Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at UTA?

The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1DAL

DAL

32-14-9

UTA

28-23-4

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-1VegasUTAH -120

DAL · top performer

Wyatt Johnston

C · #53

1Points

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

Kailer Yamamoto

RW · #56

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. BackC · #10	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	12:13
J. BennLW · #14	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	13:40
M. BourqueC · #22	0	1	-1	1	2	1	0	14:14
M. DucheneC · #95	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	14:37
A. ErneLW · #73	0	0	1	1	7	0	0	10:12
R. FaksaC · #12	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	11:12
R. HintzC · #24	0	0	-1	2	0	2	2	15:56
J. HryckowianC · #49	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	14:08
W. JohnstonC · #53	1	0	0	6	2	1	0	21:23
M. RantanenRW · #96	0	1	0	4	0	0	2	20:47
J. RobertsonLW · #21	0	0	-1	3	2	0	0	17:21
S. SteelC · #18	0	1	-1	0	1	0	0	13:36

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. CapobiancoD · #20	0	0	1	1	1	1	0	12:00
T. HarleyD · #55	1	0	-2	3	1	0	0	22:23
M. HeiskanenD · #4	0	1	0	5	1	3	0	25:35
E. LindellD · #23	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	22:39
N. LundkvistD · #5	0	0	-2	1	0	0	0	18:00
A. PetrovicD · #28	0	0	1	2	3	3	0	14:04

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. DeSmithG · #1	14	2	12	.857	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. ButLW · #19	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	10:57
M. CarconeLW · #53	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	13:06
L. CrouseLW · #67	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:54
D. GuentherRW · #11	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15:32
B. HaytonC · #27	0	1	2	1	2	0	0	17:28
C. KellerRW · #9	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	16:21
J. McBainC · #22	0	0	0	1	4	0	4	13:20
J. PeterkaRW · #77	0	2	2	1	0	0	0	17:50
N. SchmaltzC · #8	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:18
K. StenlundC · #82	0	0	-1	1	0	4	0	15:31
B. TanevLW · #13	0	0	-1	0	5	0	0	8:00
K. YamamotoRW · #56	2	0	2	2	1	0	0	13:56

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
I. ColeD · #28	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	17:27
N. DeSimoneD · #57	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	14:37
S. DurziD · #50	0	0	-1	1	1	2	2	18:26
J. MarinoD · #6	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	20:31
N. SchmidtD · #88	0	0	1	0	2	1	4	18:33
M. SergachevD · #98	0	0	-1	1	0	0	0	25:17

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. VejmelkaG · #70	32	3	29	.906	58:29

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

DAL leads series 2-1

Nov 29

UTA3@

DAL4

Jan 16

DAL1@

UTA2

Feb 1

DAL3@

UTA2today

Mar 17

UTA6@

DAL3

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DAL+10050%

UTA-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 14 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat UTA 3-2. W. Johnston led the way — 1 G · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
DAL	3	0	0	3
UTA	1	0	1	2

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · UTA won 1

DAL

UTA

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·19:55
JJ Peterka Snap Shot Wide Right
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·19:33
Mavrik Bourque faceoff won against Barrett Hayton
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·19:33
Icing
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·19:24
Mavrik Bourque faceoff won against Barrett Hayton
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·19:24
Puck in Netting
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·18:47
Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·18:47
Icing
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·18:44
Esa Lindell Snap Shot Wide Left
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·18:43
Esa Lindell Snap Shot Wide Right
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·18:42
Giveaway by Michael Carcone
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·18:29
Giveaway by Michael Carcone
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·18:10
Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·18:10
Off-side
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·17:48
Matt Duchene Snap Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·17:36
Thomas Harley hit Kailer Yamamoto
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·17:24
Takeaway by Thomas Harley
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·16:51
Sean Durzi Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·16:40
Lawson Crouse shot blocked by Kyle Capobianco
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·16:32
Jack McBain hit Mavrik Bourque
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·16:28
Mavrik Bourque shot blocked by Sean Durzi
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·16:18
Wyatt Johnston Backhand saved by Karel Vejmelka
· ·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·15:55
Nate Schmidt hit Mikko Rantanen
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·15:12
Giveaway by Adam Erne
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·14:42
Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Sean Durzi
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·14:38
Adam Erne hit Sean Durzi
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·13:50
Esa Lindell Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·12:59
Mikko Rantanen Snap Shot Wide Left
·
DAL 3·UTA 2
3rd·12:52
Jason Robertson Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka
·
DAL 3·UTA 2

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL +100/UTA -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 3–2.

DAL +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

55.6%

ensemble · UTA favored

Elo Static
55.6%
P(UTA win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
55.6%
P(UTA win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
55.6%
P(UTA win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in DAL at UTA?: The model favors UTA, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Dallas StarsUtah Mammoth

Elsewhere in the NHL