Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at STL?

The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+2CBJ

CBJ

27-20-7

STL

20-26-9

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesCBJ win series 2-0VegasSTL -102

CBJ · top performer

Kent Johnson

C · #91

2Points

—

SOG

STL · top performer

Jonatan Berggren

RW · #29

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CoyleC · #3	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	18:52
A. FantilliC · #19	0	1	2	0	5	0	2	18:48
B. JennerC · #38	0	1	0	1	5	0	0	13:44
K. JohnsonC · #91	1	1	1	4	0	0	0	11:00
I. LundestromC · #21	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	11:31
K. MarchenkoRW · #86	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	17:04
M. MarchmentLW · #17	1	0	2	1	1	1	2	16:46
S. MonahanC · #23	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	9:49
M. OlivierRW · #24	0	0	-1	2	4	1	0	16:49
C. SillingerC · #4	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	15:34
D. VoronkovLW · #10	0	1	1	0	3	1	2	11:31
M. WoodLW · #11	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	12:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. GudbransonD · #44	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	17:46
D. MateychukD · #5	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	17:04
I. ProvorovD · #9	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	23:18
D. SeversonD · #78	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	23:01
Z. WerenskiD · #8	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	22:58
E. ZamulaD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	14:34

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GreavesG · #73	33	3	30	.909	59:51

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BerggrenRW · #29	1	1	0	2	1	0	0	13:46
N. BjugstadC · #77	0	0	1	2	2	0	2	12:36
P. BuchnevichLW · #89	0	0	-3	4	0	0	0	18:20
D. DvorskyRW · #54	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	16:20
R. FabbriC · #9	0	0	-1	1	1	0	0	11:40
J. KyrouRW · #25	0	0	-3	6	2	0	2	17:42
B. SchennC · #10	0	2	-1	1	5	1	0	17:34
J. SnuggerudRW · #21	1	1	-1	2	0	1	0	17:06
O. SundqvistC · #70	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	14:26
P. SuterC · #22	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	18:05
A. ToropchenkoRW · #13	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	12:24
N. WalkerLW · #26	0	0	0	0	4	2	0	11:33

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. BrobergD · #6	0	0	-3	2	1	1	0	22:33
J. FaulkD · #72	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	21:58
C. FowlerD · #17	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	22:06
L. MaillouxD · #23	0	0	-1	2	1	1	0	16:16
C. ParaykoD · #55	0	0	-2	0	1	2	0	19:30
T. TuckerD · #75	1	0	1	1	1	2	0	14:16

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BinningtonG · #50	22	4	18	.818	59:25

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CBJ

Away

Stat

STL

Home

Shots

50.0

PCT

25.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CBJ win series 2-0

Nov 1

STL2@

CBJ3

Feb 1

CBJ5@

STL3today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

STL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CBJ-11854%

STL-10250%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet STL -1.5↗SpreadBet STL -1.5↗

Line movement · 20 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CBJ beat STL 5-3. K. Johnson led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
CBJ	2	2	1	5
STL	1	2	0	3

Period scoring

CBJ won 2 · STL won 0

CBJ

STL

Play-by-play · 303 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
CBJ 5·STL 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CBJ 5·STL 3
3rd·19:56
Takeaway by Egor Zamula
CBJ 5·STL 3
3rd·19:45
Logan Mailloux shot blocked by Dmitri Voronkov
·
CBJ 5·STL 3
3rd·19:43
Giveaway by Boone Jenner
CBJ 5·STL 3
3rd·19:30
Nathan Walker faceoff won against Boone Jenner
·
CBJ 5·STL 3
3rd·19:30
Mason Marchment Goal (13) Wrist Shot, assists: Kirill Marchenko (27), Adam Fantilli (22)
· ·
CBJ 5·STL 3
3rd·19:23
Jordan Kyrou shot blocked by Denton Mateychuk
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·19:14
Adam Fantilli faceoff won against Brayden Schenn
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·19:14
Icing
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·19:09
Kirill Marchenko Wrist Shot Wide Right
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·19:05
Cam Fowler shot blocked by Mason Marchment
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·18:59
Logan Mailloux shot blocked by Ivan Provorov
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·18:42
Giveaway by Kirill Marchenko
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·18:39
Kirill Marchenko shot blocked by Logan Mailloux
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·18:37
Adam Fantilli Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·18:26
Adam Fantilli hit Dalibor Dvorsky
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·18:25
Dalibor Dvorsky Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·18:14
Philip Broberg hit Denton Mateychuk
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·17:50
Mathieu Olivier Backhand saved by Jordan Binnington
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·17:48
Mathieu Olivier Tip-In Wide Right
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·17:30
Zach Werenski Wrist Shot Wide Right
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·16:48
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Isac Lundeström
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·16:48
Puck in Benches
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·16:39
Nick Bjugstad faceoff won against Isac Lundeström
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·16:39
Goalie Stopped
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·16:36
Miles Wood Wrist Shot saved by Jordan Binnington
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·16:32
Giveaway by Jimmy Snuggerud
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·16:05
Mathieu Olivier hit Cam Fowler
·
CBJ 4·STL 3
3rd·15:57
Cam Fowler shot blocked by Mathieu Olivier
·
CBJ 4·STL 3

Betting line

STL -1.5·O/U 6.5·CBJ -118/STL -102

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olumbus Blue Jackets went into St. Louis Blues and beat them, 5–3.

CBJ +1.5 cashed (STL lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
50.0%
P(STL win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

-102

Close price

-102

Open no-vig

48.3%

Close no-vig

48.3%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CBJ at STL?: The model favors STL, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Columbus Blue JacketsSt. Louis Blues

Elsewhere in the NHL