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MIN#9 · National Football Conference
Minnesota Vikings
0-0 (0.0%) · -
Model verdict
Where they stand
The verdict · Elo rating
#10 of 32
Elo rating 1548.0 · as of 2026-05-04 · nfl_team_ratings
Rank within the full 32-team population on a published metric — no invented composites. How we grade
Final 5 · 2026
2025-12-07 → 2026-01-04 · Full ATS profile →
Won by 31 vs WSH, 31-0, 2025-12-07. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 8 at DAL, 34-26, 2025-12-14. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 3 at NYG, 16-13, 2025-12-21. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 13 vs DET, 23-10, 2025-12-25. Covered the spread (latest line).
Won by 13 vs GB, 16-3, 2026-01-04. Did not cover the spread (latest line).
latest-line grading · capture began 2026-05-01
Graded snap by snap
How good were they, snap to snap?
Their offense ranked 28th of 32 in the 2025 regular season, across 775 graded plays; the defense ranked 6th across 854.
EPA per play is how many points the average play was worth. Zero means the play was worth what an average play in that situation is worth. Across all 32 teams in 2025, offenses averaged +0.009 per play and defenses allowed +0.014 — those are averages of the 32 team rates, not play-weighted.
775 off plays · 854 def plays · win-probability band 0.05–0.95 · explosive = 20+ pass / 12+ rush yds
OFFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.133
Team EPA per play
28th of 32lg avg +0.009
DEFENSE · 2025 REG
-0.079
Team EPA per play allowed
6th of 32lg avg +0.014
The full split775/854 plays
Offense — team-wide, every graded snap
All plays-0.13313
28th of 32 · lg avg +0.009 · 2024 REG +0.070 (11th)
Success42.1%23
25th of 32 · lg avg 44.2% · 2024 REG 46.8% (11th)
Explosive7.0%35
21st of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 9.5% (7th)
Dropbacks-0.17213
28th of 32 · lg avg +0.043 · 2024 REG +0.173 (6th)
Rushes-0.07126
24th of 32 · lg avg -0.043 · 2024 REG -0.111 (23rd)
Defense — allowed, lower is better
All plays-0.07984
6th of 32 · lg avg +0.014 · 2024 REG -0.104 (2nd)
Success41.3%84
6th of 32 · lg avg 44.3% · 2024 REG 41.8% (6th)
Explosive5.6%94
3rd of 32 · lg avg 7.6% · 2024 REG 7.3% (10th)
Dropbacks-0.08887
5th of 32 · lg avg +0.050 · 2024 REG -0.055 (3rd)
Rushes-0.06968
11th of 32 · lg avg -0.042 · 2024 REG -0.194 (1st)
Bar = where they rank among all 32 teams. Number = the raw value.
Whole-team totals over every graded snap. The QB card further down rates one passer’s dropbacks from a different table, so its EPA/play is a different number, not a contradiction.
Offense EPA/play — 2025 REG -0.133 · 2024 REG +0.070 · -0.203
Defense EPA/play allowed — 2025 REG -0.079 · 2024 REG -0.104 · +0.025
Two separate completed regular seasons. This is what happened, not a forecast.
nfl_team_epa, 2025 REG, 775 plays, WP 0.05-0.95, computed 2026-06-18 · method r782-epa-v1
nflverse / nflfastR (CC BY 4.0), modified by theoneanalytics: aggregated to team/QB-season EPA. Win-probability band excludes garbage time. Regular season only — this table carries no playoff rows and no week-by-week splits.
Stat leaders
Who carries them
Passing yards
- 1J.J. McCarthy11 TD1,632
- 2Carson Wentz6 TD1,216
- 3Max Brosmer0 TD328
- 4Cam Akers1 TD32
Rushing yards
- 1Jordan Mason6 TD758
- 2Aaron Jones2 TD548
- 3J.J. McCarthy4 TD181
- 4Zavier Scott0 TD114
- 5Jordan Addison1 TD81
Receiving yards
- 1Justin Jefferson2 TD1,048
- 2Jordan Addison3 TD610
- 3Jalen Nailor4 TD444
- 4T.J. Hockenson3 TD438
- 5Aaron Jones1 TD199
Receptions
- 1Justin Jefferson17 G84
- 2T.J. Hockenson15 G51
- 3Jordan Addison14 G42
- 4Jalen Nailor17 G29
- 5Aaron Jones12 G28
Total TDs
- 1J.J. McCarthy10 G15
- 2Carson Wentz5 G6
- 3Jordan Mason16 G6
- 4Josh Oliver12 G4
- 5Jalen Nailor17 G4
Passing + rushing + receiving TDs combined.
2025 season · player_stats_weekly (nflverse weekly ingest) · counting boards ungated · yards/carry requires 50+ carries
Under center
What the QB is worth
QB value (our estimate)
J.J. McCarthy
243 att · n=42 qualified QBs
Our QBR estimate18.5
- EPA / play-0.175
- Accuracy +-5.5%
- Pressure0.3%
Built on -0.175 EPA/play and -5.5% accuracy over expected. Our estimate, not ESPN's QBR.
Box-score power tier · league of 32
Where they rank
Bottom tier
avg rank 28.0
YDS
28th
Total yards
PASS
30th
Pass yards
RUSH
23rd
Rush yards
PTS
27th
Points
TO
32nd
Turnovers
Offensive profile · 2025
How the offense plays
Per-game · 17 weeks
Identity · Pass-leaning
64% pass · 36% rush
PASS
RUSH
Total yards
297vs 342 yds/GSlight gap
Passing yards
189vs 225 yds/GBelow avg
Rushing yards
108vs 117 yds/GSlight gap
Points scored
18.0vs 23.5 pts/GBelow avg
Turnovers
1.40vs 0.90 TO/GBelow avg
Tick mark on each bar shows the league average for the 2025 season. The team identity strip up top reads at a glance: pass-heavy offenses usually score more in volume; run-heavy offenses control time of possession and game script.
2026 Draft Class · 8 picks
The new arrivals.
RND 1 · PICK 18
Caleb Banks
DT · Florida
RND 2 · PICK 51
Jake Golday
LB · Cincinnati
RND 3 · PICK 82
Domonique Orange
DT · Iowa St.
RND 3 · PICK 97
Caleb Tiernan
OT · Northwestern
RND 3 · PICK 98
Jakobe Thomas
SAF · Miami
RND 5 · PICK 159
Max Bredeson
FB · Michigan
RND 5 · PICK 163
Charles Demmings
CB · Stephen F. Austin St.
RND 6 · PICK 198
Demond Claiborne
RB · Wake Forest
Recent transactions
Latest player movement
- Jun 4
Waived WR Joaquin Davis. Signed WRs Trayvon Rudolph and Michael Briscoe to contracts.
- Jun 1
Named Nolan Teasley as the general manager.
- May 21
Signed DL Isaiahh Loudermilk to a contract.
Source · ESPN
Offense · 45
The attack
A. Jones Sr.
RB · #33
B. Yurosek
TE · #85
B. Brandel
C · #64
B. O'Neill
OT · #75
B. Nesbit
TE · #83
C. Tiernan
OT · #78
C. Wentz
QB · #11
C. Darrisaw
OT · #71
D. Lemieux
C · #62
D. Claiborne
RB · #21
D. Bell
WR · #89
D. Jackson
G · #74
D. Fleming
WR · #19
G. Bartholomew
TE · #86
G. Gerhardt
C · #58
H. Byrd
G · #68
J.J. McCarthy
QB · #9
J. Jennings
WR · #14
J. Jones
WR · #82
J. Huber
G · #60
J. Addison
WR · #3
J. Mason
RB · #27
J. Mims
RB · #17
J. Oliver
TE · #84
J. Jefferson
WR · #18
K. Owens
RB · #35
K. Murray
QB · #1
M. Sanders Jr.
WR · #31
M. Lang
TE · #81
M. Bredeson
FB · #45
M. Brosmer
QB · #12
M. Briscoe
WR · #46
M. Jurgens
C · #65
M. Price
WR · #4
R. Van Demark
OT · #72
T.J. Hockenson
TE · #87
T. Felton
WR · #13
T. Davis
WR · #40
T. Rimac
G · #67
T. Rudolph
WR · #30
T. Leigh
OT · #63
V. Lee
G · #66
W. Rouse
OT · #73
W. Fries
G · #76
Z. Scott
RB · #36
Defense · 42
The stop unit
A. Van Ginkel
LB · #43
A. Walker
LB · #56
B. Kamara
LB · #59
B. Cashman
LB · #51
B. Richter
LB · #98
B. Murphy Jr.
CB · #7
C. Banks
DT · #95
C. Stewart
LB · #49
C. Demmings
CB · #20
C. Chambliss
LB · #32
D. Armstead
CB · #38
D. Turner
LB · #15
D. Orange
DT · #97
D. McGlothern
CB · #6
E. Williams
DE · #99
E. Johnson II
DT · #93
E. Wilson
LB · #55
I. Rodgers
CB · #2
I. Loudermilk
DT · #69
I. Pace Jr.
LB · #0
J. Roberts
LB · #48
J. Thomas
S · #39
J. Ritzie
DE · #96
J. Golday
LB · #41
J. Thomas
S · #8
J. Redmond
DT · #61
J. Adams
LB · #54
J. Pierre
CB · #23
J. Ward
S · #24
J. Ross
LB · #52
J. Metellus
S · #44
K. Hailassie
S · #25
L
L. Rodriguez
DT · #50
M. Allen
CB · #29
S. Vilbert
DE · #91
T. Taimani
DT · #94
T. Thomas
S · #37
T. Jackson
S · #26
T. Batty
LB · #92
T. Chappell
CB · #28
T. Ingram-Dawkins
DE · #90
Z. Vaughn
CB · #34
Special teams · 4
