Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at PHI?

The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1LA

23-17-13

PHI

24-20-10

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesLA leads series 1-0VegasLA -112

LA · top performer

Adrian Kempe

RW · #9

3Points

—

SOG

PHI · top performer

Travis Konecny

RW · #11

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ArmiaRW · #40	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	16:24
Q. ByfieldRW · #55	1	0	1	2	1	0	0	18:48
K. FialaLW · #22	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	16:22
S. HeleniusC · #79	0	0	0	3	6	2	0	11:07
A. KempeRW · #9	2	1	3	3	1	0	0	18:36
A. KopitarC · #11	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:13
A. KuzmenkoLW · #96	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	12:09
A. LaferriereRW · #14	0	1	2	2	2	0	0	18:35
J. MalottLW · #39	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	11:20
T. MooreLW · #12	0	0	-1	1	3	0	0	15:32
C. PerryRW · #10	0	2	2	2	2	0	0	17:34
T. WardRW · #52	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	13:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AndersonD · #44	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	18:25
C. CeciD · #5	0	0	1	1	0	2	2	17:21
B. ClarkeD · #92	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	23:04
D. DoughtyD · #8	0	1	1	2	0	0	2	23:25
B. DumoulinD · #2	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	16:26
J. EdmundsonD · #6	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	20:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KuemperG · #35	21	2	19	.905	62:48

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BarkeyC · #52	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	13:17
B. BrinkRW · #10	0	1	-1	4	0	0	0	15:41
N. CatesLW · #27	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	15:21
S. CouturierC · #14	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	16:29
N. DeslauriersLW · #44	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	9:27
C. DvorakC · #22	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	23:12
N. GrebenkinRW · #29	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	13:07
G. HathawayRW · #19	0	0	0	1	3	1	0	9:02
T. KonecnyRW · #11	1	1	0	3	5	0	0	23:59
M. MichkovRW · #39	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:21
O. TippettRW · #74	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	16:04
T. ZegrasC · #46	1	0	-2	2	2	0	0	18:44

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. DrysdaleD · #9	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	24:16
N. JuulsenD · #47	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	11:29
R. RistolainenD · #55	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	22:23
T. SanheimD · #6	0	0	0	1	0	3	0	24:56
N. SeelerD · #24	0	0	0	2	3	1	0	13:46
C. YorkD · #8	0	0	-1	2	0	2	0	22:50

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. VladarG · #80	21	3	18	.857	62:48

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

PHI

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

50.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

LA leads series 1-0

Jan 31

LA3@

PHI2today

Mar 20

PHI4@

LA3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

LA-11253%

PHI-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LA -1.5↗SpreadBet LA -1.5↗

Line movement · 16 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

LA beat PHI 3-2. A. Kempe led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
LA	2	0	0	1	3
PHI	0	1	1	0	2

Period scoring

LA won 2 · PHI won 2

PHI

Play-by-play · 334 plays

period

event

player

OT·2:48
Game End
LA 3·PHI 2
OT·2:48
End of OT
LA 3·PHI 2
OT·2:48
Quinton Byfield Goal (10) Snap Shot, assists: Adrian Kempe (24), Drew Doughty (11)
· ·
LA 3·PHI 2
OT·1:30
Travis Konecny Wrist Shot Hit Right Post
·
LA 2·PHI 2
OT·1:19
Brandt Clarke shot blocked by Christian Dvorak
·
LA 2·PHI 2
OT·0:00
Adrian Kempe faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
LA 2·PHI 2
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·19:57
Alex Laferriere shot blocked by Joel Edmundson
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·19:41
Alex Laferriere faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·19:41
Off-side
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·19:22
Trevor Moore Snap Shot Wide Left
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·19:20
Trevor Moore hit Cam York
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·19:07
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Sean Couturier
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·19:07
Icing
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·18:54
Owen Tippett hit Drew Doughty
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·18:46
Giveaway by Taylor Ward
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·17:55
Adrian Kempe faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·17:55
Puck in Benches
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·17:35
Christian Dvorak faceoff won against Adrian Kempe
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·17:35
On-Ice Official
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·17:17
Anze Kopitar Wrist Shot saved by Dan Vladar
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·16:51
Trevor Moore Backhand saved by Dan Vladar
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·16:11
Brian Dumoulin shot blocked by Travis Sanheim
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·15:54
Christian Dvorak Tip-In Wide Left
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·15:26
Anze Kopitar faceoff won against Christian Dvorak
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·15:26
Goalie Stopped
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·15:24
Nick Seeler Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·15:08
Sean Couturier Wrist Shot saved by Darcy Kuemper
·
LA 2·PHI 2
3rd·14:50
Giveaway by Trevor Zegras
LA 2·PHI 2

Betting line

LA -1.5·O/U 5.5·LA -112/PHI -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

os Angeles Kings went into Philadelphia Flyers and beat them, 3–2 in overtime.

PHI +1.5 cashed (LA won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Bobby Brink · MIN15:480.4760.0%77.2%15:48 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 60.0% CF · 77.2% xGF
Travis Konecny · PHI24:180.4752.5%56.1%24:18 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 52.5% CF · 56.1% xGF
Adrian Kempe · LAK18:480.4262.9%60.1%18:48 TOI · 0.42 iXG · 62.9% CF · 60.1% xGF
Alex Laferriere · LAK18:420.4056.7%49.0%18:42 TOI · 0.40 iXG · 56.7% CF · 49.0% xGF
Matvei Michkov · PHI10:240.3963.2%77.2%10:24 TOI · 0.39 iXG · 63.2% CF · 77.2% xGF
Corey Perry · TBL17:480.3462.2%60.1%17:48 TOI · 0.34 iXG · 62.2% CF · 60.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Darcy Kuemper · LAK19–2.905+0.1619–2 · .905 SV% · +0.16 GSAx
Dan Vladar · PHI18–3.857-0.8518–3 · .857 SV% · -0.85 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

45.2%

ensemble · LA favored

Elo Static
57.0%
P(PHI win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
57.0%
P(PHI win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
57.0%
P(PHI win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-108

Close price

-108

Open no-vig

49.6%

Close no-vig

49.6%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in LA at PHI?: The model favors PHI, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Los Angeles KingsPhiladelphia Flyers

Elsewhere in the NHL