
CAR
33-15-6

WSH
27-22-7
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
ashington Capitals held off Carolina Hurricanes, 4–3 in overtime.
WSH +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
CAR · top performer

Sebastian Aho
C · #20
1
G
0
A
—
SOG
WSH · top performer

Aliaksei Protas
C · #21
0
G
2
A
—
SOG
NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


CAR
33-15-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
WSH
27-22-7
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
8
PIM
4
Season series
WSH wins series 2-1
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
CAR -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 12 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
WSH beat CAR 4-3.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| WSH | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
Period scoring
CAR won 1 · WSH won 3
1
2
3
OT
Play-by-play · 349 plays
- OT·1:42
Game End
CAR 3·WSH 4
- OT·1:42
End of OT
CAR 3·WSH 4
- OT·1:42
Challenge League - goal interference - goal
CAR 3·WSH 4
- OT·1:42
Justin Sourdif Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (35), Ethen Frank (11)
· ·
CAR 3·WSH 4
- OT·1:40
Justin Sourdif Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- OT·1:18
Jakob Chychrun Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- OT·1:06
Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun
CAR 3·WSH 3
- OT·0:25
Jakob Chychrun Slap Shot Wide Right
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- OT·0:17
Sebastian Aho Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- OT·0:00
Jordan Staal faceoff won against Dylan Strome
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- OT·0:00
Start of Overtime
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·19:43
Aliaksei Protas Tip-In Wide Left
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·19:36
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·19:36
Puck in Netting
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·19:35
Ethen Frank shot blocked by K'Andre Miller
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·19:25
Nic Dowd hit Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·19:17
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·19:17
Off-side
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·19:15
Jordan Staal hit Jakob Chychrun
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·18:51
Jakob Chychrun Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·18:50
Sean Walker hit Justin Sourdif
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·18:24
Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·18:22
Giveaway by Rasmus Sandin
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·18:08
Nic Dowd faceoff won against Sebastian Aho
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·18:08
Puck Frozen - Goalie
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·17:20
Dylan Strome faceoff won against Jordan Staal
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·17:20
Puck in Crowd
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·17:14
Anthony Beauvillier Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
- 3rd·17:09
Ryan Leonard Snap Shot Wide Left
·
CAR 3·WSH 3
Team stats
CAR
Away
Stat
WSH
Home
22
Shots
42
0.0
PCT
0.0
8
PIM
4
29
Faceoffs W
29
18
Blocks
10
16
Giveaways
18
6
Takeaways
2
Betting line
CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -192/WSH +160
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
John CarlsonANA · DSHOT MPH102.799+
Ryan LeonardWSH · RWSKATE MPH24.399
Alex OvechkinWSH · LWSHOT MPH97.399
Sean WalkerCAR · DSKATE MPH22.998
Ethen FrankWSH · CBURSTS22797
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.1%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+160
Close price
+160
Open no-vig
36.9%
Close no-vig
36.9%
Line barely moved · Graded: hit