Park factor
95 total idx
Oakland Coliseum run environment
Park factor boosts run scoring, so contact quality matters more tonight here.
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Baltimore Orioles at Athletics
BAL
BAL
65-68
PregameFri, 9:40 PM EDTMLB.TV
ATH
ATH
53-81
Verdict
Pass · no edge tonight.
The model doesn't see daylight against the posted line on this game. We don't surface negative-EV picks; check the drill-down for sub-model context.
Why this matchup
2 signals · model + marketSutter Health Park · Sacramento, California
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Drill down
Sub-model tables · ensemble breakdown · last meeting · book shop · player props
Pregame · scouting report
The matchup, end-to-end.
Probable starters, projected lineups, head-to-head this season, our model edge against the market — every angle on one surface.
Away starter
Brandon Young
SP · #63
9-3
W-L
3.50
ERA
1.36
WHIP
99
K
123.1
IP
Last 3 starts
vsTB-5.2 IP2 ER3 K
@TB-4.0 IP4 ER3 K
@MINW(9-3)6.0 IP1 ER4 K
Home starter
Jacob Lopez
SP · #57
5-4
W-L
4.98
ERA
1.48
WHIP
90
K
94.0
IP
Last 3 starts
@HOU-6.0 IP1 ER9 K
vsTEX-6.0 IP2 ER6 K
vsTB-7.0 IP2 ER5 K
Vegas line
Lines post once a sportsbook releases them.
Model edge
Win prob59% / 41%
LeanAway · 9pp
ConfidenceEdge
Head to head
SeriesATH leads series 2-1
TypeRegular Season Series
Scouting report · pre-game
ATH vs BAL.
ATH is 4-6 recently; BAL is 5-5.
41.2%
model · ATH win prob
Recent form
- ATH4–6-1.1
- BAL5–5+1.2
Situational
- ATH2d rest
- BAL2d rest
- +0.0d differential
Rest is even. ATH has 0 straight road games; BAL has 2.
Model angle
Weather and park remove about 0.4 runs from the total environment.
- ▼Weather + park-0.4pp
Players to watch
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5strikeouts · ±1.7
Trevor Rogers · 5.5 K · last-10 6 vs season 4.8.
- Shane BazBAL5.3strikeouts · ±3.1
Shane Baz · 5.3 K · last-10 5.4 vs season 5.2.
- Jacob LopezATH5.0strikeouts · ±2.6
Jacob Lopez · 5 K · last-10 5.5 vs season 4.3.
Aggregated from r107 anatomy · r109 CLV history · r112 calibration · r118 line moves · r124 player projections · refreshes every 5 minutes
Player projections
ATH vs BAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
124
projections · 100 high confidence
Strikeouts
- Gage JumpATH5.7± 3.8medium
- Trevor RogersBAL5.5± 1.7high
- Shane BazBAL5.3± 3.1high
Hits
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.5± 1.1high
- Henry BolteATH1.3± 1.2high
- Lawrence ButlerATH1.2± 0.7high
Total bases
- Pete AlonsoBAL2.9± 2.5high
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.7± 2.4high
- Brian ServenATH1.6± 2.2medium
RBIs
- Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1.1± 1.6high
- Pete AlonsoBAL1.0± 1.4high
- Brian ServenATH0.8± 1.3medium
Earned runs
- Jeffrey SpringsATH3.8± 1.8high
- Kade MorrisATH3.8± 4.8low
- Gage JumpATH3.1± 2.4medium
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
BAL
league avg
ATH
.718
OPS
.719
.721
.319
OBP
.318
.319
4.54
Runs / G
◀
4.50
4.37
4.19
Team ERA
◀
4.16
5.46
1.34
WHIP
◀
1.30
1.50
8.0
K / 9
8.5
▶8.5
The One modelEdge
Fri, Aug 28BAL★
Orioles
69-90
vs58.7%BAL
ATH
Athletics
62-95
BAL 58.7%win prob41.3% ATH
BAL 1479 · ATH 1410Box score→
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
