DEN#5 · American Football Conference

Denver Broncos

0-0 (0.0%) · -

Model verdict

Where they stand

The verdict · Elo rating

#3 of 32

Elo rating 1603.9 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings

Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade

Final 5 · 2026

2025-12-21 → 2026-01-25 · Full ATS profile →

latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01

Model picks on DEN

No graded picks for this league yet

Graded snap by snap

How good were they, snap to snap?

Their offense ranked 13th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 934 graded plays; the defense ranked 5th across 965.

EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.

934 off plays · 965 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds

OFFENSE · 2025 REG

+0.043

Team EPA per play

13th of 32

lg avg +0.009

DEFENSE · 2025 REG

-0.085

Team EPA per play allowed

5th of 32

lg avg +0.014

The full split934/965 plays

Offense — team-wide, every graded snap

All plays+0.04361

13th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG +0.018 (15th)

Success44.1%45

18th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 42.5% (19th)

Explosive7.6%58

14th of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 7.8% (18th)

Dropbacks+0.10068

11th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.039 (17th)

Rushes-0.05642

19th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.020 (11th)

Defense — allowed, lower is better

All plays-0.08587

5th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG -0.093 (3rd)

Success37.1%99+

1st of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 39.1% (1st)

Explosive5.0%99+

1st of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 6.6% (3rd)

Dropbacks-0.07484

6th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG -0.057 (2nd)

Rushes-0.10587

5th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.160 (6th)

Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.

Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.

Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.018 · +0.026

Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG -0.085 · 2024 REG -0.093 · +0.007

Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.

nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 934 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1

nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.

Stat leaders

Who carries them

Passing yards

1Bo Nix25 TD3,931

Rushing yards

1J.K. Dobbins4 TD772
2RJ Harvey7 TD540
3Bo Nix5 TD356
4Jaleel McLaughlin1 TD187
5Marvin Mims Jr.1 TD78

Receiving yards

1Courtland Sutton7 TD1,017
2Troy Franklin6 TD709
3Evan Engram1 TD461
4Pat Bryant1 TD378
5RJ Harvey5 TD356

Receptions

1Courtland Sutton17 G74
2Troy Franklin17 G65
3Evan Engram16 G50
4RJ Harvey17 G47
5Marvin Mims Jr.15 G37

Total TDs

Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.

Yards per carry

1J.K. Dobbins153 car5.0
2Bo Nix83 car4.3
3RJ Harvey146 car3.7

Min 50 carries.

2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries

Under center

What the QB is worth

QB value (our estimate)

Bo Nix

658 att · n=42 qualified QBs

Our QBR estimate53.8

EPA / play+0.110
Accuracy +-2.3%
Pressure0.2%

Built on +0.110 EPA/play and -2.3% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.

Box-score power tier · league of 32

Where they rank

Middle

avg rank 14.0

YDS

12th

Total yards

PASS

17th

Pass yards

RUSH

16th

Rush yards

PTS

15th

Points

TO

10th

Turnovers

Offensive profile · 2025

How the offense plays

Per-game · 17 weeks

Identity · Pass-leaning

66% pass · 34% rush

PASS

RUSH

Total yards

350vs 342 yds/GLeague avg

Passing yards

231vs 225 yds/GLeague avg

Rushing yards

119vs 117 yds/GLeague avg

Points scored

24.0vs 23.5 pts/GLeague avg

Turnovers

0.80vs 0.90 TO/GSlight edge

Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.

2026 Draft Class · 6 picks