. GreerLW · #10	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	14:19
L. KuninC · #71	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	9:24
E. LuostarinenC · #27	1	0	0	2	3	2	0	16:41
S. ReinhartC · #13	0	0	-1	2	0	1	0	20:24
E. RodriguesC · #17	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	20:12
M. SamoskevichRW · #11	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	11:12
C. SchwindtRW · #79	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	9:58
M. TkachukLW · #19	0	0	-1	4	1	0	0	14:13
C. VerhaegheC · #23	0	0	-1	7	1	1	0	15:16
S. VilmanisLW · #95	0	0	0	0	2	1	2	11:14

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
U. BalinskisD · #26	0	0	-1	2	1	0	2	19:29
T. BjornfotD · #22	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	12:12
A. EkbladD · #5	0	0	1	2	0	1	2	21:45
G. ForslingD · #42	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	24:27
N. MikkolaD · #77	0	0	-1	1	9	0	0	21:10
J. PetryD · #2	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	18:12

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. BobrovskyG · #72	21	2	19	.905	59:11

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

WPG

Away

Stat

FLA

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Jan 23

FLA2@

WPG1

Jan 31

WPG2@

FLA1today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

FLA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

WPG+12445%

FLA-14860%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗SpreadBet FLA -1.5↗

Line movement · 27 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WPG beat FLA 2-1. K. Connor led the way — 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
WPG	0	0	2	2
FLA	1	0	0	1

Period scoring

WPG won 1 · FLA won 1

WPG

FLA

Play-by-play · 279 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·19:58
Sam Bennett Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·19:53
Sam Bennett Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·19:46
Uvis Balinskis shot blocked by Adam Lowry
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·19:30
Sam Reinhart Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·19:22
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·19:22
Goalie Stopped
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·19:19
Matthew Tkachuk Wrist Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·18:21
Gabriel Vilardi shot blocked by Eetu Luostarinen
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:52
Niko Mikkola hit Kyle Connor
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:47
Kyle Connor hit Eetu Luostarinen
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:15
Sam Bennett faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:15
Puck in Netting
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:12
Kyle Connor Slap Shot saved by Sergei Bobrovsky
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:00
Mark Scheifele faceoff won against Sam Bennett
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·17:00
Aaron Ekblad Slashing against Morgan Barron
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:58
Morgan Barron Backhand Hit Right Post
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:47
Cole Schwindt Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:32
Cole Schwindt faceoff won against Mark Scheifele
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:32
Puck in Netting
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:15
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Cole Schwindt
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:15
Goalie Stopped
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·16:13
Aaron Ekblad Snap Shot saved by Eric Comrie
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·15:46
Adam Lowry faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues
·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·15:46
Mark Scheifele Goal (27) Wrist Shot, assists: Kyle Connor (38), Gustav Nyquist (9)
· ·
WPG 2·FLA 1
3rd·14:57
Dylan DeMelo hit Eetu Luostarinen
·
WPG 1·FLA 1
3rd·14:51
Jonathan Toews faceoff won against Evan Rodrigues
·
WPG 1·FLA 1
3rd·14:51
Icing
WPG 1·FLA 1
3rd·14:42
Gustav Forsling hit Cole Perfetti
·
WPG 1·FLA 1

Betting line

FLA -1.5·O/U 5.5·WPG +124/FLA -148

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

innipeg Jets went into Florida Panthers and beat them, 2–1.

WPG +1.5 cashed (FLA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 2.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Kyle Connor · WPG24:180.5359.5%67.4%24:18 TOI · 0.53 iXG · 59.5% CF · 67.4% xGF
Cole Perfetti · WPG17:360.4862.5%64.4%17:36 TOI · 0.48 iXG · 62.5% CF · 64.4% xGF
Carter Verhaeghe · FLA15:240.4079.3%74.1%15:24 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 79.3% CF · 74.1% xGF
Matthew Tkachuk · FLA14:240.4080.8%70.9%14:24 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 80.8% CF · 70.9% xGF
Gabriel Vilardi · WPG19:180.2860.0%65.4%19:18 TOI · 0.28 iXG · 60.0% CF · 65.4% xGF
Sam Bennett · FLA18:180.2569.7%63.6%18:18 TOI · 0.25 iXG · 69.7% CF · 63.6% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Eric Comrie · WPG27–1.964+1.0927–1 · .964 SV% · +1.09 GSAx
Sergei Bobrovsky · FLA19–2.905+0.4019–2 · .905 SV% · +0.40 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.7%

ensemble · FLA favored

Elo Static
63.7%
P(FLA win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.7%
P(FLA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.7%
P(FLA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-148

Close price

-148

Open no-vig

57.2%

Close no-vig

57.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in WPG at FLA?: The model favors FLA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Winnipeg JetsFlorida Panthers

Elsewhere in the NHL