NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1PIT

NYR

22-28-6

PIT

28-14-11

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesPIT leads series 2-1VegasPIT -205

NYR · top performer

Alexis Lafreniere

LW · #13

3Points

—

SOG

PIT · top performer

Rickard Rakell

RW · #67

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrodzinskiC · #22	0	1	-1	0	1	0	2	9:37
S. CarrickC · #39	0	0	-2	1	1	0	2	14:34
W. CuylleLW · #50	1	0	1	3	5	1	2	20:02
N. LabaC · #42	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	2:34
A. LafreniereLW · #13	2	1	1	4	1	0	0	17:59
J.T. MillerLW · #8	0	1	-1	2	2	0	0	22:09
B. OthmannLW · #78	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	9:16
G. PerreaultRW · #94	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	14:58
T. RaddyshRW · #14	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	11:09
M. RempeC · #73	0	0	-1	0	4	0	0	7:46
V. TrocheckC · #16	1	2	3	1	3	0	0	22:40
M. ZibanejadC · #93	0	1	-1	0	1	2	0	22:47

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BorgenD · #17	0	0	-1	1	1	2	2	20:24
V. GavrikovD · #44	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	22:29
S. MorrowD · #60	0	0	-2	1	0	1	2	14:49
M. RobertsonD · #29	0	1	-1	0	1	2	2	22:41
B. SchneiderD · #4	0	1	2	1	1	1	0	20:24
U. VaakanainenD · #18	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	13:38

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuickG · #32	33	5	28	.848	58:44

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. AcciariC · #55	2	0	1	2	1	0	0	11:40
J. BrazeauRW · #16	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	12:34
E. ChinakhovRW · #59	0	0	-1	4	1	2	0	15:57
S. CrosbyC · #87	0	1	-1	3	2	1	0	21:05
C. DewarC · #19	0	2	3	0	4	0	0	13:04
B. KindelC · #81	1	0	1	5	0	0	0	14:49
B. LizotteC · #46	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	14:00
E. MalkinC · #71	0	1	-1	2	1	0	0	19:03
A. ManthaRW · #39	2	0	1	2	0	0	2	16:37
R. McGroartyRW · #2	0	1	0	1	0	0	2	9:31
T. NovakC · #18	0	0	-1	0	0	0	0	15:07
R. RakellRW · #67	1	1	-1	5	1	1	0	19:55

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CliftonD · #75	0	0	1	0	3	4	0	17:26
E. KarlssonD · #65	0	1	-1	3	0	0	0	23:53
B. KulakD · #77	0	1	1	3	0	1	0	17:08
R. SheaD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	20:13
I. SolovyovD · #7	0	0	2	0	1	2	2	13:27
P. WotherspoonD · #28	0	0	-2	2	1	0	0	18:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. SkinnerG · #74	20	5	15	.750	59:45

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NYR

Away

Stat

PIT

Home

Shots

33.3

PCT

20.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

PIT leads series 2-1

Oct 8

PIT3@

NYR0

Oct 11

NYR6@

PIT1

Jan 31

NYR5@

PIT6today

Feb 28

PIT2@

NYR3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NYR+17037%

PIT-20567%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗SpreadBet PIT -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

PIT beat NYR 6-5. R. Rakell led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NYR	0	1	4	5
PIT	2	1	3	6

Period scoring

NYR won 1 · PIT won 1

NYR

PIT

Play-by-play · 325 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NYR 5·PIT 6
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NYR 5·PIT 6
3rd·19:56
Noel Acciari faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 5·PIT 6
3rd·19:56
Icing
NYR 5·PIT 6
3rd·19:52
Connor Dewar Wrist Shot Wide Right
NYR 5·PIT 6
3rd·19:49
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
NYR 5·PIT 6
3rd·19:49
Will Cuylle Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (24), Alexis Lafrenière (20)
· ·
NYR 5·PIT 6
3rd·19:47
Vincent Trocheck Tip-In Wide Left
·
NYR 4·PIT 6
3rd·19:33
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
NYR 4·PIT 6
3rd·19:33
Icing
NYR 4·PIT 6
3rd·19:17
J.T. Miller Slap Shot Wide Right
·
NYR 4·PIT 6
3rd·19:11
Parker Wotherspoon hit J.T. Miller
·
NYR 4·PIT 6
3rd·18:53
Vincent Trocheck faceoff won against Sidney Crosby
·
NYR 4·PIT 6
3rd·18:53
Timeout - Visitor
NYR 4·PIT 6
3rd·18:53
Alexis Lafrenière Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Vincent Trocheck (23), Matthew Robertson (7)
· ·
NYR 4·PIT 6
3rd·18:32
Will Cuylle hit Evgeni Malkin
·
NYR 3·PIT 6
3rd·18:03
Scott Morrow shot blocked by Connor Clifton
·
NYR 3·PIT 6
3rd·17:59
Sam Carrick shot blocked by Ilya Solovyov
·
NYR 3·PIT 6
3rd·17:39
Matt Rempe hit Ilya Solovyov
·
NYR 3·PIT 6
3rd·17:32
Sam Carrick faceoff won against Blake Lizotte
·
NYR 3·PIT 6
3rd·17:32
Puck in Benches
NYR 3·PIT 6
3rd·17:28
Blake Lizotte faceoff won against Sam Carrick
·
NYR 3·PIT 6
3rd·17:28
Ben Kindel Goal (12) Wrist Shot, assists: Connor Dewar (10), Stuart Skinner (1)
· ·
NYR 3·PIT 6
3rd·16:52
Takeaway by Sidney Crosby
NYR 3·PIT 5
3rd·16:43
Sidney Crosby faceoff won against Vincent Trocheck
·
NYR 3·PIT 5
3rd·16:43
Puck in Crowd
NYR 3·PIT 5
3rd·16:26
Egor Chinakhov Slap Shot High and Wide Right
·
NYR 3·PIT 5
3rd·16:23
Alexis Lafrenière hit Thomas Novak
·
NYR 3·PIT 5
3rd·16:21
Giveaway by Matthew Robertson
NYR 3·PIT 5
3rd·16:02
Will Borgen hit Evgeni Malkin
·
NYR 3·PIT 5

Betting line

PIT -1.5·O/U 6.5·NYR +170/PIT -205

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ittsburgh Penguins held off New York Rangers, 6–5.

NYR +1.5 cashed (PIT won by 1). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 4.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Rickard Rakell · PIT20:060.8967.6%72.7%20:06 TOI · 0.89 iXG · 67.6% CF · 72.7% xGF
Ben Kindel · PIT14:480.5769.0%67.2%14:48 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 69.0% CF · 67.2% xGF
Will Cuylle · NYR20:240.5747.2%46.7%20:24 TOI · 0.57 iXG · 47.2% CF · 46.7% xGF
Egor Chinakhov · PIT15:540.5662.5%69.9%15:54 TOI · 0.56 iXG · 62.5% CF · 69.9% xGF
Evgeni Malkin · PIT19:180.3973.0%85.9%19:18 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 73.0% CF · 85.9% xGF
Sidney Crosby · PIT21:060.3668.6%73.5%21:06 TOI · 0.36 iXG · 68.6% CF · 73.5% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Jonathan Quick · NYR28–5.848-1.6228–5 · .848 SV% · -1.62 GSAx
Stuart Skinner · PIT15–5.750-3.1315–5 · .750 SV% · -3.13 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

63.8%

ensemble · PIT favored

Elo Static
63.8%
P(PIT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
63.8%
P(PIT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
63.8%
P(PIT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

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