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FINAL+2MTL
MTL

MTL

31-17-7

42
BUF

BUF

31-18-5

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBUF -125

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 4–2.

MTL +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

MTL · top performer

MTL
Cole Caufield

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

BUF
Noah Ostlund

Noah Ostlund

C · #86

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
4
2
MTL31-17-7BUF31-18-5
MTL

MTL

31-17-7

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
BUF

BUF

31-18-5

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

6

Playoff series

May 6MTLMTL2@BUFBUF4
May 8MTLMTL5@BUFBUF1
May 10BUFBUF2@MTLMTL6
May 12BUFBUF3@MTLMTL2
May 14MTLMTL6@BUFBUF3
May 17BUFBUF8@MTLMTL3
May 18MTLMTL3@BUFBUF2

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTLMTL+10549%
BUFBUF-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat BUF 4-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
MTL1034
BUF0202

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · BUF won 1

1
0

1

0
2

2

3
0

3

MTL
BUF

Play-by-play · 338 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  3. 3rd·19:58

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  4. 3rd·19:58

    Icing

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  5. 3rd·19:54

    Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  6. 3rd·19:47

    Jason Zucker Deflected Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  7. 3rd·19:45

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  8. 3rd·19:45

    Icing

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  9. 3rd·19:39

    Mike Matheson Wrist Shot Wide Right

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  10. 3rd·19:22

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  11. 3rd·19:22

    Icing

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  12. 3rd·19:12

    Jake Evans faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  13. 3rd·19:12

    Oliver Kapanen Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (25)

    ·

    MTL 4·BUF 2

  14. 3rd·19:03

    Kaiden Guhle hit Owen Power

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  15. 3rd·18:28

    Zach Benson Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  16. 3rd·18:07

    Phillip Danault faceoff won against Ryan McLeod

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  17. 3rd·18:07

    Puck in Netting

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  18. 3rd·18:05

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Jake Evans

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  19. 3rd·17:26

    Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Tage Thompson

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  20. 3rd·17:26

    Net Dislodged by Goaltender

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  21. 3rd·17:23

    Tage Thompson Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  22. 3rd·17:13

    Tage Thompson Snap Shot Off Crossbar

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  23. 3rd·16:34

    Jack Quinn Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  24. 3rd·16:24

    Tage Thompson faceoff won against Phillip Danault

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  25. 3rd·16:24

    TV Timeout

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  26. 3rd·16:24

    Kirby Dach Holding against Bowen Byram

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  27. 3rd·16:21

    Bowen Byram Backhand Wide Right

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  28. 3rd·16:19

    Tage Thompson shot blocked by Mike Matheson

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  29. 3rd·16:02

    Giveaway by Kirby Dach

    MTL 3·BUF 2

  30. 3rd·15:43

    Bowen Byram Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes

    ·

    MTL 3·BUF 2

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

31

Shots

38

33.3

PCT

25.0

8

PIM

6

40

Faceoffs W

17

20

Blocks

7

13

Giveaways

16

5

Takeaways

4

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +105/BUF -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • Lane HutsonMTL · D
    DIST MI71.899+
  • Josh AndersonMTL · RW
    BURSTS7699+
  • Mike MathesonMTL · D
    DIST MI62.999
  • Cole CaufieldMTL · RW
    DIST MI56.699
  • Ryan McLeodBUF · C
    BURSTS7299

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · BUF favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(BUF win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR