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FINAL+1DAL
DAL

DAL

32-14-9

32
UTA

UTA

28-23-4

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesDAL leads series 2-1VegasUTAH -120

Recap · NHL

allas Stars went into Utah Mammoth and beat them, 3–2.

DAL +1.5 cashed (UTA lost outright). Total stayed UNDER 5.5 by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

DAL · top performer

DAL
Jamie Benn

Jamie Benn

LW · #14

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

UTA · top performer

UTA
JJ Peterka

JJ Peterka

RW · #77

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Dallas Stars at Utah Mammoth · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
3
2
DAL32-14-9UTA28-23-4
DAL

DAL

32-14-9

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
UTA

UTA

28-23-4

2
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

10

Season series

DAL leads series 2-1

Nov 29UTAUTA3@DALDAL4
Jan 16DALDAL1@UTAUTA2
Feb 1DALDAL3@UTAUTA2today
Mar 17UTAUTA6@DALDAL3

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

UTA -1.5

Total

5.5

Defensive · -3.0 vs avg

Moneyline

DALDAL+10050%
UTAUTA-12055%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗SpreadBet UTA -1.5↗

Line movement · 8 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

5.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

DAL beat UTA 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
DAL3003
UTA1012

Period scoring

DAL won 1 · UTA won 1

3
1

1

0
0

2

0
1

3

DAL
UTA

Play-by-play · 286 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  3. 3rd·19:55

    JJ Peterka Snap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  4. 3rd·19:33

    Mavrik Bourque faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  5. 3rd·19:33

    Icing

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  6. 3rd·19:24

    Mavrik Bourque faceoff won against Barrett Hayton

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  7. 3rd·19:24

    Puck in Netting

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  8. 3rd·18:47

    Barrett Hayton faceoff won against Wyatt Johnston

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  9. 3rd·18:47

    Icing

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  10. 3rd·18:44

    Esa Lindell Snap Shot Wide Left

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  11. 3rd·18:43

    Esa Lindell Snap Shot Wide Right

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  12. 3rd·18:42

    Giveaway by Michael Carcone

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  13. 3rd·18:29

    Giveaway by Michael Carcone

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  14. 3rd·18:10

    Wyatt Johnston faceoff won against Nick Schmaltz

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  15. 3rd·18:10

    Off-side

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  16. 3rd·17:48

    Matt Duchene Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  17. 3rd·17:36

    Thomas Harley hit Kailer Yamamoto

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  18. 3rd·17:24

    Takeaway by Thomas Harley

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  19. 3rd·16:51

    Sean Durzi Snap Shot saved by Casey DeSmith

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  20. 3rd·16:40

    Lawson Crouse shot blocked by Kyle Capobianco

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  21. 3rd·16:32

    Jack McBain hit Mavrik Bourque

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  22. 3rd·16:28

    Mavrik Bourque shot blocked by Sean Durzi

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  23. 3rd·16:18

    Wyatt Johnston Backhand saved by Karel Vejmelka

    · ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  24. 3rd·15:55

    Nate Schmidt hit Mikko Rantanen

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  25. 3rd·15:12

    Giveaway by Adam Erne

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  26. 3rd·14:42

    Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Sean Durzi

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  27. 3rd·14:38

    Adam Erne hit Sean Durzi

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  28. 3rd·13:50

    Esa Lindell Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  29. 3rd·12:59

    Mikko Rantanen Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

  30. 3rd·12:52

    Jason Robertson Tip-In saved by Karel Vejmelka

    ·

    DAL 3·UTA 2

Team stats

DAL

Away

Stat

UTA

Home

32

Shots

14

50.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

10

29

Faceoffs W

22

12

Blocks

8

10

Giveaways

18

4

Takeaways

4

Betting line

UTA -1.5·O/U 5.5·DAL +100/UTA -120

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

1 of 14 skaters with EDGE
  • Roope HintzDAL · C
    BURSTS25998

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · UTA favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(UTA win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-120

Close price

-120

Open no-vig

52.2%

Close no-vig

52.2%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR