Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at WSH?

The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1WSH

CAR

33-15-6

WSH

27-22-7

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-1VegasCAR -192

CAR · top performer

Shayne Gostisbehere

D · #4

1Points

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

Jakob Chychrun

D · #6

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. AhoC · #20	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	19:25
J. BlakeRW · #53	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	13:54
W. CarrierLW · #28	0	1	1	0	4	0	0	11:04
N. EhlersLW · #27	0	0	-1	1	1	1	0	14:58
T. HallLW · #71	0	0	-2	0	0	2	6	13:41
M. JankowskiLW · #77	1	0	1	1	3	1	0	12:42
S. JarvisC · #24	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	18:48
J. KotkaniemiC · #82	0	1	1	1	2	1	0	12:26
J. MartinookLW · #48	0	1	-1	0	0	1	0	16:00
J. StaalC · #11	0	1	-1	1	7	0	0	15:19
L. StankovenC · #22	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	13:37
A. SvechnikovRW · #37	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	15:16

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChatfieldD · #5	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	23:09
S. GostisbehereD · #4	1	0	0	3	1	2	0	15:59
K. MillerD · #19	0	0	-1	3	1	2	0	22:43
A. NikishinD · #21	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	13:14
J. SlavinD · #74	0	0	0	2	0	3	0	22:41
S. WalkerD · #26	0	0	0	0	3	3	2	22:10

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. AndersenG · #31	42	4	38	.905	61:42

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. BeauvillierLW · #72	0	0	-1	3	2	1	0	16:18
N. DowdC · #26	0	0	0	2	4	2	0	14:13
B. DuhaimeRW · #22	0	0	-1	1	3	1	0	8:59
E. FrankC · #53	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:47
H. LapierreC · #29	1	0	-1	4	1	0	0	6:13
R. LeonardRW · #9	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	16:41
S. MilanoLW · #15	0	1	-1	2	0	0	0	8:29
A. OvechkinLW · #8	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	18:25
A. ProtasC · #21	0	2	2	3	0	0	0	19:15
J. SourdifRW · #34	1	0	1	5	3	1	0	18:40
D. StromeC · #17	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	21:48
T. WilsonRW · #43	0	1	2	1	3	0	0	21:24

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CarlsonD · #74	0	1	2	2	1	1	0	27:57
D. ChisholmD · #47	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	10:04
J. ChychrunD · #6	1	1	1	6	0	1	2	28:02
D. McIlrathD · #52	0	0	-1	2	3	0	0	9:15
R. SandinD · #38	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	20:50
T. van RiemsdykD · #57	0	0	-1	1	1	2	0	18:46

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. StevensonG · #33	22	3	19	.864	61:42

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

Nov 12

WSH4@

CAR1

Dec 12

CAR3@

WSH2

Jan 31

CAR3@

WSH4today

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CAR-19266%

WSH+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 25 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat CAR 4-3. J. Chychrun led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 6 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	OT	T
CAR	2	1	0	0	3
WSH	0	2	1	1	4

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · WSH won 3

CAR

WSH

Play-by-play · 349 plays

period

event

player

OT·1:42
Game End
CAR 3·WSH 4
OT·1:42
End of OT
CAR 3·WSH 4
OT·1:42
Challenge League - goal interference - goal
CAR 3·WSH 4
OT·1:42
Justin Sourdif Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (35), Ethen Frank (11)
· ·
CAR 3·WSH 4
OT·1:40
Justin Sourdif Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
OT·1:18
Jakob Chychrun Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
OT·1:06
Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun
CAR 3·WSH 3
OT·0:25
Jakob Chychrun Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
OT·0:17
Sebastian Aho Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
OT·0:00
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·19:43
Aliaksei Protas Tip-In Wide Left
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·19:36
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·19:36
Puck in Netting
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·19:35
Ethen Frank shot blocked by K'Andre Miller
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·19:25
Nic Dowd hit Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·19:17
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·19:17
Off-side
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·19:15
Jordan Staal hit Jakob Chychrun
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·18:51
Jakob Chychrun Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·18:50
Sean Walker hit Justin Sourdif
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·18:24
Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·18:22
Giveaway by Rasmus Sandin
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·18:08
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·18:08
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·17:20
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·17:20
Puck in Crowd
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·17:14
Anthony Beauvillier Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
3rd·17:09
Ryan Leonard Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·WSH 3

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -192/WSH +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Carolina Hurricanes, 4–3 in overtime.

WSH +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Hendrix Lapierre · PIT6:180.9864.3%89.1%6:18 TOI · 0.98 iXG · 64.3% CF · 89.1% xGF
Justin Sourdif · WSH19:000.7965.1%72.2%19:00 TOI · 0.79 iXG · 65.1% CF · 72.2% xGF
Aliaksei Protas · WSH19:300.7263.9%63.0%19:30 TOI · 0.72 iXG · 63.9% CF · 63.0% xGF
Jakob Chychrun · WSH28:360.5259.6%59.8%28:36 TOI · 0.52 iXG · 59.6% CF · 59.8% xGF
Mark Jankowski · CAR12:480.4745.5%50.1%12:48 TOI · 0.47 iXG · 45.5% CF · 50.1% xGF
Anthony Beauvillier · WSH16:240.4154.5%45.0%16:24 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 54.5% CF · 45.0% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Frederik Andersen · CAR38–4.905+1.1738–4 · .905 SV% · +1.17 GSAx
Clay Stevenson · WSH19–3.864-1.1019–3 · .864 SV% · -1.10 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.0%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
50.0%
P(WSH win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in CAR at WSH?: The model favors WSH, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Carolina HurricanesWashington Capitals

Elsewhere in the NHL