NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

27-22-4

CGY

22-26-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesCGY leads series 2-1VegasCGY -108

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off San Jose Sharks, 3–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (CGY won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

SJ · top performer

William Eklund

LW · #72

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Morgan Frost

C · #16

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

SJ27-22-4

CGY22-26-6

SJ27-22-4CGY22-26-6

27-22-4

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

CGY

22-26-6

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Skating
Player	+/-	G	A	PIM

	Goalie	Skating	Goalie
Player	GA	SA	SV	SV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Season series

CGY leads series 2-1

Nov 14

SJ0@

CGY2

Dec 17

CGY3@

SJ6

Jan 31

SJ2@

CGY3today

Feb 27

CGY4@

SJ1

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CGY -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ-11253%

CGY-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗

Line movement · 10 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat SJ 3-2.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	1	0	2
CGY	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · CGY won 1

CGY

Play-by-play · 330 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:54
Takeaway by Mikael Backlund
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:41
Will Smith Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:39
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:39
Icing
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:33
Macklin Celebrini Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:02
Morgan Frost Wrist Shot Wide Right
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:56
Morgan Frost hit Will Smith
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:40
Morgan Frost shot blocked by Tyler Toffoli
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:31
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:31
Timeout - Visitor
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:31
Puck in Netting
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:29
William Eklund Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:21
MacKenzie Weegar Slap Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:08
Will Smith hit Nazem Kadri
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·17:44
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·17:25
MacKenzie Weegar Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·17:19
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·17:19
Too many men/ice served by Michael Misa
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·17:00
Morgan Frost Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:56
Morgan Frost shot blocked by Sam Dickinson
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:46
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:45
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Michael Misa
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:45
Goalie Stopped
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:43
Mikael Backlund Poke saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:42
Matt Coronato Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Dmitry Orlov
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:32
Sam Dickinson shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:02
Giveaway by John Klingberg
SJ 2·CGY 3

Team stats

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

16.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Betting line

CGY -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ -112/CGY -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 13 skaters with EDGE

Yan KuznetsovCGY · D
SHOT MPH100.297
Mikael BacklundCGY · C
SHOT MPH93.594
Adam KlapkaCGY · RW
SHOT MPH92.691
Joel FarabeeCGY · LW
DIST MI215.486
Matt CoronatoCGY · RW
DIST MI214.185

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.1%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CGY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CGY vs SJ.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

141

projections · 129 high confidence

Shots on goal

Macklin CelebriniSJ
3.4± 1.1high
Blake ColemanCGY
2.7± 1.6high
Matt CoronatoCGY
2.3± 1.4high

Goals

Macklin CelebriniSJ
0.6± 0.8high
Blake ColemanCGY
0.4± 0.7high
Morgan FrostCGY
0.4± 0.7high

Points

Macklin CelebriniSJ
1.4± 1.4high
William EklundSJ
0.9± 1.1high
Matt CoronatoCGY
0.8± 0.8high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands