NBA game · live box score, model edge, odds · The One Analytics

FINAL+29LAC

LAC

40-38

138109

SAC

21-58

NBASun, Apr 5FinalSeriesLAC win series 3-1VegasLAC -13.5

Recap · NBA

A Clippers went into Sacramento Kings and beat them, 138–109. It was a wire-to-wire rout.

LAC -13.5 cashed (won by 29). Total cleared the 228.5 OVER by 18.5.

ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page

LAC · top performer

Kawhi Leonard

F · #2

19.9Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

SAC · top performer

Dylan Cardwell

C · #32

16.6Game score

Pts

Reb

Ast

NBA · Box scoreTRACKING

Final

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
K. LeonardF · #2	30	26	9-18	3-9	5-5	+26	6	3
D. Jones Jr.F · #5	25	6	3-4	—	—	+21	3	1
B. LopezC · #11	19	9	2-5	1-3	4-4	+15	2	0
K. DunnG · #8	27	13	5-6	3-4	0-1	+16	6	4
D. GarlandG · #10	24	17	7-14	2-7	1-1	+10	4	6
Bench
J. CollinsF · #20	24	25	9-20	4-6	3-3	+15	4	2
N. OmierF · #55	5	5	1-1	—	3-3	-1	1	1
B. BogdanovicG · #7	3	0	0-2	0-2	—	-8	0	0
J. MillerG · #22	23	13	5-6	3-3	—	+21	2	6
B. MathurinG · #9	27	5	2-4	1-2	—	+15	6	5
T. Washington Jr.G · #15	5	0	—	—	—	-1	1	0
K. SandersG · #4	20	17	5-8	3-5	4-4	+14	0	1
C. ChristieG · #12	7	2	1-4	—	—	+2	2	1
Team		138	49-92	20-41	20-21		37	30
DNP: N. Batum

DNP: N. Batum

box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Starters
P. AchiuwaPF · #9	20	8	3-6	—	2-6	-22	5	0
M. RaynaudC · #42	33	11	5-12	0-1	1-2	-11	15	2
D. DeRozanG · #10	10	9	4-5	1-1	—	+2	0	0
D. CarterG · #22	36	21	8-14	0-5	5-9	-13	5	5
N. CliffordG · #5	38	18	8-16	2-7	—	-19	5	5
Bench
D. McDermottF · #7	11	3	1-3	1-3	—	-12	0	3
D. CardwellC · #32	27	15	7-8	1-1	—	-17	8	2
D. JeffriesG · #19	--	0	—	—	—	0	0	0
M. MonkG · #0	14	7	3-5	1-3	—	-19	0	1
D. PlowdenG · #29	36	15	5-13	3-9	2-3	-16	2	3
K. HayesG · #3	14	2	1-3	0-2	—	-18	2	4
Team		109	45-85	9-32	10-20		42	25
DNP: D. Eubanks, K. Murray

DNP: D. Eubanks, K. Murray

Stat compare

Headline stats · full table below

FG %

Ast

Season series

LAC win series 3-1

Dec 31

SAC90@

LAC131

Feb 7

LAC114@

SAC111

Mar 15

SAC118@

LAC109

Apr 6

LAC138@

SAC109today

Vegas line center

DraftKings via ESPN · 21+

Spread

LAC -13.5

Between 10 and —

Total

228.5

Standard · +2.5 vs avg

Moneyline

LAC-90090%

SAC+60014%

Implied probabilities back-computed from American odds — break-even win % a moneyline bet needs to be +EV.

SpreadBet LAC -13.5↗SpreadBet LAC -13.5↗

Line movement · 7 snapshots

ESPN-tracked · 21+

Spread

13.5

0.0 since open

Total

228.5

0.0 since open

Headlines · top performers

Game flowLAC ↔ SAC

Biggest swing: 5pp · 2nd Quarter · 9:58

LAC

K. Leonard

Game leader · 30 min

26 PTS · 6 REB · 3 AST

SAC

D. Cardwell

Game leader · 27 min

15 PTS · 8 REB · 2 AST

How it ended

LAC beat SAC 138-109. K. Leonard paced them with 26 PTS, 6 REB, 3 AST. LAC outscored the other side 36-20 in the 3rd quarter.

Last play

End of Game

Win probability

SAC vs LAC

Starters vs bench

production by unit

LACstarters 51% of pts

Starters(5)

71 PTS · 21 REB · 14 AST

GS 61

Bench(8)

67 PTS · 16 REB · 16 AST

GS 62

SACstarters 61% of pts

Starters(5)

67 PTS · 30 REB · 12 AST

GS 50

Bench(6)

42 PTS · 12 REB · 13 AST

GS 36

Linescore (quarters)

Team	1	2	3	4	T
LAC	42	29	36	31	138
SAC	32	27	20	30	109

Period scoring

LAC won 4 · SAC won 0

Leonard 13

DeRozan 9

Garland 8

Cardwell 18

Leonard 11

Achiuwa 9

Sanders 14

Carter 11

LAC

SAC

Shooting comparison

LAC

SAC

53%

49-92

53%

45-85

49%

20-41

3PT

28%

9-32

95%

20-21

50%

10-20

Play-by-play · 448 plays

period

event

player

Q4·0.0
End of Game
LAC 138·SAC 109
Q4·0.0
End of the 4th Quarter
LAC 138·SAC 109
Q4·23.5
Daeqwon Plowden makes running layup (Nique Clifford assists)
·
LAC 138·SAC 109
Q4·29.1
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
LAC 138·SAC 107
Q4·30.1
Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot
LAC 138·SAC 107
Q4·41.4
Norchad Omier defensive rebound
LAC 138·SAC 107
Q4·41.4
Devin Carter misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot
LAC 138·SAC 107
Q4·47.7
Kobe Sanders makes 23-foot three point jumper (Norchad Omier assists)
·
LAC 138·SAC 107
Q4·1:08
Nique Clifford makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot
LAC 135·SAC 107
Q4·1:13
Dylan Cardwell defensive rebound
LAC 135·SAC 104
Q4·1:16
Cam Christie misses driving floating jump shot
LAC 135·SAC 104
Q4·1:26
Devin Carter makes driving layup
LAC 135·SAC 104
Q4·1:35
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
LAC 135·SAC 102
Q4·1:39
Kobe Sanders misses driving layup
LAC 135·SAC 102
Q4·1:52
Dylan Cardwell makes 23-foot three point jumper (Daeqwon Plowden assists)
·
LAC 135·SAC 102
Q4·2:05
Maxime Raynaud defensive rebound
LAC 135·SAC 99
Q4·2:08
Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 24-foot three point jumper
LAC 135·SAC 99
Q4·2:21
Maxime Raynaud makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 135·SAC 99
Q4·2:21
Kings offensive team rebound
LAC 135·SAC 98
Q4·2:21
Maxime Raynaud misses free throw 1 of 2
LAC 135·SAC 98
Q4·2:21
Cam Christie personal foul
LAC 135·SAC 98
Q4·2:34
Norchad Omier makes free throw 2 of 2
LAC 135·SAC 98
Q4·2:34
Norchad Omier makes free throw 1 of 2
LAC 134·SAC 98
Q4·2:34
Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Jordan Miller
·
LAC 133·SAC 98
Q4·2:34
Kings Full timeout
LAC 133·SAC 98
Q4·2:34
Daeqwon Plowden personal foul
LAC 133·SAC 98
Q4·2:35
Maxime Raynaud lost ball turnover (Kobe Sanders steals)
·
LAC 133·SAC 98
Q4·2:53
Cam Christie makes two point shot
LAC 133·SAC 98
Q4·2:54
Cam Christie offensive rebound
LAC 131·SAC 98
Q4·2:57
Cam Christie misses driving floating jump shot
LAC 131·SAC 98

Team stats

LAC

Away

Stat

SAC

Home

49-92

fieldGoalsMade-fieldGoalsAttempted

45-85

FG %

20-41

threePointFieldGoalsMade-threePointFieldGoalsAttempted

9-32

20-21

freeThrowsMade-freeThrowsAttempted

10-20

Assists

Turnovers

Betting line

LAC -13.5·O/U 228.5·LAC -900/SAC +600

DraftKings · via ESPN

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

38.2%

ensemble · LAC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight
Elo Recent
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
34%
weight
Pace Efficiency
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SAC win)
33%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SAC vs LAC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

180

projections · 150 high confidence

Points

Kawhi LeonardLAC
25.5± 4.3high
Darius GarlandLAC
19.0± 5.5high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
18.0± 12.6high

Rebounds

Domantas SabonisSAC
10.6± 3.5high
Maxime RaynaudSAC
8.3± 2.4high
Precious AchiuwaSAC
8.2± 4.6high

Assists

Russell WestbrookSAC
7.5± 2.7high
Darius GarlandLAC
6.3± 2.3high
DeMar DeRozanSAC
4.8± 3.7high

Blocks

Dylan CardwellSAC
1.7± 1.7high
Keegan MurraySAC
1.4± 0.8high
Brook LopezLAC
1.3± 1.4high

Steals

Kris DunnLAC
1.6± 1.1high
Kawhi LeonardLAC
1.3± 0.9high
Russell WestbrookSAC
1.3± 1.6high

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

hoopR-data

LAC

league avg

SAC

55.9%

Effective FG%

◀

54.4

52.5%

48.5%

FG%

◀

47.0

46.7%

113.9

PPG

◀

114.9

111.0

23.8

Assists / G

25.0

▶

25.5

13.6

Turnovers / G

14.0

13.7

Data via ESPN · hoopR