NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+10PHX

PHX

43-35

120110

CHI

29-49

NBASun, Apr 5FinalSeriestied 1-1VegasPHX -11.5

Recap · NBA

hoenix Suns went into Chicago Bulls and beat them, 120–110.

CHI +11.5 cashed (PHX won by 10). Total stayed UNDER 243.5 by 13.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

PHX · top performer

Devin Booker

G · #1

19.5Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

CHI · top performer

Tre Jones

G · #30

23.7Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
D. BrooksF · #3	33	15	6-15	1-4	2-2	+10	4	3
M. WilliamsC · #15	26	14	6-8	—	2-2	+7	8	1
D. BookerG · #1	36	30	9-22	3-7	9-10	+3	3	4
J. GoodwinG · #23	24	12	5-5	2-2	—	0	7	1
J. GreenG · #4	36	25	11-21	2-7	1-2	+8	4	4
Bench
R. O'NealeF · #00	22	3	1-2	1-2	—	+5	3	2
O. IghodaroF · #11	22	6	3-3	—	0-2	+3	4	2
G. AllenG · #8	16	6	1-2	1-2	3-4	+1	5	2
C. GillespieG · #12	24	9	3-11	3-8	—	+13	3	3
Team		120	45-89	13-32	17-22		41	22
DNP: R. Dunn, R. Fleming, K. Maluach, A. Coffey, J. Bouyea, K. Brea

DNP: R. Dunn, R. Fleming, K. Maluach, A. Coffey, J. Bouyea, K. Brea

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
G. YabuseleF · #28	32	8	3-9	2-6	—	-12	9	1
I. OkoroF · #35	36	10	5-10	0-5	—	-3	4	5
L. MillerF · #11	33	17	7-14	2-5	1-1	-10	10	2
C. SextonG · #2	31	18	5-15	3-6	5-6	-10	9	1
T. JonesG · #30	31	29	12-20	1-4	4-4	-1	3	6
Bench
P. WilliamsF · #44	24	5	2-8	0-5	1-1	-11	1	3
L. OlbrichC · #47	16	1	0-1	—	1-2	+2	5	3
M. McClungG · #5	11	9	2-4	0-2	5-7	0	0	1
R. DillinghamG · #7	20	10	4-8	1-4	1-2	-4	4	2
Y. KawamuraG · #8	6	3	1-2	1-2	—	-1	1	2
Team		110	41-91	10-39	18-23		46	26
DNP: N. Richards, J. Giddey

DNP: N. Richards, J. Giddey

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

Series tied 1-1

Mar 6

CHI105@

PHX103

Apr 5

PHX120@

CHI110today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

PHX -11.5

Between 10 and —

Total

243.5

High-scoring · +17.5 vs avg

Moneyline

PHX-62586%

CHI+45518%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet PHX -11.5↗SpreadBet PHX -11.5↗

Line movement · 5 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

11.5

0.0 since open

Total

243.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowPHX ↔ CHI

Biggest swing: 10pp · 4th Quarter · 7:13

PHX

D. Booker

Game leader · 36 min30-point game

30 PTS · 3 REB · 4 AST

CHI

T. Jones

Game leader · 31 min

29 PTS · 3 REB · 6 AST

How it ended

PHX beat CHI 120-110. D. Booker paced them with 30 PTS, 3 REB, 4 AST. PHX outscored the other side 34-26 in the 4th quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

CHI vs PHX

Starters vs bench

production by unit

PHXstarters 80% of pts

Starters(5)

96 PTS · 26 REB · 13 AST

GS 68

Bench(4)

24 PTS · 15 REB · 9 AST

GS 28

CHIstarters 75% of pts

Starters(5)

82 PTS · 35 REB · 15 AST

GS 60

Bench(5)

28 PTS · 11 REB · 11 AST

GS 23

Clutch moments · top swings

ranked by WP impact

PHX4th Quarter · 7:13 · 100-94

+10pp→ 84% WP

Jordan Goodwin · makes 24-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)

PHX4th Quarter · 5:30 · 107-100

+8pp→ 89% WP

Devin Booker · makes 24-foot three pointer

PHX4th Quarter · 2:30 · 111-108

+9pp→ 89% WP

Collin Sexton · personal foul

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
PHX	30	33	23	34	120
CHI	30	26	28	26	110

Period scoring

PHX won 2 · CHI won 1

Green 9

Miller 12

Green 9

Jones 13

Booker 11

Yabusele 8

Brooks 11

Jones 7

PHX

CHI

Shooting comparison

PHX

CHI

51%

45-89

45%

41-91

41%

13-32

3PT

26%

10-39

77%

17-22

78%

18-23

Play-by-play · 497 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
PHX 120·CHI 110
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
PHX 120·CHI 110
Q4·1.2
shot clock turnover
PHX 120·CHI 110
Q4·23.8
Mark Williams defensive rebound
·
PHX 120·CHI 110
Q4·26.6
Isaac Okoro misses running pullup jump shot
PHX 120·CHI 110
Q4·29.6
Isaac Okoro defensive rebound
PHX 120·CHI 110
Q4·32.5
Jalen Green misses free throw 2 of 2
PHX 120·CHI 110
Q4·32.5
Yuki Kawamura enters the game for Tre Jones
·
PHX 120·CHI 110
Q4·32.5
Jalen Green makes free throw 1 of 2
PHX 120·CHI 110
Q4·32.5
Collin Sexton personal foul
PHX 119·CHI 110
Q4·33.0
Guerschon Yabusele makes tip shot
PHX 119·CHI 110
Q4·33.0
Guerschon Yabusele offensive rebound
PHX 119·CHI 108
Q4·35.1
Tre Jones misses driving layup
PHX 119·CHI 108
Q4·40.9
Mark Williams makes free throw 2 of 2
·
PHX 119·CHI 108
Q4·40.9
Mark Williams makes free throw 1 of 2
·
PHX 118·CHI 108
Q4·40.9
Collin Sexton personal foul
PHX 117·CHI 108
Q4·40.9
Collin Sexton lost ball turnover (Collin Gillespie steals)
·
PHX 117·CHI 108
−0.5pp
Q4·42.9
Collin Sexton defensive rebound
PHX 117·CHI 108
Q4·46.0
Dillon Brooks misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
PHX 117·CHI 108
Q4·53.9
Collin Gillespie offensive rebound
PHX 117·CHI 108
−0.5pp
Q4·55.4
Devin Booker misses driving layup
PHX 117·CHI 108
Q4·1:16
Collin Gillespie defensive rebound
PHX 117·CHI 108
Q4·1:22
Leonard Miller misses 22-foot three point jumper
PHX 117·CHI 108
−0.6pp
Q4·1:24
Bulls Full timeout
PHX 117·CHI 108
Q4·1:24
Bulls offensive team rebound
PHX 117·CHI 108
+0.5pp
Q4·1:24
Collin Gillespie blocks Tre Jones 's 1-foot driving layup
·
PHX 117·CHI 108
−0.7pp
Q4·1:33
Devin Booker makes 25-foot fade away jump shot (Jalen Green assists)
·
PHX 117·CHI 108
−4pp
Q4·1:55
Dillon Brooks defensive rebound
PHX 114·CHI 108
−0.8pp
Q4·1:55
Dillon Brooks blocks Leonard Miller's two point shot
·
PHX 114·CHI 108
−2pp
Q4·1:55
Leonard Miller offensive rebound
PHX 114·CHI 108
+2pp

Team stats

PHX

Away

Stat

CHI

Home

45-89

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

41-91

FG %

13-32

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

10-39

17-22

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

18-23

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

PHX -11.5·O/U 243.5·PHX -625/CHI +455

DraftKings · via ESPN

NBA TRACKING · Tonight’s standouts

5 of 7 players in cohort

Jalen GreenPHX · G
USG%31.798
Devin BookerPHX · G
USG%31.397
Dillon BrooksPHX · F
USG%28.693
Oso IghodaroPHX · F
CONT792
Grayson AllenPHX · G
USG%23.783

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · PHX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHI win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHI vs PHX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

175

projections · 145 high confidence

Points

Devin BookerPHX
24.6± 6.2high
Jalen GreenPHX
21.0± 10.3high
Dillon BrooksPHX
20.2± 8.1high

Rebounds

Josh GiddeyCHI
8.1± 4.3high
Mark WilliamsPHX
7.2± 2.3high
Nick RichardsCHI
6.7± 2.5high

Assists

Josh GiddeyCHI
9.9± 4.4high
Devin BookerPHX
5.8± 2.3high
Tre JonesCHI
5.2± 2.9high

Blocks

Matas BuzelisCHI
1.5± 1.4high
Mark WilliamsPHX
1.0± 1.3high
Jalen SmithCHI
0.9± 1.0high

Steals

Jordan GoodwinPHX
1.8± 2.1high
Collin SextonCHI
1.6± 1.3high
Jalen GreenPHX
1.2± 1.3high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

PHX

league avg

CHI

53.7%

Effective FG%

54.4

▶

54.7%

45.5%

FG%

47.0

▶

46.9%

112.2

PPG

114.9

▶

116.3

24.5

Assists / G

25.0

▶

28.5

13.6

Turnovers / G

◀

14.0

14.6

Data via ESPN · hoopR