Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at DET?

The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.

When is the pick logged, and can it change?

Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

NHL game · live box score, betting context · The One Analytics

FINAL+5COL

COL

36-8-9

DET

32-18-6

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesCOL leads series 1-0VegasCOL -130

COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

3Points

—

SOG

DET · top performer

Dylan Larkin

C · #71

0Points

—

SOG

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. BardakovC · #93	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	8:14
G. BrindleyC · #54	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	8:07
R. ColtonC · #20	1	0	1	3	1	0	0	14:56
J. DruryC · #18	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	15:38
P. KellyC · #17	1	0	1	1	1	0	2	14:20
J. KivirantaLW · #94	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	13:35
A. LehkonenLW · #62	0	2	3	1	0	0	0	18:41
N. MacKinnonC · #29	2	1	3	4	0	2	0	21:36
T. MakarLW · #16	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:01
B. NelsonC · #11	0	1	1	1	0	1	2	19:38
V. NichushkinRW · #13	0	1	3	1	0	0	0	22:57
V. OlofssonLW · #95	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	12:32

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BurnsD · #84	1	0	2	1	0	0	0	20:52
S. GirardD · #49	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	18:56
C. MakarD · #8	0	0	3	1	1	0	0	26:30
S. MalinskiD · #70	0	0	4	2	0	4	0	20:44
J. MansonD · #42	0	1	1	1	2	2	2	19:48
K. MiddletonD · #67	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	8:55

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BlackwoodG · #39	28	0	28	1.000	60:00

Forwards

forwards box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AppletonC · #22	0	0	-2	1	1	1	0	13:46
J.T. CompherLW · #37	0	0	-2	1	1	0	4	13:54
A. CoppC · #18	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	17:25
A. DeBrincatRW · #93	0	0	-1	3	1	0	0	16:34
E. FinnieC · #58	0	0	-2	0	1	1	0	13:03
P. KaneRW · #88	0	0	-1	2	0	0	0	17:00
M. KasperC · #92	0	0	-2	2	0	0	0	14:33
D. LarkinC · #71	0	0	-2	4	0	0	0	19:11
M. RasmussenC · #27	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	12:26
L. RaymondLW · #23	0	0	-2	3	0	0	0	15:44
E. SoderblomLW · #85	0	0	0	1	7	2	0	10:56
J. van RiemsdykLW · #21	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	11:07

Defensemen

defenses box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Bernard-DockerD · #25	0	0	-2	2	0	1	0	17:44
B. ChiarotD · #8	0	0	-2	2	1	2	0	16:56
E. GustafssonD · #56	0	0	-1	1	1	0	2	20:06
A. JohanssonD · #20	0	0	-2	1	1	3	0	21:44
A. Sandin-PellikkaD · #44	0	0	-1	0	0	1	0	17:25
M. SeiderD · #53	0	0	-2	0	2	1	0	24:26

Goalies

goalies box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. GibsonG · #36	17	4	13	.765	40:00
C. TalbotG · #39	4	1	3	.750	20:00

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

PIM

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

Shots

0.0

PCT

0.0

PIM

Faceoffs W

Blocks

Giveaways

Takeaways

Season series

COL leads series 1-0

Jan 31

COL5@

DET0today

Feb 3

DET2@

COL0

Model & market

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COL-13057%

DET+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 23 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat DET 5-0. N. MacKinnon led the way — 2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	T
COL	2	2	1	5
DET	0	0	0	0

Period scoring

COL won 3 · DET won 0

COL

DET

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period

event

player

3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·18:56
Giveaway by Brock Nelson
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·18:42
Giveaway by Erik Gustafsson
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·18:39
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·18:39
Off-side
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·18:10
Elmer Soderblom hit Keaton Middleton
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·17:47
Elmer Soderblom hit Taylor Makar
· ·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·17:03
J.T. Compher hit Jack Drury
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·16:54
Takeaway by Parker Kelly
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·16:29
Erik Gustafsson shot blocked by Samuel Girard
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·16:27
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·16:27
Puck in Netting
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·16:25
Erik Gustafsson shot blocked by Brock Nelson
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·16:06
Giveaway by Brock Nelson
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·15:42
Sam Malinski shot blocked by Albert Johansson
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·15:33
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Sam Malinski
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·15:23
Takeaway by Lucas Raymond
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·15:19
Giveaway by Alex DeBrincat
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·14:36
Josh Manson shot blocked by Michael Rasmussen
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·14:31
Brent Burns shot blocked by Elmer Soderblom
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·14:25
Brent Burns shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·13:53
Giveaway by Gavin Brindley
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·13:23
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Taylor Makar
· ·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·13:23
Puck in Netting
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·13:21
Taylor Makar shot blocked by Albert Johansson
· ·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·12:25
Axel Sandin-Pellikka Slap Shot Wide Left
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·12:05
Marco Kasper Backhand saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·11:49
Marco Kasper Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
COL 5·DET 0
3rd·11:47
Lucas Raymond Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 5·DET 0

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -130/DET +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 5–0.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

NHL EDGE · Possession & xG

Our PBP model

Shot-share, expected goals, and goalie goals-saved-above-expected — the control layer the box score can't show.

Skater · drove playTOIiXGCF%xGF%

Ross Colton · NSH15:060.5548.6%48.5%15:06 TOI · 0.55 iXG · 48.6% CF · 48.5% xGF
Valeri Nichushkin · CBJ23:060.5450.9%54.6%23:06 TOI · 0.54 iXG · 50.9% CF · 54.6% xGF
Dylan Larkin · DET19:180.5162.2%59.1%19:18 TOI · 0.51 iXG · 62.2% CF · 59.1% xGF
Parker Kelly · COL14:300.4960.0%81.6%14:30 TOI · 0.49 iXG · 60.0% CF · 81.6% xGF
Marco Kasper · DET14:540.4463.9%65.6%14:54 TOI · 0.44 iXG · 63.9% CF · 65.6% xGF
Nathan MacKinnon · COL21:360.4151.9%54.1%21:36 TOI · 0.41 iXG · 51.9% CF · 54.1% xGF

GoalieSV–GASV%GSAx

Mackenzie Blackwood · COL28–01.000+2.7628–0 · 1.000 SV% · +2.76 GSAx
Cam Talbot · DET3–1.750-0.703–1 · .750 SV% · -0.70 GSAx
John Gibson · DET13–4.765-2.2213–4 · .765 SV% · -2.22 GSAx

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

52.4%

ensemble · DET favored

Elo Static
52.4%
P(DET win)
69%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(DET win)
15%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
52.4%
P(DET win)
16%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

1 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

How we read this game

Which side does The One Analytics' model favor in COL at DET?: The model favors DET, based on a weighted edge across matchup factors. The pick is logged before the game and graded in public.
When is the pick logged, and can it change?: Every model pick is timestamped before the game starts and is never edited after the fact.

Team pages

Colorado AvalancheDetroit Red Wings

Elsewhere in the NHL