Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at NYI?

The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1NSH

NSH

25-23-6

NYI

30-20-5

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesNSH wins series 2-0VegasNYI -125

NSH · top performer

Filip Forsberg

LW · #9

2Points

—

SOG

NYI · top performer

Mathew Barzal

C · #13

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BuntingLW · #58	0	0	-1	5	0	1	0	15:20
L. EvangelistaRW · #77	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	17:15
F. ForsbergLW · #9	2	0	1	4	1	0	0	16:58
E. HaulaLW · #56	0	1	0	3	0	1	0	17:14
T. JostC · #17	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	9:31
J. MarchessaultRW · #81	0	1	0	5	2	0	12	12:17
M. McCarronC · #47	0	0	0	2	4	0	2	15:59
R. O'ReillyC · #90	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	19:05
C. SmithRW · #36	0	0	0	0	5	1	2	15:24
S. StamkosC · #91	0	1	1	1	2	0	0	15:15
O. WiesblattC · #89	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	11:08
M. WoodRW · #71	1	1	0	2	0	1	0	8:02

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarronD · #20	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:43
A. EnglundD · #8	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	12:31
R. JosiD · #59	1	1	1	5	2	1	0	29:15
N. PerbixD · #48	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:49
B. SkjeiD · #76	0	0	0	4	2	0	0	27:39
A. WilsbyD · #83	0	1	0	3	1	0	2	18:35

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SarosG · #74	30	3	27	.900	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BarzalC · #13	1	1	0	3	1	1	0	19:04
C. CizikasC · #53	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	10:37
A. DuclairLW · #11	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	16:07
M. GatcombC · #16	0	0	0	0	5	1	0	8:52
E. HeinemanLW · #51	0	0	-1	3	3	0	0	19:13
S. HolmstromRW · #10	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	16:45
B. HorvatC · #14	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	20:18
A. LeeLW · #27	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	13:44
K. MacLeanC · #32	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	10:00
J. PageauC · #44	1	0	0	2	0	1	0	13:21
O. PalatLW · #81	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	17:31
M. ShabanovRW · #49	0	0	1	4	1	1	0	14:12

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. DeAngeloD · #77	0	1	0	0	1	1	0	22:36
S. MayfieldD · #24	0	0	-1	0	1	1	2	15:15
A. PelechD · #3	0	0	2	0	1	3	4	19:18
R. PulockD · #6	0	1	1	2	1	0	0	19:16
M. SchaeferD · #48	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	23:25
C. SoucyD · #4	0	0	-2	0	3	0	0	15:30

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. SorokinG · #30	42	4	38	.905	58:50

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

NSH

Away

Stat

NYI

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

NSH wins series 2-0

Jan 9

NYI1@

NSH2

Feb 1

NSH4@

NYI3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

NYI -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NSH+10549%

NYI-12556%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗SpreadBet NYI -1.5↗

Line movement · 22 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

NSH beat NYI 4-3. F. Forsberg led the way — 2 G · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NSH	2	1	1	4
NYI	2	1	0	3

Period scoring

NSH won 1 · NYI won 0

NSH

NYI

Play-by-play · 319 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NSH 4·NYI 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NSH 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:49
Emil Heineman Snap Shot saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:47
Ondrej Palat shot blocked by Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 4·NYI 3
3rd·19:46
Mathew Barzal Backhand saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 4·NYI 3
3rd·18:46
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Michael McCarron
·
NSH 4·NYI 3
3rd·18:46
Timeout - Home
NSH 4·NYI 3
3rd·18:46
Roman Josi Goal (10) Wrist Shot, assists: Adam Wilsby (9), Erik Haula (18)
· ·
NSH 4·NYI 3
3rd·18:10
Steven Stamkos faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·18:10
Off-side
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:49
Bo Horvat faceoff won against Ryan O'Reilly
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:49
TV Timeout
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:49
Cole Smith Roughing against Adam Pelech
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:49
Adam Pelech Interference against Cole Smith
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:49
Puck in Netting
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:45
Roman Josi shot blocked by Jean-Gabriel Pageau
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:14
Kyle MacLean hit Ozzy Wiesblatt
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·17:00
Kyle MacLean hit Ozzy Wiesblatt
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·16:24
Giveaway by Tony DeAngelo
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·16:13
Giveaway by Anthony Duclair
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·15:42
Michael Bunting Snap Shot Hit Left Post
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·15:38
Steven Stamkos Deflected saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·15:34
Giveaway by Scott Mayfield
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·14:39
Marc Gatcomb hit Michael McCarron
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·13:27
Erik Haula faceoff won against Bo Horvat
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·13:27
Goalie Stopped
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·13:24
Ryan O'Reilly Snap Shot saved by Ilya Sorokin
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·12:19
Michael McCarron faceoff won against Anders Lee
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·12:19
Adam Wilsby Tripping against Bo Horvat
·
NSH 3·NYI 3
3rd·12:17
Bo Horvat Backhand saved by Juuse Saros
·
NSH 3·NYI 3

Betting line

NYI -1.5·O/U 5.5·NSH +105/NYI -125

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashville Predators went into New York Islanders and beat them, 4–3.

NSH +1.5 cashed (NYI lost outright). Total cleared the 5.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

62.3%

ensemble · NYI favored

Elo Static
62.3%
P(NYI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
62.3%
P(NYI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
62.3%
P(NYI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-125

Close price

-125

Open no-vig

53.2%

Close no-vig

53.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NSH at NYI?: The model favors NYI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Nashville PredatorsNew York Islanders

Elsewhere in the NHL