NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+1CGY

27-22-4

CGY

22-26-6

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesCGY leads series 2-1VegasCGY -108

SJ · top performer

Will Smith

C · #2

1Points

—

SOG

CGY · top performer

Morgan Frost

C · #16

2Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. CelebriniC · #71	0	0	-1	5	2	0	0	23:40
W. EklundLW · #72	0	1	0	1	1	1	0	14:35
A. GaudetteRW · #81	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	10:09
B. GoodrowC · #23	0	0	0	0	1	1	10	10:23
C. GrafRW · #51	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	19:09
P. KurashevC · #96	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	13:33
M. MisaC · #77	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	10:02
Z. OstapchukC · #63	0	0	-1	0	1	0	4	11:38
R. ReavesRW · #75	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	6:33
W. SmithC · #2	1	0	-1	5	1	1	0	19:03
T. ToffoliC · #73	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	18:08
A. WennbergC · #21	0	1	-1	2	1	1	0	24:30

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. DesharnaisD · #5	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	19:01
S. DickinsonD · #6	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	19:24
M. FerraroD · #38	0	0	0	2	1	3	2	19:37
J. KlingbergD · #3	0	0	-2	2	0	1	2	19:36
S. MukhamadullinD · #85	0	0	0	1	1	5	0	15:02
D. OrlovD · #9	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	16:33

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. NedeljkovicG · #33	42	3	39	.929	57:38

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BacklundC · #11	0	1	1	3	0	0	0	20:40
M. CoronatoRW · #27	0	1	0	5	0	0	0	16:09
J. FarabeeLW · #86	1	0	1	1	0	1	0	15:35
M. FrostC · #16	1	1	1	5	2	0	0	17:13
M. GridinRW · #92	1	0	1	2	0	1	0	15:20
J. HuberdeauLW · #10	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	18:49
N. KadriC · #91	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	18:07
A. KlapkaRW · #43	0	0	0	2	4	0	0	13:23
R. LombergLW · #70	0	0	0	3	1	1	2	9:15
M. PospisilC · #76	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	7:24
Y. SharangovichC · #17	0	0	-1	6	0	1	0	17:12
C. ZaryC · #47	0	0	-1	1	0	1	0	12:54

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BahlD · #7	0	1	1	0	2	3	0	24:12
J. HanleyD · #44	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	11:41
Y. KuznetsovD · #37	0	0	0	1	2	3	0	18:50
B. PachalD · #94	0	0	0	3	4	0	2	10:34
M. WeegarD · #52	0	1	0	4	1	4	0	26:17
Z. WhitecloudD · #28	0	0	1	1	1	1	2	20:01

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. WolfG · #32	25	2	23	.920	59:51

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

Away

Stat

CGY

Home

Shots

25.0

PCT

16.7

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

CGY leads series 2-1

Nov 14

SJ0@

CGY2

Dec 17

CGY3@

SJ6

Jan 31

SJ2@

CGY3today

Feb 27

CGY4@

SJ1

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

CGY -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

SJ-11253%

CGY-10852%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗SpreadBet CGY -1.5↗

Line movement · 24 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

CGY beat SJ 3-2. M. Frost led the way — 1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
SJ	1	1	0	2
CGY	1	1	1	3

Period scoring

SJ won 0 · CGY won 1

CGY

Play-by-play · 330 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:54
Takeaway by Mikael Backlund
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:41
Will Smith Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:39
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:39
Icing
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:33
Macklin Celebrini Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·19:02
Morgan Frost Wrist Shot Wide Right
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:56
Morgan Frost hit Will Smith
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:40
Morgan Frost shot blocked by Tyler Toffoli
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:31
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Alexander Wennberg
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:31
Timeout - Visitor
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:31
Puck in Netting
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:29
William Eklund Snap Shot saved by Dustin Wolf
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:21
MacKenzie Weegar Slap Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·18:08
Will Smith hit Nazem Kadri
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·17:44
Giveaway by MacKenzie Weegar
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·17:25
MacKenzie Weegar Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·17:19
Macklin Celebrini faceoff won against Nazem Kadri
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·17:19
Too many men/ice served by Michael Misa
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·17:00
Morgan Frost Wrist Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:56
Morgan Frost shot blocked by Sam Dickinson
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:46
Matvei Gridin Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:45
Morgan Frost faceoff won against Michael Misa
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:45
Goalie Stopped
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:43
Mikael Backlund Poke saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:42
Matt Coronato Snap Shot saved by Alex Nedeljkovic
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:38
Giveaway by Dmitry Orlov
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:32
Sam Dickinson shot blocked by MacKenzie Weegar
·
SJ 2·CGY 3
3rd·16:02
Giveaway by John Klingberg
SJ 2·CGY 3

Betting line

CGY -1.5·O/U 6.5·SJ -112/CGY -108

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

algary Flames held off San Jose Sharks, 3–2.

SJ +1.5 cashed (CGY won by 1). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Morgan Frost · CGY17:060.8665.9%74.0%17:06 TOI · 0.86 iXG · 65.9% CF · 74.0% xGF
Nazem Kadri · COL18:120.7877.5%68.4%18:12 TOI · 0.78 iXG · 77.5% CF · 68.4% xGF
Alexander Wennberg · SJS24:420.7642.1%46.6%24:42 TOI · 0.76 iXG · 42.1% CF · 46.6% xGF
Yegor Sharangovich · CGY17:300.6447.5%54.0%17:30 TOI · 0.64 iXG · 47.5% CF · 54.0% xGF
Will Smith · SJS19:240.5552.3%54.2%19:24 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 52.3% CF · 54.2% xGF
Macklin Celebrini · SJS26:480.4449.1%53.9%26:48 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 49.1% CF · 53.9% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Alex Nedeljkovic · SJS39–3.929+1.4339–3 · .929 SV% · +1.43 GSAx
Dustin Wolf · CGY23–2.920+0.8823–2 · .920 SV% · +0.88 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.8%

ensemble · CGY favored

Elo Static
50.8%
P(CGY win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.8%
P(CGY win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.8%
P(CGY win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Team pages

San Jose SharksCalgary Flames

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