LAL
50-28
DAL
25-53
Recap · NBA
allas Mavericks held off Los Angeles Lakers, 134–128.
DAL +1.5 cashed (LAL lost outright). Total cleared the 234.5 OVER by 27.5.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
LAL · top performer
LeBron James
F · #23
30
Pts
9
Reb
15
Ast
DAL · top performer
Cooper Flagg
F · #32
45
Pts
8
Reb
9
Ast
NBA · Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks · final
NBA · Box scoreTRACKING
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 39 | 30 | 12-22 | 1-6 | 5-9 | +1 | 9 | 15 | |
| 39 | 21 | 9-13 | 3-5 | — | +5 | 7 | 1 | |
| 36 | 14 | 3-11 | 1-5 | 7-8 | -3 | 5 | 1 | |
| 19 | 13 | 5-9 | — | 3-4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | |
| 41 | 15 | 5-17 | 1-5 | 4-4 | +8 | 16 | 11 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 13 | 2 | 1-2 | 0-1 | — | +4 | 1 | 3 | |
| 12 | 5 | 2-2 | 1-1 | — | -19 | 1 | 1 | |
| 27 | 23 | 8-10 | — | 7-8 | -5 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -1 | 1 | 0 | |
| 3 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 | — | -14 | 1 | 0 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 | — | -6 | 0 | 1 | |
| Team | 128 | 47-91 | 8-27 | 26-33 | 49 | 36 | ||
| DNP: D. Knecht, A. Thiero | ||||||||
DNP: D. Knecht, A. Thiero
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Starters | ||||||||
| 20 | 7 | 2-4 | — | 3-4 | +19 | 7 | 0 | |
| 30 | 15 | 6-10 | 3-6 | — | -2 | 6 | 0 | |
| 32 | 13 | 5-9 | 0-2 | 3-6 | -5 | 6 | 7 | |
| 39 | 45 | 14-27 | 2-4 | 15-17 | +11 | 8 | 9 | |
| 25 | 8 | 2-6 | 2-6 | 2-2 | +2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Bench | ||||||||
| 18 | 8 | 3-5 | 2-3 | — | +6 | 2 | 0 | |
| 6 | 0 | 0-1 | — | — | -4 | 2 | 2 | |
| 21 | 9 | 4-7 | 1-1 | — | -10 | 4 | 0 | |
| 18 | 11 | 4-8 | 3-6 | — | +4 | 0 | 2 | |
| 25 | 13 | 4-7 | 0-1 | 5-7 | +10 | 2 | 5 | |
| 7 | 5 | 2-4 | 1-3 | — | -1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 134 | 46-88 | 14-32 | 28-36 | 38 | 27 | ||
| DNP: T. Smith, R. Nembhard, A. Johnson | ||||||||
DNP: T. Smith, R. Nembhard, A. Johnson
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
52
FG %
52
36
Ast
27
Season series
LAL win series 3-1
DAL119@LAL129LAL116@DAL110DAL104@LAL124LAL128@DAL134todayVegas line center
DraftKings via ESPN · 21+
Spread
LAL -1.5
Between — and 5
Total
234.5
High-scoring · +8.5 vs avg
Moneyline
LAL-12556%DAL+10549%Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.
Line movement · 5 snapshots
ESPN-tracked · 21+
Spread
1.5
0.0 since open
Total
234.5
0.0 since open
Headlines · top performers
Biggest swing: 20pp · 4th Quarter · 8:35
LALL. James
FGame leader · 39 min30-point game
30 PTS · 9 REB · 15 AST
DALC. Flagg
FGame leader · 39 min40-point game
45 PTS · 8 REB · 9 AST
How it ended
DAL beat LAL 134-128. C. Flagg led the way with 45 points and 9 assists. DAL outscored the other side 41-30 in the 1st quarter.
Last play
End of Game
Win probability
DAL vs LAL
Starters vs bench
production by unitLALstarters 73% of ptsStarters(5)
93 PTS · 41 REB · 29 AST
GS 81
Bench(6)
35 PTS · 8 REB · 7 AST
GS 29
DALstarters 66% of ptsStarters(5)
88 PTS · 28 REB · 18 AST
GS 80
Bench(6)
46 PTS · 10 REB · 9 AST
GS 40
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactBronny James · shooting foul
Cooper Flagg · shooting foul
Brandon Williams · misses two point shot
Linescore (quarters)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAL | 30 | 31 | 36 | 31 | 128 |
| DAL | 41 | 26 | 40 | 27 | 134 |
Period scoring
LAL won 2 · DAL won 2
Q1
Hachimura 12
Flagg 19
Q2
James 16
Flagg 7
Q3
Ayton 10
Flagg 10
Q4
Hayes 8
Flagg 9
Shooting comparison
52%
47-91
FG
52%
46-88
30%
8-27
3PT
44%
14-32
79%
26-33
FT
78%
28-36
Play-by-play · 503 plays
- Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAL 128·DAL 134
- Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAL 128·DAL 134
- Q4·5.4
Jaxson Hayes makes 1-foot driving dunk
LAL 128·DAL 134
- Q4·10.8
Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 126·DAL 134
- Q4·10.8
Max Christie enters the game for Cooper Flagg
·
LAL 126·DAL 133
- Q4·10.8
Mavericks offensive team rebound
LAL 126·DAL 133
- Q4·10.8
Naji Marshall misses free throw 1 of 2
LAL 126·DAL 133
- Q4·10.8
Jaxson Hayes personal take foul
LAL 126·DAL 133
- Q4·15.3
Rui Hachimura makes tip shot
LAL 126·DAL 133
- Q4·15.3
Rui Hachimura offensive rebound
LAL 124·DAL 133
- Q4·17.3
LeBron James misses 27-foot three point shot
·
LAL 124·DAL 133
+0.8pp
- Q4·26.6
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 124·DAL 133
- Q4·26.6
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 124·DAL 132
- Q4·26.6
Jaxson Hayes personal take foul
LAL 124·DAL 131
+4pp
- Q4·31.9
P.J. Washington defensive rebound
LAL 124·DAL 131
- Q4·31.9
LeBron James misses free throw 2 of 2
·
LAL 124·DAL 131
−0.5pp
- Q4·31.9
Marvin Bagley III enters the game for Max Christie
·
LAL 124·DAL 131
- Q4·31.9
LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2
·
LAL 124·DAL 131
−0.6pp
- Q4·31.9
P.J. Washington personal take foul
LAL 123·DAL 131
−3pp
- Q4·34.5
Max Christie enters the game for Marvin Bagley III
·
LAL 123·DAL 131
- Q4·34.5
Lakers Full timeout
LAL 123·DAL 131
- Q4·34.5
Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 123·DAL 131
- Q4·34.5
Mavericks offensive team rebound
LAL 123·DAL 130
−0.5pp
- Q4·34.5
Naji Marshall misses free throw 1 of 2
LAL 123·DAL 130
- Q4·34.5
Luke Kennard personal take foul
LAL 123·DAL 130
+1pp
- Q4·45.1
Luke Kennard makes 1-foot two point shot (LeBron James assists)
· ·
LAL 123·DAL 130
−0.5pp
- Q4·50.8
Luke Kennard offensive rebound
LAL 121·DAL 130
- Q4·53.8
LeBron James misses layup
·
LAL 121·DAL 130
+0.9pp
- Q4·1:09
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2
LAL 121·DAL 130
−0.7pp
- Q4·1:09
Cooper Flagg makes free throw 1 of 2
LAL 121·DAL 129
Team stats
LAL
Away
Stat
DAL
Home
47-91
fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted
46-88
52
FG %
52
8-27
threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted
14-32
26-33
freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted
28-36
36
Assists
27
12
Turnovers
7
Betting line
LAL -1.5·O/U 234.5·LAL -125/DAL +105
NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts
5 of 8 players in cohort
Jaxson HayesLAL · CTS%75.899+
Deandre AytonLAL · CCONT10.399
Luke KennardLAL · GTS%68.998- LeBron JamesLAL · FTOUCHES78.994
Rui HachimuraLAL · FCONT6.590
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
38.2%
ensemble · LAL favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(DAL win)
33%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Player projections
DAL vs LAL.
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
175
projections · 155 high confidence
Points
- Luka DoncicLAL35.3± 12.2high
- Cooper FlaggDAL23.6± 14.0high
- Kyrie IrvingDAL23.4± 13.6high
Rebounds
- Deandre AytonLAL9.1± 4.7high
- Daniel GaffordDAL7.8± 3.6high
- Moussa CisseDAL7.8± 4.7high
Assists
- Luka DoncicLAL7.6± 3.5high
- LeBron JamesLAL7.2± 2.6high
- Ryan NembhardDAL6.2± 5.9high
Blocks
- Dereck Lively IIDAL1.6± 1.3low
- Moussa CisseDAL1.2± 1.2high
- Daniel GaffordDAL1.1± 0.7high
Steals
- Marcus SmartLAL2.1± 1.8high
- Luka DoncicLAL2.0± 1.4high
- Cooper FlaggDAL1.4± 1.4high
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
hoopR-data
LAL
league avg
DAL
57.0%
Effective FG%
54.4
52.7%
49.9%
FG%
47.0
46.6%
114.8
PPG
114.9
114.1
25.7
Assists / G
25.0
25.3
14.1
Turnovers / G
14.0
▶14.0