Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at OTT?

The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+3OTT

28-25-2

OTT

26-21-7

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasOTT -162

NJ · top performer

Timo Meier

RW · #28

1Points

—

SOG

OTT · top performer

Tim Stutzle

C · #18

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BrattLW · #63	0	0	-1	2	2	0	0	20:13
C. BrownRW · #16	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	22:37
P. CotterLW · #47	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:40
E. DadonovLW · #33	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	14:15
C. GlassC · #12	0	1	0	3	1	2	0	15:18
L. GlendeningC · #14	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	5:44
A. GritsyukRW · #81	0	0	-1	1	2	0	0	17:03
L. HameenahoRW · #29	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	12:56
N. HischierC · #13	0	0	-1	3	0	0	0	22:27
T. MeierRW · #28	1	0	0	3	5	0	0	22:25
D. MercerC · #91	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	16:00
M. TsyplakovRW · #42	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	7:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. DillonD · #5	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	13:20
D. HamiltonD · #7	0	0	0	7	1	0	0	24:58
J. KovacevicD · #8	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	15:20
S. NemecD · #17	0	0	-1	0	1	1	0	19:25
B. PesceD · #22	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	18:29
J. SiegenthalerD · #71	0	0	0	0	1	2	2	18:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. AllenG · #34	33	3	30	.909	59:17

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AmadioRW · #22	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	20:25
D. BathersonRW · #19	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	14:53
N. CousinsC · #21	0	0	0	3	2	2	0	14:16
D. CozensC · #24	1	0	-1	2	2	0	4	14:04
L. EllerC · #89	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	9:25
C. GirouxRW · #28	0	1	1	1	1	0	2	13:44
R. GreigC · #71	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	18:58
S. HallidayC · #83	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	5:47
S. PintoC · #12	1	0	1	3	1	1	0	18:34
T. StutzleC · #18	1	1	1	5	1	0	0	20:27
B. TkachukLW · #7	1	2	0	3	2	1	0	13:00
F. ZetterlundLW · #20	0	0	0	3	2	0	0	7:03

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. ChabotD · #72	0	0	-1	1	2	1	2	15:59
N. JensenD · #3	0	0	-1	0	0	4	0	16:47
T. KlevenD · #43	0	0	0	5	3	2	4	19:33
J. SandersonD · #85	0	2	2	2	0	3	0	26:09
J. SpenceD · #10	0	0	0	2	1	0	0	15:28
A. ZubD · #2	0	0	2	2	2	2	0	23:28

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. UllmarkG · #35	27	1	26	.963	60:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

OTT

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

66.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Dec 10

NJ4@

OTT3

Feb 1

NJ1@

OTT4today

Apr 12

OTT3@

NJ4

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

OTT -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

NJ+13642%

OTT-16262%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗SpreadBet OTT -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

OTT beat NJ 4-1. T. Stutzle led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
NJ	1	0	0	1
OTT	1	0	3	4

Period scoring

NJ won 0 · OTT won 1

OTT

Play-by-play · 343 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·19:44
Paul Cotter faceoff won against Dylan Cozens
·
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·19:44
Puck in Netting
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·19:42
Paul Cotter shot blocked by Nick Jensen
·
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·19:15
Jordan Spence hit Evgenii Dadonov
·
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·19:13
Evgenii Dadonov Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·18:54
Lars Eller faceoff won against Paul Cotter
·
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·18:54
Puck in Benches
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·18:45
Giveaway by Tyler Kleven
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·18:41
Tim Stützle faceoff won against Paul Cotter
·
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·18:41
Shane Pinto Goal (15) Wrist Shot, assists: Michael Amadio (13), Jake Sanderson (34)
· ·
NJ 1·OTT 4
3rd·17:53
Ridly Greig faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 1·OTT 3
3rd·17:53
Tim Stützle Goal (25) Wrist Shot, assists: Brady Tkachuk (22), Claude Giroux (28)
· ·
NJ 1·OTT 3
3rd·17:25
Dawson Mercer Slap Shot Wide Left
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·17:22
Cody Glass faceoff won against Tim Stützle
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·17:22
Puck in Netting
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·17:21
Jesper Bratt shot blocked by Lars Eller
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:26
Nico Hischier faceoff won against Lars Eller
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:26
Goalie Stopped
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:24
Timo Meier Wrist Shot saved by Linus Ullmark
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:02
Shane Pinto faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:02
Video Review
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·16:01
Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by Timo Meier
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·15:31
Nico Hischier shot blocked by Artem Zub
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·15:00
Claude Giroux faceoff won against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·15:00
Tyler Kleven Interference against Nico Hischier
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·14:26
Tim Stützle shot blocked by Cody Glass
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·14:25
Tyler Kleven Wrist Shot saved by Jake Allen
·
NJ 1·OTT 2
3rd·14:17
Dougie Hamilton shot blocked by Timo Meier
·
NJ 1·OTT 2

Betting line

OTT -1.5·O/U 5.5·NJ +136/OTT -162

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ttawa Senators held off New Jersey Devils, 4–1.

OTT -1.5 cashed (won by 3). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

56.9%

ensemble · OTT favored

Elo Static
56.9%
P(OTT win)
68%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
56.9%
P(OTT win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
56.9%
P(OTT win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+136

Close price

+136

Open no-vig

40.7%

Close no-vig

40.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in NJ at OTT?: The model favors NJ, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

New Jersey DevilsOttawa Senators

Elsewhere in the NHL