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FINAL+3OTT
NJ

NJ

28-25-2

14
OTT

OTT

26-21-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasOTT -162

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off New Jersey Devils, 4–1.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NJ · top performer

NJ
Connor Brown

Connor Brown

RW · #16

1Points

0

G

1

A

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

OTT
Brady Tkachuk

Brady Tkachuk

LW · #7

3Points

1

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
1
4
NJ28-25-2OTT26-21-7
NJ

NJ

28-25-2

1
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
OTT

OTT

26-21-7

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

12

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 10NJNJ4@OTTOTT3
Feb 1NJNJ1@OTTOTT4today
Apr 12OTTOTT3@NJNJ4

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJNJ+13642%
OTTOTT-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 9 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat NJ 4-1.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
NJ1001
OTT1034

Period scoring

NJ won 0 · OTT won 1

1
1

1

0
0

2

0
3

3

NJ
OTT

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  3. 3rd·19:44

    Paul Cotter faceoff won against Dylan Cozens

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  4. 3rd·19:44

    Puck in Netting

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  5. 3rd·19:42

    Paul Cotter shot blocked by Nick Jensen

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  6. 3rd·19:15

    Jordan Spence hit Evgenii Dadonov

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  7. 3rd·19:13

    Evgenii Dadonov Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  8. 3rd·18:54

    Lars Eller faceoff won against Paul Cotter

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  9. 3rd·18:54

    Puck in Benches

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  10. 3rd·18:45

    Giveaway by Tyler Kleven

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  11. 3rd·18:41

    Tim Stützle faceoff won against Paul Cotter

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  12. 3rd·18:41

    Shane Pinto Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (13), Jake Sanderson (34)

    · ·

    NJ 1·OTT 4

  13. 3rd·17:53

    Ridly Greig faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 3

  14. 3rd·17:53

    Tim Stützle Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (22), Claude Giroux (28)

    · ·

    NJ 1·OTT 3

  15. 3rd·17:25

    Dawson Mercer Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  16. 3rd·17:22

    Cody Glass faceoff won against Tim Stützle

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  17. 3rd·17:22

    Puck in Netting

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  18. 3rd·17:21

    Jesper Bratt shot blocked by Lars Eller

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  19. 3rd·16:26

    Nico Hischier faceoff won against Lars Eller

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  20. 3rd·16:26

    Goalie Stopped

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  21. 3rd·16:24

    Timo Meier Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  22. 3rd·16:02

    Shane Pinto faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  23. 3rd·16:02

    Video Review

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  24. 3rd·16:01

    Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by Timo Meier

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  25. 3rd·15:31

    Nico Hischier shot blocked by Artem Zub

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  26. 3rd·15:00

    Claude Giroux faceoff won against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  27. 3rd·15:00

    Tyler Kleven Interference against Nico Hischier

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  28. 3rd·14:26

    Tim Stützle shot blocked by Cody Glass

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  29. 3rd·14:25

    Tyler Kleven Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

  30. 3rd·14:17

    Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by Timo Meier

    ·

    NJ 1·OTT 2

Team stats

NJ

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

27

Shots

34

0.0

PCT

66.7

8

PIM

12

38

Faceoffs W

29

10

Blocks

19

17

Giveaways

17

5

Takeaways

7

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·NJ +136/OTT -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 15 skaters with EDGE
  • Nick JensenOTT · D
    SKATE MPH22.785
  • Dylan CozensOTT · C
    SKATE MPH22.784
  • Jake SandersonOTT · D
    SHOT MPH94.282
  • Claude GirouxOTT · RW
    SHOT MPH87.082
  • Luke GlendeningPHI · C
    SKATE MPH22.582

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.6%

ensemble · OTT favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(OTT win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR