Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at BUF?

The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2MTL

MTL

31-17-7

BUF

31-18-5

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriestied 2-2VegasBUF -125

MTL · top performer

Cole Caufield

RW · #13

3Points

—

SOG

BUF · top performer

Owen Power

D · #25

1Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AndersonRW · #17	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	12:11
Z. BolducRW · #76	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	10:10
C. CaufieldRW · #13	2	1	2	5	3	1	0	15:39
K. DachC · #77	0	1	2	1	2	1	2	12:29
P. DanaultC · #24	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	18:13
I. DemidovRW · #93	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	16:49
J. EvansC · #71	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	16:33
B. GallagherRW · #11	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	10:18
O. KapanenC · #91	1	0	1	2	1	2	0	17:28
J. SlafkovskyLW · #20	1	0	1	7	2	0	0	17:26
N. SuzukiC · #14	0	2	3	2	0	1	0	18:52
J. VelenoC · #90	0	0	-1	0	2	1	0	10:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CarrierD · #45	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	20:28
N. DobsonD · #53	0	2	3	4	2	2	2	20:32
K. GuhleD · #21	0	0	2	0	3	4	0	19:29
L. HutsonD · #48	0	1	1	2	0	1	4	20:10
M. MathesonD · #8	0	0	-1	2	0	4	0	27:33
A. XhekajD · #72	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	7:09

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DobesG · #75	38	2	36	.947	59:58

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BensonLW · #6	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	20:45
J. DoanRW · #91	0	0	-1	3	4	0	0	17:22
K. HeleniusC · #94	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	9:54
T. KozakC · #48	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	6:49
P. KrebsC · #19	0	0	-1	0	1	0	0	9:38
B. MalenstynLW · #29	0	0	0	1	3	2	0	8:46
R. McLeodC · #71	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	17:38
N. OstlundC · #86	1	0	-2	1	0	0	0	13:18
J. QuinnRW · #22	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	17:28
T. ThompsonC · #72	0	1	1	5	1	0	2	22:21
A. TuchRW · #89	0	1	0	1	1	0	0	22:29
J. ZuckerLW · #17	0	0	-1	4	2	0	0	18:40

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. ByramD · #4	0	1	-2	1	0	1	2	20:19
R. DahlinD · #26	0	1	0	4	3	1	0	26:03
M. KesselringD · #8	0	0	-2	0	0	1	0	8:53
Z. MetsaD · #73	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	10:46
O. PowerD · #25	1	0	0	6	0	2	0	24:00
M. SamuelssonD · #23	0	0	0	2	6	0	0	21:48

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. LyonG · #34	30	3	27	.900	57:43

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

MTL

Away

Stat

BUF

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Playoff series

May 6

MTL2@

BUF4

May 8

MTL5@

BUF1

May 10

BUF2@

MTL6

May 12

BUF3@

MTL2

May 14

MTL6@

BUF3

May 17

BUF8@

MTL3

May 18

MTL3@

BUF2

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

BUF -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

MTL+10549%

BUF-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗SpreadBet BUF -1.5↗

Line movement · 26 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

MTL beat BUF 4-2. C. Caufield led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
MTL	1	0	3	4
BUF	0	2	0	2

Period scoring

MTL won 2 · BUF won 1

MTL

BUF

Play-by-play · 338 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:58
Jake Evans faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:58
Icing
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:54
Juraj Slafkovský Wrist Shot Wide Right
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:47
Jason Zucker Deflected Wide Right
·
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:45
Jake Evans faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:45
Icing
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:39
Mike Matheson Wrist Shot Wide Right
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:22
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:22
Icing
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:12
Jake Evans faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:12
Oliver Kapanen Goal (17) Wrist Shot, assists: Noah Dobson (25)
·
MTL 4·BUF 2
3rd·19:03
Kaiden Guhle hit Owen Power
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·18:28
Zach Benson Wrist Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·18:07
Phillip Danault faceoff won against Ryan McLeod
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·18:07
Puck in Netting
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·18:05
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Jake Evans
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·17:26
Nick Suzuki faceoff won against Tage Thompson
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·17:26
Net Dislodged by Goaltender
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·17:23
Tage Thompson Slap Shot Wide Right
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·17:13
Tage Thompson Snap Shot Off Crossbar
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·16:34
Jack Quinn Slap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·16:24
Tage Thompson faceoff won against Phillip Danault
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·16:24
TV Timeout
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·16:24
Kirby Dach Holding against Bowen Byram
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·16:21
Bowen Byram Backhand Wide Right
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·16:19
Tage Thompson shot blocked by Mike Matheson
·
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·16:02
Giveaway by Kirby Dach
MTL 3·BUF 2
3rd·15:43
Bowen Byram Snap Shot saved by Jakub Dobes
·
MTL 3·BUF 2

Betting line

BUF -1.5·O/U 6.5·MTL +105/BUF -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ontreal Canadiens went into Buffalo Sabres and beat them, 4–2.

MTL +1.5 cashed (BUF lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

60.4%

ensemble · BUF favored

Elo Static
60.4%
P(BUF win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
60.4%
P(BUF win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
60.4%
P(BUF win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in MTL at BUF?: The model favors BUF, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Montreal CanadiensBuffalo Sabres

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