
COL
36-8-9

DET
32-18-6
Historical comparables
Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates
basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year
Recap · NHL
olorado Avalanche went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 5–0.
COL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
COL · top performer

Nathan MacKinnon
C · #29
2
G
1
A
—
SOG
DET · top performer

Mason Appleton
C · #22
0
G
0
A
—
SOG
NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings · final
NHL · Box scoreEDGE


COL
36-8-9
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
DET
32-18-6
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Skating | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | +/- | G | A | PIM |
| Goalie | Skating | Goalie | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | GA | SA | SV | SV% |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
6
PIM
6
Season series
COL leads series 1-0
Vegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
COL -1.5
Total
6.5
Defensive · -2.0 vs avg
Moneyline
Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 7 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
6.5
0.0 since open
How it ended
COL beat DET 5-0.
Last play
Game End
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Period scoring
COL won 3 · DET won 0
1
2
3
Play-by-play · 309 plays
- 3rd·20:00
Game End
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·20:00
End of 3rd Period
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·18:56
Giveaway by Brock Nelson
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·18:42
Giveaway by Erik Gustafsson
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·18:39
Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Brock Nelson
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·18:39
Off-side
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·18:10
Elmer Soderblom hit Keaton Middleton
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·17:47
Elmer Soderblom hit Taylor Makar
· ·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·17:03
J.T. Compher hit Jack Drury
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·16:54
Takeaway by Parker Kelly
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·16:29
Erik Gustafsson shot blocked by Samuel Girard
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·16:27
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Jack Drury
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·16:27
Puck in Netting
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·16:25
Erik Gustafsson shot blocked by Brock Nelson
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·16:06
Giveaway by Brock Nelson
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·15:42
Sam Malinski shot blocked by Albert Johansson
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·15:33
Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Sam Malinski
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·15:23
Takeaway by Lucas Raymond
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·15:19
Giveaway by Alex DeBrincat
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·14:36
Josh Manson shot blocked by Michael Rasmussen
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·14:31
Brent Burns shot blocked by Elmer Soderblom
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·14:25
Brent Burns shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·13:53
Giveaway by Gavin Brindley
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·13:23
J.T. Compher faceoff won against Taylor Makar
· ·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·13:23
Puck in Netting
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·13:21
Taylor Makar shot blocked by Albert Johansson
· ·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·12:25
Axel Sandin-Pellikka Slap Shot Wide Left
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·12:05
Marco Kasper Backhand saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·11:49
Marco Kasper Wrist Shot Wide Left
·
COL 5·DET 0
- 3rd·11:47
Lucas Raymond Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood
·
COL 5·DET 0
Team stats
COL
Away
Stat
DET
Home
21
Shots
28
0.0
PCT
0.0
6
PIM
6
27
Faceoffs W
32
13
Blocks
14
19
Giveaways
14
6
Takeaways
4
Betting line
COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -130/DET +110
NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 24 skaters with EDGE
Ross ColtonCOL · CSKATE MPH23.799+
Nathan MacKinnonCOL · CBURSTS8799+
Cale MakarCOL · DSKATE MPH23.999+
Moritz SeiderDET · DDIST MI299.899
Alex DeBrincatDET · RWDIST MI252.196
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.2%
ensemble · DET favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
33%
weight
Goalie Starter
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
32%
weight
Xg Blend
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DET win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
The receipts
Closing-line value.
0.00
CLV pp
Open price
+110
Close price
+110
Open no-vig
45.7%
Close no-vig
45.7%
Line barely moved · Graded: miss