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FINAL+1WSH
CAR

CAR

33-15-6

34
WSH

WSH

27-22-7

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesWSH wins series 2-1VegasCAR -192

Recap · NHL

ashington Capitals held off Carolina Hurricanes, 4–3 in overtime.

WSH +1.5 cashed (CAR lost outright). Total cleared the 6.5 OVER by 0.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

CAR · top performer

CAR
Sebastian Aho

Sebastian Aho

C · #20

1Points

1

G

0

A

—

SOG

WSH · top performer

WSH
Aliaksei Protas

Aliaksei Protas

C · #21

2Points

0

G

2

A

—

SOG

NHL · Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final / OT
3
4
CAR33-15-6WSH27-22-7
CAR

CAR

33-15-6

3
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
WSH

WSH

27-22-7

4
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

8

PIM

4

Season series

WSH wins series 2-1

Nov 12WSHWSH4@CARCAR1
Dec 12CARCAR3@WSHWSH2
Jan 31CARCAR3@WSHWSH4today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CAR -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

CARCAR-19266%
WSHWSH+16038%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗SpreadBet CAR -1.5↗

Line movement · 12 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

WSH beat CAR 4-3.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123OTT
CAR21003
WSH02114

Period scoring

CAR won 1 · WSH won 3

2
0

1

1
2

2

0
1

3

0
1

OT

CAR
WSH

Play-by-play · 349 plays

period
event
player
  1. OT·1:42

    Game End

    CAR 3·WSH 4

  2. OT·1:42

    End of OT

    CAR 3·WSH 4

  3. OT·1:42

    Challenge League - goal interference - goal

    CAR 3·WSH 4

  4. OT·1:42

    Justin Sourdif Goal (12) Snap Shot, assists: John Carlson (35), Ethen Frank (11)

    · ·

    CAR 3·WSH 4

  5. OT·1:40

    Justin Sourdif Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  6. OT·1:18

    Jakob Chychrun Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  7. OT·1:06

    Giveaway by Jakob Chychrun

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  8. OT·0:25

    Jakob Chychrun Slap Shot Wide Right

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  9. OT·0:17

    Sebastian Aho Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  10. OT·0:00

    Jordan Staal faceoff won against Dylan Strome

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  11. OT·0:00

    Start of Overtime

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  12. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  13. 3rd·19:43

    Aliaksei Protas Tip-In Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  14. 3rd·19:36

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  15. 3rd·19:36

    Puck in Netting

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  16. 3rd·19:35

    Ethen Frank shot blocked by K'Andre Miller

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  17. 3rd·19:25

    Nic Dowd hit Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  18. 3rd·19:17

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  19. 3rd·19:17

    Off-side

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  20. 3rd·19:15

    Jordan Staal hit Jakob Chychrun

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  21. 3rd·18:51

    Jakob Chychrun Snap Shot saved by Frederik Andersen

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  22. 3rd·18:50

    Sean Walker hit Justin Sourdif

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  23. 3rd·18:24

    Giveaway by Jalen Chatfield

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  24. 3rd·18:22

    Giveaway by Rasmus Sandin

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  25. 3rd·18:08

    Nic Dowd faceoff won against Sebastian Aho

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  26. 3rd·18:08

    Puck Frozen - Goalie

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  27. 3rd·17:20

    Dylan Strome faceoff won against Jordan Staal

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  28. 3rd·17:20

    Puck in Crowd

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  29. 3rd·17:14

    Anthony Beauvillier Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

  30. 3rd·17:09

    Ryan Leonard Snap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    CAR 3·WSH 3

Team stats

CAR

Away

Stat

WSH

Home

22

Shots

42

0.0

PCT

0.0

8

PIM

4

29

Faceoffs W

29

18

Blocks

10

16

Giveaways

18

6

Takeaways

2

Betting line

CAR -1.5·O/U 6.5·CAR -192/WSH +160

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 27 skaters with EDGE
  • John CarlsonANA · D
    SHOT MPH102.799+
  • Ryan LeonardWSH · RW
    SKATE MPH24.399
  • Alex OvechkinWSH · LW
    SHOT MPH97.399
  • Sean WalkerCAR · D
    SKATE MPH22.998
  • Ethen FrankWSH · C
    BURSTS22797

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · WSH favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(WSH win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+160

Close price

+160

Open no-vig

36.9%

Close no-vig

36.9%

Line barely moved · Graded: hit

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR