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FINAL+5COL
COL

COL

36-8-9

50
DET

DET

32-18-6

Historical comparables

Games like this · top 6 from 998 candidates

basis · elo_diff + win_prob + day_of_year

NHLSat, Jan 31FinalSeriesCOL leads series 1-0VegasCOL -130

Recap · NHL

olorado Avalanche went into Detroit Red Wings and beat them, 5–0.

COL -1.5 cashed (won by 5). Total stayed UNDER 6.5 by 1.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

COL · top performer

COL
Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

C · #29

3Points

2

G

1

A

—

SOG

DET · top performer

DET
Mason Appleton

Mason Appleton

C · #22

0Points

0

G

0

A

—

SOG

NHL · Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings · final

NHL · Box scoreEDGE

Final
5
0
COL36-8-9DET32-18-6
COL

COL

36-8-9

5
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%
DET

DET

32-18-6

0
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
Skating
Player+/-GAPIM
GoalieSkatingGoalie
PlayerGASASVSV%

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

6

PIM

6

Season series

COL leads series 1-0

Jan 31COLCOL5@DETDET0today
Feb 3DETDET2@COLCOL0

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

COL -1.5

Total

6.5

Defensive · -2.0 vs avg

Moneyline

COLCOL-13057%
DETDET+11048%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet COL -1.5↗SpreadBet COL -1.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

1.5

0.0 since open

Total

6.5

0.0 since open

How it ended

COL beat DET 5-0.

Last play

Game End

Linescore (quarters)

Team123T
COL2215
DET0000

Period scoring

COL won 3 · DET won 0

2
0

1

2
0

2

1
0

3

COL
DET

Play-by-play · 309 plays

period
event
player
  1. 3rd·20:00

    Game End

    COL 5·DET 0

  2. 3rd·20:00

    End of 3rd Period

    COL 5·DET 0

  3. 3rd·18:56

    Giveaway by Brock Nelson

    COL 5·DET 0

  4. 3rd·18:42

    Giveaway by Erik Gustafsson

    COL 5·DET 0

  5. 3rd·18:39

    Dylan Larkin faceoff won against Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  6. 3rd·18:39

    Off-side

    COL 5·DET 0

  7. 3rd·18:10

    Elmer Soderblom hit Keaton Middleton

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  8. 3rd·17:47

    Elmer Soderblom hit Taylor Makar

    · ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  9. 3rd·17:03

    J.T. Compher hit Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  10. 3rd·16:54

    Takeaway by Parker Kelly

    COL 5·DET 0

  11. 3rd·16:29

    Erik Gustafsson shot blocked by Samuel Girard

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  12. 3rd·16:27

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Jack Drury

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  13. 3rd·16:27

    Puck in Netting

    COL 5·DET 0

  14. 3rd·16:25

    Erik Gustafsson shot blocked by Brock Nelson

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  15. 3rd·16:06

    Giveaway by Brock Nelson

    COL 5·DET 0

  16. 3rd·15:42

    Sam Malinski shot blocked by Albert Johansson

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  17. 3rd·15:33

    Alex DeBrincat shot blocked by Sam Malinski

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  18. 3rd·15:23

    Takeaway by Lucas Raymond

    COL 5·DET 0

  19. 3rd·15:19

    Giveaway by Alex DeBrincat

    COL 5·DET 0

  20. 3rd·14:36

    Josh Manson shot blocked by Michael Rasmussen

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  21. 3rd·14:31

    Brent Burns shot blocked by Elmer Soderblom

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  22. 3rd·14:25

    Brent Burns shot blocked by Jacob Bernard-Docker

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  23. 3rd·13:53

    Giveaway by Gavin Brindley

    COL 5·DET 0

  24. 3rd·13:23

    J.T. Compher faceoff won against Taylor Makar

    · ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  25. 3rd·13:23

    Puck in Netting

    COL 5·DET 0

  26. 3rd·13:21

    Taylor Makar shot blocked by Albert Johansson

    · ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  27. 3rd·12:25

    Axel Sandin-Pellikka Slap Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  28. 3rd·12:05

    Marco Kasper Backhand saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  29. 3rd·11:49

    Marco Kasper Wrist Shot Wide Left

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

  30. 3rd·11:47

    Lucas Raymond Wrist Shot saved by Mackenzie Blackwood

    ·

    COL 5·DET 0

Team stats

COL

Away

Stat

DET

Home

21

Shots

28

0.0

PCT

0.0

6

PIM

6

27

Faceoffs W

32

13

Blocks

14

19

Giveaways

14

6

Takeaways

4

Betting line

COL -1.5·O/U 6.5·COL -130/DET +110

DraftKings · via ESPN

NHL EDGE · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 24 skaters with EDGE
  • Ross ColtonCOL · C
    SKATE MPH23.799+
  • Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C
    BURSTS8799+
  • Cale MakarCOL · D
    SKATE MPH23.999+
  • Moritz SeiderDET · D
    DIST MI299.899
  • Alex DeBrincatDET · RW
    DIST MI252.196

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.2%

ensemble · DET favored

  • Elo Static

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    33%

    weight

  • Goalie Starter

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    32%

    weight

  • Xg Blend

    fallback · inputs missing

    50.0%

    P(DET win)

    34%

    weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

The receipts

Closing-line value.

0.00

CLV pp

Open price

+110

Close price

+110

Open no-vig

45.7%

Close no-vig

45.7%

Line barely moved · Graded: miss

Data via ESPN · NHL API · hockeyR